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Grapevine, TX -- Women's Soccer, High School, 5A
Sunday, May 23, 2021
Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- May 23, 2021
The wells:
- 36994, conf, MRO, Hull 41-28TFH, Chimney Butte, Chimney Butte oil field is tracked here; see this post also;
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2021 | 18604 | 20539 |
| 2-2021 | 27787 | 24394 |
| 1-2021 | 33109 | 26452 |
| 12-2020 | 31350 | 24982 |
| 11-2020 | 2749 | 1874 |
- 37780, drl/NC, CLR, Brandvik 12-25H, Corral Creek, no production data, the Brandvik/Weydahl wells are tracked here; the unitized Corral Creek oil field;
- 37779, drl/NC, CLR, State Weydahl 12-36H, Corral Creek, no production data,
Covid-19 Vaccinations Update Here -- May 23, 2021
This is one of the worst "Sunday" reports since tracking begin.
No doubt it will pick up once students start returning to college later this summer.
Column 6 reports the number of vaccinations given in the previous 24 hours. All rows were "hidden" except the Sunday data.
Note: at one time, "we" were trending toward 4 million administered doses being reported in a Sunday report; most recent: 1.8 million doses.
|
|
|
Total Doses Administered |
Number of People Receiving At Least One Dose |
Fully Vaccinated |
Delta: Difference in daily doses from previous day |
Percent (B+C)/A |
Percent Of Americans Considered Fully Vaccinated |
|
Sunday |
May 23, 2021 |
285,720,586 |
163,309,414 |
130,014,175 |
1,779,363 |
102.66% |
50.72% |
|
Sunday |
May 16, 2021 |
273,545,207 |
157,485,596 |
123,282,685 |
2,712,865 |
102.64% |
48.10% |
|
Sunday |
May 9, 2021 |
259,716,989 |
152,116,936 |
114,258,244 |
2,369,784 |
102.56% |
44.58% |
|
Sunday |
May 2, 2021 |
245,591,469 |
147,047,012 |
104,774,652 |
2,127,998 |
102.54% |
40.88% |
|
Sunday |
April 25, 2021 |
228,661,408 |
139,978,480 |
94,772,329 |
3,020,948 |
102.66% |
36.97% |
|
Sunday |
April 18, 2021 |
209,406,814 |
131,247,546 |
84,263,408 |
3,534,901 |
102.91% |
32.87% |
|
Sunday |
April 11, 2021 |
187,047,131 |
119,242,902 |
72,630,892 |
3,579,422 |
102.58% |
28.34% |
|
Sunday |
April 4, 2021 |
165,053,746 |
106,214,924 |
61,416,536 |
3,365,324 |
101.56% |
23.96% |
|
Sunday |
March 28, 2021 |
143,462,691 |
93,631,163 |
51,593,564 |
3,281,956 |
101.23% |
20.13% |
|
Sunday |
March 21, 2021 |
124,481,412 |
81,415,769 |
44,141,228 |
3,039,915 |
100.86% |
17.22% |
|
Sunday |
March 14, 2021 |
107,060,274 |
69,784,210 |
37,459,269 |
1,356,773 |
100.17% |
14.61% |
|
Sunday |
March 7, 2021 |
90,351,750 |
58,873,710 |
30,686,881 |
2,439,427 |
99.12% |
11.97% |
|
Sunday |
February 28, 2021 |
75,236,003 |
49,772,180 |
24,779,920 |
2,429,823 |
99.09% |
9.67% |
|
Sunday |
February 21, 2021 |
63,090,634 |
43,628,092 |
18,865,319 |
1,801,134 |
99.05% |
7.36% |
|
Sunday |
Feb 7, 2021 |
41,210,937 |
31,579,100 |
9,147,185 |
2,172,973 |
98.82% |
3.57% |
|
Sunday |
January 31, 2021 |
31,123,299 |
25,201,143 |
5,657,142 |
1,545,397 |
99.15% |
2.21% |
|
Sunday |
Jan 24, 2021 |
21,848,655 |
18,502,131 |
3,216,836 |
1,310,665 |
99.41% |
1.26% |
Wow, Wow, Wow -- A New Major Oil Company This Next Week? OxyContin? -- Source -- May 23, 2021
Another rumor: Pioneer about to buy Ovintiv.
