Pages

▼

Monday, March 1, 2021

US Saudi Oil Imports Slow To A Trickle -- March 1, 2021

Bloomberg still says US not energy independent. Whatever. Link here. 


at No comments:

What A Great Country -- California Projects A Huge Surplus -- March 1, 2021

And that surplus will grow when Washington, DC, sends infrastructure money for the "bullet train" to Sacramento.


********************************
Four Sophia Stories

First story:
Sophia is quite the conversationalist when we drive from home to Tutor Time.

Apparently Sophia - Robert - Isabella are a threesome.

Isabella is a trouble-maker. She conspires with Robert to "spy" on Sophia.

Today, Sophia was so excited to go to Tutor Time because Isabella was not there Friday and it's possible Isabella won't be there today, Monday.

Sophia and Robert had a great time last Friday without Isabella.

Sophia says she and Robert have a "relationship" - her word, not mine. She says Robert hopes that Isabella would not be here on Monday. But, Robert said to Sophia on Friday, that if Isabella is here today (Monday), he says he will tell Isabella that he wants to have time alone with Sophia without Isabella.

Can't wait to hear how today goes.
Second story:
Sophia and I try to arrive just before the bus arrives that has all the school kids in it. If we beat the bus, Sophia can be first in line and that's important for her, to be first in line.

Today, we arrived a minute too late, and Sophia was last in line.

While standing in line, Robert went over to a warning cone on the ground and pointed out a spider. Of course, everyone in line had to run over to see the spider.

Not Sophia. She ran to the head of the line. LOL. When everyone quit screaming over the spider, they all got back in line behind Sophia.
Third story:
Sophia says she does not want me to leave ever. I said I would stay until she gets her driver's license. Sophia than confirmed that would be when she was sixteen years old. I said, "yes." She said that would work.
Fourth story:
I mentioned how nice it was today. No one at home so I didn't have to rush all over picking up Olivia, getting her to soccer, getting Sophia to Tutor Time, etc.  As I was talking out loud on how great it was, Sophia said matter of factly: "It all ends tonight when Olivia returns home tonight." LOL. [Olivia was in North Caroline for the weekend participating in a soccer tournament, along with her dad.]
at 2 comments:

Apple's Main Supplier Ready To Begin Volume Production Of 3NM Chips -- March 1, 2021

Re-posting, this is huge.

Apple, Inc. wow, wow, wow ..... huge ... TSMC on track to begin volume production of 3nm chips in 2022. From MacRumors -- TSMC, Apple's main chip supplier, is on track to begin risk production of a 3-nanometer fabrication process in the second half of this year, when the foundry will be capable of processing 30,000 wafers built using the more advanced technology.

This is a big, big deal. See this link. 

at No comments:

Headlines From Today -- March 1, 2021

Inflation, from The WSJ:

Apple, Inc: from Market Watch; also from MacRumors:

Apple, Inc.: third largest seller of tablets in India in 2020, from MacRumors.

Apple, Inc. wow, wow, wow ..... huge ... TSMC on track to begin volume production of 3nm chips in 2022. From MacRumors -- TSMC, Apple's main chip supplier, is on track to begin risk production of a 3-nanometer fabrication process in the second half of this year, when the foundry will be capable of processing 30,000 wafers built using the more advanced technology.

This is a big, big deal. See this link. 

at No comments:

No New Permits -- Active Rigs Remain Unchanged At 15 -- March 1, 2021

By the way: a shout-out to the Bakken roughnecks during the recent unfavorable event in February. We've heard how much oil production dropped in the Permian; it will be interesting to see how the Bakken did. We will know in a couple of weeks. And, oh by the way, it helps put the DAPL in perspective.

Active rigs:

$60.31
3/1/202103/01/202003/01/201903/01/201803/01/2017
Active Rigs1552675941

No new permits. Nothing to report.
at No comments:

NOG: 4Q20 And Full-Year Earnings -- To Be Released March 12, 2021

Link here. 

Before market open, March 12, 2021.