I "never" post "rumors" and "what-ifs" but these are too good to not be posted.
If I had a nickel for every rumor I've heard in the oil patch, I could give up this hobby horse (the blog) and retire in Costa Rica. Not that I would ever want to do that.
Record Low Number Of Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- May 23, 2021
It appears "everyone" took a vacation during the last full week of November, 2020.
Monday, May 31, 2021: 38 for the month, 59 for the quarter, 140 for the year:
Sunday, May 30, 2021: 38 for the month, 59 for the quarter, 140 for the year:
None.
Saturday, May 29, 2021: 38 for the month, 59 for the quarter, 140 for the year:
36994, conf, MRO, Hull 41-28TFH,
Friday, May 28, 2021: 37 for the month, 58 for the quarter, 139 for the year:
None.
Thursday, May 27, 2021: 37 for the month, 58 for the quarter, 139 for the year:
None.
Wednesday, May 26, 2021: 37 for the month, 58 for the quarter, 139 for the year:
None.
Tuesday, May 25, 2021: 37 for the month, 58 for the quarter, 139 for the year:
None.
Monday, May 24, 2021: 37 for the month, 58 for the quarter, 139 for the year:
None.
Sunday, May 23, 2021: 37 for the month, 58 for the quarter, 139 for the year:
37780, conf, CLR, Brandvik 12-25H,
37779, conf, CLR, State Weydahl 12-36H,
Anticipating A Halo Effect Southwest Of Williston -- May 23, 2021
A reader alerted me to this mega-pad on the southwest side of Williston. I will come back to it later.
The wells:
- 21933, 636, CLR, Plano 1-28H, Todd (city of Williston), t3/12; cum 285K 3/21;
- 38218, conf, CLR, Plano FIU 5-28H, Baker (south of Williston);
- 38219, conf, CLR, Plano FIU 4-28H, Baker (south of Williston);
- 38220, conf, CLR, Plano FIU 3-28H, Baker (south of Williston);
- 38221, conf, CLR, Plano FIU 2-28HSL, Baker (south of Williston);
- 38222, conf, CLR, Plano FIU 6-28H, Baker (south of Williston);
- 38223, conf, CLR, Plano FIU 7-28H, Baker (south of Williston);
- 38224, conf, CLR, Plano FIU 8-28HSL, Baker (south of Williston);
The Two-Letter Difference: Conundrum And Corundum -- May 23, 2021
Some years ago I spent a lot of time trying to sort out gemstones.
From mineral.net and webexhibits:
Corundrum:
- best known for two of its gem varieties: rubies and sapphires
- same minerals; different "impurities" in trace amounts
- ruby: red
- sapphire: not red; most think of sapphire as blue (most popular and most values sapphire, but sapphires come in a multitude of colors
- hardness: for all practical purposes, second hardest mineral after diamond
- unaffected by acid and most environments
- most common forms, due to hardness, favored as abrasives:
- translucent brown corundrum
- emery
- easily synthesized
- chemical formula: Al2O3 (oxidized aluminum); analogous to oxidized iron (rust)
- From other sites:
- Star of India: 563-carat, a blue sapphire
- impurities:
- ruby: chromium
- blue sapphire: titanium and iron
- science:
- in rubies, the color can be explained by crystal field theory, but in sapphires, a slightly different process, known as charge transfer, produces the color (one wonder if there is any analogy to chlorophyll)
- found everywhere in the world
- Australia: dominant producer of sapphires, but of lesser quality due to their very dark color
- SE Asia: fine quality sapphires
- Sri Lanka: sought-after cornflower blue sapphires
- While at least 1% chromium must be present in corundum before the deep red ruby color is seen, sapphire blue is apparent with the presence of only 0.01% of titanium and iron.
I guess we'll stop there.
Ford's Lightning -- Case Study -- Why EVs Have A Long Way To Go -- May 23, 2021
- Range.
- Cost.
- Size.
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The Apple Car
Let's see: how many decades has Apple been working on "the Apple car"?
Headline: Apple and the end of the car as we know it.
Sub-headline: As cars become computers on wheels, Apple is joining other tech companies in eyeing the $5 trillion auto market.
With the M1, Apple, I think, has a huge head-start.
From the linked WSJ article:
Now that the car is evolving into essentially a smartphone on wheels, it’s no wonder Apple is kicking the tires.
First, there is the transition from internal combustion engines to electric motors, which have far fewer mechanical parts. Now, enabled by that change, a second shift is under way—one that’s a prerequisite for a self-driving future.
For a century, the automobile was a system of interoperating mechanics: engine, transmission, drive shaft, brakes, etc. As those mechanics evolved, electronic sensors and processors were brought in to assist them, but the concepts changed little. The result was cars with dozens or hundreds of specialized microchips that didn’t talk to each other. Now that auto makers are moving to electric motors, elaborate entertainment systems and adaptive cruise control, cars need central computers to control all these things—why not use them to control everything?
At the hardware level, this might just mean fewer chips handling more of a car’s functions. Yet it has profound implications for what future cars will be capable of, how car makers will make money, and who will survive—and thrive—in what could soon be a global automotive industry made unrecognizable to us today.
More:
Basically, everyone is shifting their emphasis to software—and hiring like crazy to do it. In the past year, almost every major automotive company has advertised that it would like to hire many more software developers. Volkswagen, for example, announced in March 2019 that it would add 2,000 to its technical development team; the company already employs thousands of software engineers.
“Software is eating the world, and cars are next on the menu,” says Jim Adler, managing director of Toyota AI Ventures, a venture-capital fund owned by the car maker.
*********************************
Chips
Re-posting.
Chips: huge story, on so many levels -- TSMC -- largest chip maker in the world -- set to "double down" and vastly increase US semiconductor chip investment in Arizona. Link here.
The company had already said it was going to invest $10 billion to $12 billion in Arizona. Now, the company is mulling a more advanced 3 nanometer plant that could cost between $23 billion and $25 billion, sources said. The changes would come over the next 10 to 15 years, as the company builds out its Phoenix campus, the report notes.
The move would put TSMC in direct competition with Intel and Samsung for subsidies from the U.S. government. President Joe Biden has proposed $50 billion in funding for domestic chip manufacturing - a proposal the Senate could act on as soon as this week. Intel has also committed to two new fabs in Arizona and Samsung is planning a $17 billion factory in Austin, Texas.
*********************************
As If Apple Needed More Advertising
From The WSJ: M1 iMac 24-inch review: Apple built a cool desktop computer for the iPhone era.
When I was growing up, my parents bought a new television set, maybe, every decade.
I now use my 27-inch iMac as a television set. I bought it two years ago or thereabouts.
It already feels old.
I will probably replace my "television" iMacs every three years.
Becky Quick has Warren Buffett and CNBC.
Joanna Stern has Apple and The WSJ.
From the linked article:
Like its similarly priced two-decade-old ancestor, Apple’s 2021 iMac is also available in bright colors and with matching keyboard and mouse. The new version is far more evolved—a third of the weight, 24 times the pixels and at least 50 times the storage space—but the mission feels the same: Entice you to go out of your way to use a thing called a desktop computer.
The new iMac, which starts at $1,299 and arrives this Friday, does so by being more iPhone or iPad than any old-school Macintosh. It has a beautiful Retina display and a fingerprint sensor in its keyboard. In some lighting, the webcam is better than the front-facing iPad and iPhone selfie cameras. With a new Apple M1 chip inside, the iMac wakes in a split second—and even runs a handful of iOS apps.
Notes From All Over -- The 6:00 A.M. Portland, OR, Edition -- May 23, 2021
Coal: another article I would have ignored had it not been in The WSJ. Bitcoin miners are giving new life to old fossil-fuel power plants. Link here. Without question, the number one energy that is not being reported enough in the mainstream media is the energy cryptocurrency miners require. For investors this is great news.
Across America, older fossil-fuel power plants are shutting down in favor of renewable energy. But some are getting a new lease on life—to mine bitcoin. In upstate New York, an idled coal plant has been restarted, fueled by natural gas, to mine cryptocurrency. A once-struggling Montana coal plant is now scaling up to do the same.