4Q20:

  • consensus EPS forecast: 67 cents/share
  • high EPS forecast; 77 cents/share
  • low EPS forecast: 53 cents/share
at No comments:

Why The Texas February Freeze Won't Change Texas -- The Economist -- March 1, 2021

From The Economist, February 27, 2021, link here. 

“TEXAS IS A mirror in which Americans see themselves reflected, not life-sized but…bigger than life,” wrote John Bainbridge in “The Super-Americans”, a book published in 1961 about the Lone Star state. Recently, the picture of Texas has been one of super-size suffering. 
A snowstorm and freezing temperatures caused power-equipment failures, leading to rolling blackouts. Around 4.5 million households had to go without power and half of all Texans lost access to safe drinking water. 
Dozens have died and hundreds were poisoned by carbon monoxide. Survivors have had to contend with burst pipes in their homes, flooding and eye-watering electricity bills. 
With most of the state shut down for a week, the disaster will probably become the costliest in Texas’s history, eclipsing the toll of even the worst hurricanes. 

There are two issues here:

  • the business or regulatory model; and,
  • the infrastructure issues.

If an analysis does not address these issues separately, it's a poor analysis.  

In addition, like most superficial analyses, the Economist author(s) only provided the estimated numerator. No attempt was made by The Economist to provide a denominator of any sort. Without the denominator, any analysis is worthless. 

  • estimated numerator: yes
  • denominator of any sort: no

The Texas February Freeze is tracked here.

Later:

This is quite interesting.

First, the business model.

The business model has resulted in lowest electricity rates in the US. With that record, why would one want to change the business model. The business model had nothing to do with a) the record freeze; or, b) the infrastructure.

Second, if this was a once-in-a-hundred years event why would one want to tweak the infrastructure? Remember: the bigger risk is global warming, not another deep freeze. One can't have it both ways.

at No comments:

Texas February Freeze, 2021

Everyone will have their own worldview, or what Joseph Campbell called "myths,"  on what happened and why it happened.

I don't plan on posting a lot on the Texas February Freeze, but to keep some organization, stand-alone posts will be linked here. 


 

at 2 comments:

Texas Power Firm Hit With $2.1 Billion Bill Files For Bankruptcy -- March 1, 2021

Texas Freeze: largest power generation and transmission coop in Texas filed for bankruptcy. Link here.

  • Brazos Electric Power Cooperatirve
  • estimated $2.1 billion in charges over seven days
  • last year, 2020, it cost cooperative members less than $775 million for power for the entire year
  • the ooperative on Feb. 25 told state grid operator the Electric Reliability Council of Texas that it wouldn’t pay the $2.1 billion sum, and Karnei resigned from Ercot’s board of directors, court papers show
  • Aside from its power bills, the cooperative has more than $2 billion of debt outstanding, spread across $1.56 billion of secured notes and about $480 million under a credit line administered by Bank of America Corp., court papers show. Brazos had A+ credit grade from Fitch Ratings and an A from S&P Global Ratings prior to the bankruptcy.
  • Brazos, a member-owned power provider serves customers across 68 Texas counties, stretching from just north of Houston to near the Texas panhandle, court papers show.
  • The bankruptcy is likely to be one of many after four million homes and businesses went without heat, light and water during the deep winter freeze last month, causing as much as $129 billion in economic losses. The state’s broader market set a record for the most expensive week of power in U.S. history.

SRE: up $2.42. Up over 2% in early morning trading. Trading well below its high, but recovering nicely. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

First group:

  • 10-Year Treasury: link here. Down slightly, at 1.419%.
  • DXY: link here. Up slightly, at $91.05.
  • Silver: link  here. Up slightly, at $27.025.
  • CBOE volatility index: link here. Huge plunge, down over 15%; now at 23.72.

Second group:

  • 30-Year Treasury: link here. History. Up slightly, but essentially flat, at 2.191%.
at 2 comments:

How Closing DAPL Would Impact Bakken Crude Oil -- RBN Energy -- March 1, 2021

RBN Energy: how closing DAPL would impact Bakken crude oil producers. Archived.