The drive for power has its roots in bitcoin’s intractable mathematics: To operate securely, the cryptocurrency’s network relies on computers solving puzzles; in return the solvers get fresh bitcoin. The higher the bitcoin price, the more of these miners compete to solve the puzzles—a process that chews up electricity. The more competition, the harder the puzzles get and the more electricity is used.
A University of Cambridge index pegs the annual power consumption of bitcoin mining at around 130 terawatt-hours, more than three times higher than at the beginning of 2019. That would be more than the power consumption of Argentina.
The coal-fired Hardin Generating Station in Montana had been struggling for years. Late last year, a Nasdaq-listed miner called Marathon Digital Holdings Inc. MARA partnered with Hardin’s owner to transform the power plant into a hub for mining bitcoin.
“It was an idle asset,” Fred Thiel, Marathon Digital’s chief executive, said in an interview. “We were able to get access to a large amount of power at a very attractive price.”
The project is in the process of scaling up, with more than 100 megawatts of power capacity planned. Marathon Digital, whose investors include BlackRock Inc. and the hedge fund Renaissance Technologies LLC, said that by tapping the Montana coal plant, its break-even costs to produce a bitcoin will fall to $4,600, 38% less than previously.
Much, much more at the link. Again, this is a most-under-reported story and a story energy investors should be following closely.
The bigger story line: the renewable energy story will never keep up. We're gonna need a lot more natural gas.
From social media: "I will bet you my net worth versus your net worth that we will see $200-oil before we see $400,000 Bitcoin. Link here.
Coal, China: China's coal output rises 11.1% in the first four months. Link here.
Oil, China: China's implied oil demand rose to 14.87 million bpd and continues to grow steadily.
That increase represents an increase of almost 2 million bopd year/year. At this rate, China will overtake the US before Biden leaves office. The US is currently using 17 to 18 million bopd and is the world's largest crude consumer in the universe. Warning: the numbers were based on 2021 / 2020 -- and we all know that 2020 was a "dead" year. With that factoid, some suggest these recent numbers should not be extrapolated.
Notes From All Over -- The 4:00 A.M. Portland, OR, Edition -- May 23, 2021
Chips: huge story, on so many levels -- TSMC -- largest chip maker in the world -- set to "double down" and vastly increase US semiconductor chip investment in Arizona. Link here.
The company had already said it was going to invest $10 billion to $12 billion in Arizona. Now, the company is mulling a more advanced 3 nanometer plant that could cost between $23 billion and $25 billion, sources said. The changes would come over the next 10 to 15 years, as the company builds out its Phoenix campus, the report notes.
The move would put TSMC in direct competition with Intel and Samsung for subsidies from the U.S. government. President Joe Biden has proposed $50 billion in funding for domestic chip manufacturing - a proposal the Senate could act on as soon as this week. Intel has also committed to two new fabs in Arizona and Samsung is planning a $17 billion factory in Austin, Texas.
Batteries: I would have ignored this story, and certainly not posted it except it comes from The WSJ. Natural gas, America's #1 power source, has a new challenger: batteries. Link here. Incredibly awful article from The WSJ. If you are able to access it be sure to read the comments.
Rebuttal: Wattsupwitththat.com blows a hole in the afore-linked WSJ article on batteries: link here. And that article has no paywall.
Stacker: new site to follow?
CDC won't count "trivial" breakthrough Covid cases;
doesn't want to see a surge under Biden's watch. I thought I had posted
that story already; apparently not. A reader sent me the story. My
reply:
Unfortunately the story has no legs.However, the good news is that with no reporting "break-through" cases, the states won't go back to shutting down.Although the CDC was caught red-handed, it's actually a good decision. We don't need to start seeing cases surge again.
Flattened the curve: Saudi Arabia lifts quarantine requirement for foreign visitors.
The Natural Gas Conundrum In The Bakken -- May 23, 2021
About a week ago I posted a note on the problem with ethane in the Bakken.
A reader replied with an excellent four-part note. But that note really "bugs" me in a positive way. It was such a great note that I hate to see it "lost" in the comment section only.
So, here is the four-part note brought up as a stand-along post (hopefully I have them in the same order). No editing but if there are any typographical errors, attribute them to me, not the reader.
I'll come back later and highlight some of this.
First part of that four-part comment:
It pains me when I see even oil execs not knowing something so basic as what NGLs are. And the popular press and peak oil nitwits are even worse. Talk about stuff and don't understand it. If you follow this sector for years, you need to learn/understand it.