When it finally came online in mid-2017, the Dakota Access Pipeline was a lifesaver for Bakken crude oil producers. For years, they had suffered from takeaway-capacity shortfalls that forced many shippers to rely on higher-cost crude-by-rail, sapping producer profits in the process. Then came DAPL, which provides straight-shot pipeline access to a key Midwest oil hub, and its sister pipe — the Energy Transfer Crude Oil Pipeline (ETCOP) — which takes crude from there to the Gulf Coast. Problem solved, right? Not exactly. 
Now, there’s at least an outside chance that a shutdown order is issued as soon as early April in connection with the ongoing federal district court process, with the timeline for a physical closure of the pipe still to be determined. A shutdown may last for only a few months but could potentially last much longer. Where does this uncertainty leave Bakken producers, many of whom have been hoping to benefit from the recent run-up in crude oil prices by ramping up their output this spring? Today, we discuss recent upstream and midstream developments in the U.S.’s second-largest shale/tight-oil play.

at No comments:

BRK -- Portfolio -- Update -- December 31, 2020

Scorecard.


at No comments:

Seven New Carson Peak Wells -- Soon To Report? -- March 1, 2021

The wells:

  • 37113,
  • 37714,
  • 37793,
  • 37715, drl/NC, CLR, Carson Peak 11-35H2, Oakdale, no production data, sits on a 7-well pad;
  • 37716,
  • 37794,
  • 37795,

I have no idea why they are aligned this way, sited north to south even though they will all be running north-south.

The Carson Peak well immediately to the west of these wells (note the chronologic number; we discussed this a long, long time ago). Drilled back in 2008, this well has paid for itself years ago. It is still producing 3,000 bbls of oil month-after-month; at $40/bbl = $120,000 / month:

  • 17079, 559, CLR, Carson Peak 44-2H, Oakdale, t6/08; cum 361K 12/20; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-202020173516842331931871852
BAKKEN11-20203032793613566375911272229
BAKKEN10-20201111147232281215362782
BAKKEN9-202016139519181551536665743
BAKKEN8-2020313177308859430432440184
BAKKEN7-2020303646332064334732573495
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-2020313096311462835242763350
BAKKEN4-2020282992320563934032088942
BAKKEN3-2020313162313872235602266875
BAKKEN2-2020292924299965833362324622
BAKKEN1-2020313230309290336222422781
BAKKEN12-20193131863310106535432352772

Look at the initial production back in 2008. It looked like it was going to be a lousy well. Probably needs to be re-fracked with "modern" completion strategies. I would argue this well never showed the typical Bakken decline:

BAKKEN12-20083163206743280292629260
BAKKEN11-20082859515945269459945990
BAKKEN10-20083163176189292308130810
BAKKEN9-20083077327713324605560550
BAKKEN8-2008311115811090678868986890
BAKKEN7-200831908889682543403400
BAKKEN6-20083012365120933621927809278
at No comments:

Crosby Chase And Patricia Kelly -- WPX Wells In Spotted Horn -- March 1, 2021

Two five-well pads in this section. Except for one well, all are confidential or DUCs. 

To the south:

  • 37308,
  • 37307,
  • 37306,
  • 37305, drl/NC, WPX, Crosby Chase 2-1HZ, Spotted Horn, no production data,
  • 37304, drl/NC, WPX, Crosby Chase 2-1HIL,Spotted Horn, no production data,  

 

To the north:

  • 37324,
  • 37232,
  • 37231,
  • 37230,
  • 23639, IA/1,482, WPX, Patricia Kelly 2-1HB, Spotted Horn, t3/13; cum 388K 7/20; off line while neighboring wells are fracked; 

"Everybody" talks about the steep decline rate in the Bakken. What I never hear anyone talk about is the long legacy tail. Look at the production for this well for the past five years. If this well is not abandoned when the new wells come in this well will be re-worked, re-fracked, and positively impacted by neighboring fracks. 

Three thousand bbls month-after-month. At $40/bbl = $120,000 bbls/month and this well paid for itself a long, long time ago. 