1. First important characteristic of oil and gas is that it is a natural product. This is very different than chemistry where you think of a single molecule. Here we have a soup of different molecules. Thousands of different ones. And different deposits have different mixtures. And many of the fuels also are mixtures still (e.g. gasoline). VERY different than an element or a molecule, something you have pure and in a little Sigma Aldrich bottle to do reactions with. These are MIXTURES.
2. Creating this mixture tendency are two phenomenon: first the incredible complexity of organic compounds. Carbon has four bonds and forms stable molecules with many carbons. You can have different length chains, branches, rings, double/triple bonds, etc. And can have heteroatoms (non-C or non-H, e.g. S).
Secondly, organic molecules are (in general) very soluble in each other. You know oil and water? They don't mix. But different oils DO mix. And even natural gas (methane, one carbon) dissolves to a decent amount in even very heavy oils like tar sand.
Of course, the exact shape (branches and the like) matters. But for very simple assessment, you can think of the number of carbons as determining the properties of the molecules. C-1 (one carbon) is the simplest form and is "pure" natural gas. It has a very low boiling point (requires incredibly cold temps to liquefy into LNG, e.g.) Gasoline is around C-8. It's actually a mixture and branching is important, but for very gross oversimplification, think of it as octane. It has a relatively low boiling point (thus the vapors you can see). Diesel is less volatile (has a higher boiling point). Think of it as C-16. It's actually a mixture and straight(er) chains are important, but think of it as C-16. Heavy fuel oil is even more carbons and higher boiling.
[The different fuels are made by distilling to separate the mixtures in crude oil, thus "distillation towers". It's actually more complex than that with some cleanup, and molecule fiddling (cracking and the like). But for gross simplicity, think of basically taking the oil and distilling it into different "cuts" of hydrocarbon length.
Second part of that four-part comment.
3. Oil and gas are produced together (in most cases) along with water. An oil well (or a wet gas well) is really an oil/gas/water well. At the well-head, there is a "three phase separator" that gives vapor (top), oil (middle) and water (bottom). This is basically just done by mechanical separation, like in your salad dressing bottle. Can Google for Youtube videos of the mechanism--they are cool looking with some mechanical tricks to allow the separation at decent flow rates. But for simplicity, can think of it as a wide spot in the pipe allowing settling separation.
A gas well typically has a little bit of associated oil. And visa versa. And can even be sort of same amounts of each. In a few cases ("dry gas"), you may have insignificant oil. And even rarer, you may have "dead oil" that has no appreciable gas. But usually you are getting BOTH together. (Along with some useless water.)
From, the 3-phase sep, you get three streams, the first twof which are commercial:a. The vapor ("wet gas") is mostly C-1, but has appreciable amounts of C-2 to C4, and a little bit of C-5+.
b. The liquid oil is called "crude" or "lease condensate". There is no fundamental chemical difference (like with elements) between crude and lease condensate. The are the same junk, different flavors. In many states (ND, for instance), there is no tax or regulatory difference. And the Feds treat them the same also. A few states (OK, TX) differentiate crude (from mostly-oil wells) and lease condensate (from mostly-gas wells) for tax purposes. And the lease condensate tends to be lower density (higher API gravity). But it is purely a matter of degree. No fundamental difference. The peak oil morons get this messed up all the time.
c. The water is just salt water from the deep earth. Very high salinity and can contain some radioactivity or the like. Honest, it's not that awful. I think deep ocean disposal would hurt nothing because of the dilution. But you ain't allowed to put it in streams or the ocean any more. Have to clean it up or inject it back into the deep earth. Usually the latter.
Third part of that four-part comment:
4. The numbers you see reported for oil and gas production (on the EIA 914 or the NDIC) are C&C (crude and lease condensate) and well-head gas. I.e. they are the amounts produced FROM the 3 phase separators at well pads.
After the well-pad, the C&C goes to refineries where it is (basically) separated into different boiling fractions: light ends (even including a little more natural gas, along with ethane, propane), naphtha, gasoline, diesel, kerosene, heavy fuel oil, and even asphalt. You can think of this as a much more complex, expensive, "second separation" of the liquid petroleum stream from the three-phase sep. High temps are used to drive the separation.
The natural gas from the 3-phase separators also gets a "second squeeze" in centralized, expensive plants, away from the well head. In this case, cold temps are used to separate components. The C-1 (methane) is natural gas. All the other components of the "wet" gas stream are called NGLs (natural gas liquids). Paradoxically most of them are NOT liquid at room temp. But they are still liquid at higher temps than methane.
Ethane, C-2, is separated and used for petrochem (mostly). But in some cases, it is fed back into the natural gas stream when the heat limits allow, if price of petrochem is not good enough. C-3, propane, also has petrochem uses, but is mostly for space heating where natural gas is not available (think of it as transportable natural gas, can use much flimsier cylinders because of it's higher boiling point.
C-4, butane is right at the boundary of boiling. On a cold winter day, it is all liquid. But at room temp, it is a vapor. Can also be stored in flimsier tanks. Your plastic Bic lighter has butane in it...the slight pressure keeps it liquid, but as it comes out it evaporates). Because of the temperature, butane is seasonal. In the winter, it (mostly) gets mixed into gasoline. In the summer, it can't be mixed into gasoline. Also has some petrochem uses, but in many cases, people just store it in summer and sell it in winter.
There are two isomers of butane. The straight chain is used as above. The branched butane is actually sold to refineries as a starting material for making higher octane branched compounds. The branched isomer sells for more, so there is enough incentive to separate the two isomers and sell them separately.
The higher carbon molecules in the gas stream are called "pentanes plus". Since, well, they are C-5 mostly and a small amount of C-6, etc. These molecules ARE LIQUID at room temp. In the wet gas stream, they are a vapor. But the gas processing plant separates them out and collects them as a liquid phase.
C-5+ is sort of oil like. Is (confusingly) called "plant condensate" or "drip gas". But we are talking MUCH higher API gravity (say 90 or so) than wellhead lease condensates (that are in the high 40s-50s or so). However, plant condensates ARE real liquid hydrocarbons--the only NGLs that are room temp liquids.
There is no economic incentive to separate the (three) different isomers of C-5 or the C-6 (and its isomers). Basically pentanes plus is sold as a mixture. The primary application is to just get thrown into an oil refinery (mixed with heavier crude). But it can also be used for gasoline mixing, for diluting tar sands, petrochem, etc.
Fourth part of that four-part note:
In general, the gas stream components are more valuable as they get longer. But this depends on the exact supply/demand, transport availability and processing costs. But in general: C-1 is cheapest; C-2 is pricier; C-3 next pricier; normal butane even better; isobutane better than that; and pentanes plus best (close to WTI, maybe a ten buck haircut).
Again, it pains me that people (peak oilers, grrr) follow this stuff and opine on it for years. And don't even learn the first thing about what they are talking about. Not asking for detailed chem engineering and distillation curves. But just basic f... concepts. RBN has explained this several times. And there are many other sources a Google search away. But I still see people who don't know the basic lay of the land.
The New Silicon Valleys: Arizona And Texas -- May 23, 2021
One of the blog posts I like best had to do with semiconductor chips.
That was perhaps the best update on chips on any blog that requires no subscription and no password. LOL.
Read that post first, and then read the following:
TSMC -- largest chip maker in the world -- set to "double down" and vastly increase US semiconductor chip investment in Arizona. Link here.
The company had already said it was going to invest $10 billion to $12 billion in Arizona. Now, the company is mulling a more advanced 3 nanometer plant that could cost between $23 billion and $25 billion, sources said. The changes would come over the next 10 to 15 years, as the company builds out its Phoenix campus, the report notes.
The move would put TSMC in direct competition with Intel and Samsung for subsidies from the U.S. government. President Joe Biden has proposed $50 billion in funding for domestic chip manufacturing - a proposal the Senate could act on as soon as this week. Intel has also committed to two new fabs in Arizona and Samsung is planning a $17 billion factory in Austin, Texas.
Note:
- the chip factories are not being built where the end-users are based (California);
- the chip factories are being built in Texas and Arizona
- one thing Texas and Arizona have in common: USAA with mirror operations
- Austin, TX: the new Silicon Valley
- UT-Austin