23639:

BAKKEN7-20202822752379887403923031407
BAKKEN6-202030262026011070465124851419
BAKKEN5-20203125582524110532162308160
BAKKEN4-20203026902758114733802150465
BAKKEN3-20203130493053151038332544469
BAKKEN2-20202930823423171338752487599
BAKKEN1-20203024872434158231261362247
BAKKEN12-20193123442615209629452901922
BAKKEN11-20191913406811154168501250
BAKKEN10-20191700908
BAKKEN9-20192315701601872227217330
BAKKEN8-201931228722851030320424650
BAKKEN7-20193123042424825302722860
BAKKEN6-2019302284221586628711905243
BAKKEN5-20193122502223903282810491044
BAKKEN4-20193023022346108128959551215
BAKKEN3-2019312475243895531107901576
BAKKEN2-20192822622204835404033570
BAKKEN1-201931255625461023472939610
BAKKEN12-201831266026451040509443350
BAKKEN11-2018302710280410193408255386
BAKKEN10-20183127692731108334812574120
BAKKEN9-201830295729381168399231930
BAKKEN8-201831328532841270623453880
BAKKEN7-201831354235931276714562730
BAKKEN6-201830368636051237611652430
BAKKEN5-20183136213613112145533468204
BAKKEN4-20183032173293113840432530691
BAKKEN3-201831317131211424398621491003
BAKKEN2-20186570575151716180447
BAKKEN1-2018882683028611429720
BAKKEN12-201731328732831092477539280
BAKKEN11-201730301829919833795292975
BAKKEN10-20173131253207979400331740
BAKKEN9-2017303123308292939252740372
BAKKEN8-20173132213274105440503040171
BAKKEN7-20173131923183100540132686509
BAKKEN6-2017303336336394941922515841
BAKKEN5-20173135333584106944412674894
BAKKEN4-20173034293297115443102577888
BAKKEN3-201731332133051149417521351204
BAKKEN2-2017192052202782125809321185
BAKKEN1-20177161170212020123
BAKKEN12-201631157017254811973444872
BAKKEN11-2016302375224872829861587692
BAKKEN10-2016312937293491736932042865
BAKKEN9-2016202094208763426321526574
BAKKEN8-20163131643135119539772499653
BAKKEN7-201615123112214751547937292
BAKKEN6-201630340934971127539144130
BAKKEN5-201631369236271207505340250
BAKKEN4-201630380637751060547443940
BAKKEN3-201631414641791219575546340
BAKKEN2-20162942474259121253404003232
BAKKEN1-20163144594454144956184233211
BAKKEN12-20152227212764934348827000
BAKKEN11-201530460045451291612149560
BAKKEN10-201531464346931331579747590
BAKKEN9-201530450244791336517541710
BAKKEN8-20153145754699615524642160
BAKKEN7-2015142142213484918361142186
BAKKEN6-20151418601817592272120510
BAKKEN5-20153146755041137340061661839
BAKKEN4-201530480046301203411414861141
BAKKEN3-20153151815086147944392662613
BAKKEN2-2015284387468212373760641810
BAKKEN1-201531538448511312461302484
BAKKEN12-20143155195766146447314352118
BAKKEN11-20143054505391144946703932300
BAKKEN10-20143159396101155750911683996
BAKKEN9-20143054135388183946393260527
BAKKEN8-201431423339531109351732880
BAKKEN7-201431543354951422466346630
BAKKEN6-201430560757571395219919180
BAKKEN5-201431544653891460360133100
BAKKEN4-201430522053531334245322650
BAKKEN3-201431782278701868451141943
BAKKEN2-2014285853581713211954160315
BAKKEN1-201431650864131648589555541

at No comments:

Ten Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- March 1, 2021

Texas Freeze: largest power generation and transmission coop in Texas filed for bankruptcy. Link here.

  • Brazos Electric Power Cooperatirve
  • estimated $2.1 billion in charges over seven days
  • last year, 2020, it cost cooperative members less than $775 million for power for the entire year
  • the ooperative on Feb. 25 told state grid operator the Electric Reliability Council of Texas that it wouldn’t pay the $2.1 billion sum, and Karnei resigned from Ercot’s board of directors, court papers show
  • see more here.

Berkshire Hathaway: scorecard. See also.

Inflation: Gold is plummeting. That's not supposed to happen. 

Big Oil expects Big Profits: link here. 

Later, market open: Dow up almost 700 points.

*********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$62.31
3/1/202103/01/202003/01/201903/01/201803/01/2017
Active Rigs1552675941

Ten wells coming off confidential list:

Monday, March 1, 2021: 3 for the month, 59 for the quarter, 59 for the year.

  • 37639, drl/drl, BR, Cherry Ice Cream 1V TFH, Haystack Butte, no production data,
  • 37305, drl/NC, WPX, Crosby Chase 2-1HZ, Spotted Horn, no production data, see this post;
  • 35952, A/F, Whiting, Renbarger Federal 34-33-2TFH, Banks, first production, 9/20; t--; cum 58K 12/20;

Sunday, February 28, 2021: 23 for the month, 56 for the quarter, 56 for the year.

  • 37715, drl/NC, CLR, Carson Peak 11-35H2, Oakdale, no production data, sits on a 7-well pad; see this post;
  • 37638, drl/drl, BR, Cherry Daquiri 1W MBH, Haystack Butte, no production data,
  • 37637, drl/drl, BR, Cherry Margarita 1X TFH, Haystack Butte, no production data,
  • 37636, drl/drl, BR, Cherry Claire 1Y MBH, Haystack Butte, no production data,
  • 37635, drl/drl, BR, Cherry Tree 1Z TFH, Haystack Butte, no production data,
  • 37304, drl/NC, WPX, Crosby Chase 2-1HIL,Spotted Horn, no production data, see this post;
  • 37097, A/F, Hess, BW-Spring Creek-149-99-1201H-6, Cherry Creek, first production, 9/20; t--; cum 84K 12/20; see this four-well pad at this link;

RBN Energy: how closing DAPL would impact Bakken crude oil producers. See also.

at No comments:

Four Very Nice Hess Spring Creek Wells In Cherry Creek Now Being Reported -- March 1, 2021

These Hess wells are now reporting. A four-well pad in Cherry Creek, a small two-section, non-descript field in middle-east McKenzie County, "owned" by Hess, and snuggled in among some great fields. The four well pad. Look how "old" two of the permitted wells were:

  • 28088, A/F, Hess, BW-Spring Creek 149-99-1201H-4, Cherry Creek, first production, 9/20; t--; cum 124K 12/20; 
  • 28152, A/F, Hess, BW-Spring Creek 149-99-1201H-5, Cherry Creek, first production, 9/20; t--; cum 97K 12/20; 
  • 37097, A/F, Hess, BW-Spring Creek-149-99-1201H-6, Cherry Creek, first production, 9/20; t--; cum 84K 12/20; 
  • 37096, A/F, Hess, BW-Spring Creek-LE-149-99-1201H-1, Cherry Creek, first production, 9/20; t--; cum 120K 12/20;

37096:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-2020312172521890705440005324677538
BAKKEN11-202030247902474120232491323010619026
BAKKEN10-202031271352705728937597533966320090
BAKKEN9-202030316513195546434733592881644459
BAKKEN8-2020814214136621289836501553030932

37098:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-20203122943230292981839267318687399
BAKKEN11-202030203762012931223413422533316009
BAKKEN10-202075116527690701185078663984
BAKKEN9-202030282622831047306582792289235320
BAKKEN8-2020369286659521617490265014821

28152:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-20203118596187113735744739363098430
BAKKEN11-202030195121951034159403062469815608
BAKKEN10-202031243672434239228515773423617341
BAKKEN9-202030342623402047621571992246834665
BAKKEN8-20202668642102432464922750

28088:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-202031271852733236467535394345110088
BAKKEN11-202030271102705034944605723711623456
BAKKEN10-202031290962899635297626494158621063
BAKKEN9-202030319723206050332684192687541465
BAKKEN8-2020587128374861513100198511101

There's an older Spring Creek well to the east but it is off line (obviously). We will have to wait to see if there was any halo effect. The well:
  • 22418, 724, Hess, BW-Spring Creek-149-99-1201H-1, Cherry Creek, t12/12; cum 120K 10/20; remains off line 12/20 while neighboring wells are fracked.


 

at No comments: