Luxury EV Maker Lucid Looks To Go Public Via A Spac -- Bloomberg -- January 11, 2021

On September 10, 2020, I posted a note about a new EV company: Lucid. At the link, scroll to the bottom of the post. 

Now, today, this from a reader: EV firm Lucid Motors in talks to go public via SPAC deal -- Bloomberg. Link here. Data points:

• could be valued up to $15 billion;
• the SPAC could be a merger with a blank-check firm backed by Michael Klein, a veteran Wall Street dealmaker;
• vehicle: Klein's Churchill Capital Corp IV
• Lucid says it has always been clear about its intent to go public;
• its first product: a luxury model the Lucid Air
• hopes to bring into production this spring, 2021

Comment: these SPACs make "Shark Tank" look trivial and amateurish.

Getting Deep Into The Weeds With QEP's Disco Unit In Van Hook Oil Field -- January 11, 2021

Take a look at this post for background. After that post and an earlier post regarding a sister well to that well, a reader wrote me suggesting I take another look at these wells to see if one might be able to learn more about the Bakken.

The reader writes:

Just a quick note on QEP’s Disco Unit. I’ve attached a graphic on this laydown project for future reference. Six wells have been drilled .... The two wells referenced in your blog – MHA 7-27 & 7-29 have different TDs as referenced in the drilling reports. 

This is the reader's attached graphic:

If I'm reading the graphic correctly, there are two Disco units, a pad to the north - 1-28A - and a pad to the south - 8-28A. 

The NDIC maps suggests eight permitted locations for the north unit, 1-28A, of which permits for two locations were canceled, leaving six locations on the north pad.

This post will discuss only the six wells on the north pad. I am ignoring the south pad for now. None of those wells on the south pad have been spud; they are permitted locations only. For the record, the south pad has two rows of six locations each (a total of twelve locations). Permits for two of those locations, leaving ten wells yet to be drilled.

So, back to the north unit.

My handwritten notes regarding those six wells:

Legend:

• Six wells: I've labeled them #1, #2, #3, #4, #5, and #6, north to south. 
• The top two are still carried as confidential by the NDIC.
• The bottom four are all drl/NC.

#1: Three Forks         (#35453)
#2: Three Forks         (#35455)

#3: Middle Bakken   (#35454)
#4: Middle Bakken   (#35456)

#5: Three Forks        (#35449)
#6: Three Forks        (#35451)

• The odd-numbered horizontals run to the east, arrows pointing to the right.

• The even-numbered horizontals run to the west, arrows pointing to the left.

I abbreviated the well names to keep it simple:

• #1: 7-27 (chronologic #7; bottom hole ends in section 27)
• #2: 7-29

• #3: 5-27
• #4: 5-29 (chronologic #5; bottom hole ends in section 29)

• #5: 4-27
• #6: 4-29 (chronologic #4; bottom hole ends in section 29)

Now for the total vertical depths, measured:
 

#1:

• Middle Bakken:    10,219'
• Three Forks:                             10,278'   

#2:

• Middle Bakken:    10,218'   
• Three Forks:                               10,288'

#3:

• Middle Bakken:    10,213'
• Three Forks:

#4:

• Middle Bakken:    10,220'
• Three Forks:

#5:

• Middle Bakken:    10,214'
• Three Forks:                              10,274'              

#6:

• Middle Bakken:    10,217'
• Three Forks:                            10,268'

I will leave it here, waiting for more observations and comments from the reader.

Note: in a note like there will be content and typographical errors. In addition, I may be misreading things that the reader can clarify.

A Closer Look At The MRO DUC Reported As Completed -- January 11, 2021

The well:

• 33947, drl/A-->4,632, MRO, Prior USA 42-8TFH-2B, 33-061-04125, Reunion Bay, first production, 9/20; t--; cum 95K over 49 days; fracked 8/26/20 - 9/13/20; 9.7 million gallons of water; 75.8% water by mass; 6.7% produced water by mass; production; 65K extrapolates to 73K over 30 days; cum 281K 8/21; was off line for the month of 7/21;
  

  Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
  BAKKEN	11-2020	20	29395	29456	30508	39884	38054	0
  BAKKEN	10-2020	27	65439	64934	77168	71581	64507	3211
  BAKKEN	9-2020	2	159	149	942	517	0	508

From the file report:

• drilling unit, 1620 acres;

Neighboring wells:

• neighboring wells remain off line;

CLR's Lundberg Federal Wells In Rattlesnake Point

New permits (August 8, 2023):

• 40109, conf, CLR, Lundberg Federal 3-8H1, Rattlesnake Point,
• 40110, conf, CLR, Lundberg Federal 4-8H, Rattlesnake Point,
• 40111, conf, CLR, Lundberg Federal 5-8H1, Rattlesnake Point,
• 40112, conf, CLR, Lundberg Federal 6-8H, Rattlesnake Point,
• 40113, conf, CLR, Lundberg Federal 7-8H, Rattlesnake Point,
• 40114, conf, CLR, Lundberg Federal 8-8HSL1, Jim Creek,

The wells (permits):

• 38065, PNC, CLR, Lundberg Federal 3-8HSL1, Jim Creek, NWNW 8-146-96, 358 FNL 1189 FWL, 
• 38066, PNC, CLR, Lundberg Federal 4-8H, Rattlesnake Point, NWNW 8-146-96, 358 FNL 1234 FWL,
• 38067, PNC, CLR, Lundberg Federal 5-8H1, Rattlesnake Point, NWNW 8-146-96, 358 FNL 1279 FWL,
• 38068, PNC, CLR, Lundberg Federal 6-8H, Rattlesnake Point, NWNW 8-146-96, 358 FNL 1324 FWL,
• 38069, PNC, CLR, Lundberg Federal 7-8H1, Rattlesnake Point, NENW 8-146-96, 358 FNL 1369 FWL,
• 38070, PNC, CLR, Lundberg Federal 8-8H, Rattlesnake Point, NENW 8-146-96, 358 FNL 1414 FWL,
• 38071, PNC, CLR, Lundberg Federal 9-8H1, Rattlesnake Point, NENW 8-146-96, 358 FNL 1459 FWL,
• 38072, conf, CLR, Lundberg Federal 10-8H, Rattlesnake Point, NWNE 8-146-96, 550 FNL 1630 FEL,
• 38073, conf, CLR, Lundberg Federal 11-8H1, Rattlesnake Point, NWNE 8-146-96, 518 FNL 1661 FEL,
  
• 38074, conf, CLR, Lundberg Federal 12-8HSL, Jim Creek, NWNE 8-146-96, 486 FNL 1693 FWL,
  

Comments:

• All pretty much in a straight line, running west to east
• Seven 358 FNL and from 1234 FWL to 1459 FWL
• The remaining three are about an additional 200 FWL

The graphic:

CLR With Three More Permits; Five DUCs Reported As Completed -- January 11, 2021

Active rigs:

• NDIC active rigs site is down;
• WTI: $52.14

Three new permits, #38072 - #38075, inclusive

• Operator: CLR
• Fields: Rattlesnake Point
• Comments: CLR has permits for three more Lundberg Federal well in Rattlesnake Point; 
• 38072, conf, CLR, Lundberg Federal 10-8H, Rattlesnake Point, 550 FNL 1630 FEL;
• 38073, conf, CLR, Lundberg Federal 11-8H1, Rattlesnake Point, 518 FNL 1661 FEL;
• 38074, conf, CLR, Lundberg Federal 12-8HSL, Rattlesnake Point, 486FNL 1693 FEL;

Five producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 34255, drl/A, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Tami 8-8-5-157N-99W, Lone Tree Lake, no production data,
• 34257, drl/A, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Tami 7-8-5-157N-99W, Lone Tree Lake, no production data,
• 33947, drl/A, MRO, Prior USA 42-8TFH, 33-061-04125, Reunion Bay, first production, 9/20; t--; cum 95K over 49 days;
• 37457, loc/A, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-13D-12-7H, Phelps Bay, no production data,
• 37458, loc/A, Petro-Hunt, USA153-95-13D-12-6H, Phelps Bay, no production data,

Subscription Model

Subscription model: for those who have been paying attention, the new mantra in technology and streaming services -- "monthly revenue stream." Amazon took the lead with Amazon Prime and then Alexa; that opened the doors. Sure, others were doing it before Amazon but Amazon's Prime and Alexa really, really opened up the concept to the masses and for other companies to emulate. 

Apple: watch for Apple to announce -- at some point in the future -- that they are starting to take orders for their new car. Re-posting from December 23, 2020, well before we heard the official announcement regarding an Apple-Hyundai partnership. Note the "2024" date in the post below -- posted December 23, 2020. That's now the same date that Apple is using: 2024. 

By the way, elsewhere, Apple mentioned that it was moving toward a "hardware / software" subscription" model without further elaboration, but one can imagine. Technically, most folks buy their new iPhones on a subscription model even though such purchases are not marketed that way. But one can imagine it's a small step from "an iPhone by subscription" to "a MacBook Pro by subscription." This is different than purchasing with a credit card. For the buyer, the difference may be immaterial, but think about it: instead of paying for an Apple MacPro with one's Visa card, one pays a monthly fee directly to Apple. The "middle man" is bypassed; money paid directly to Apple. One would think the cost savings would be passed back to the consumer. LOL. For investors, think what this might mean for MasterCard, Visa, Discover, etc. 

Note: later a reader provided this bit of insight, which suggests an example of monthly revenue stream in the truck market:

Although I no longer closely follow Nikola Motor, (the CEO's shenanigans were a real gut punch), their approach to vehicle sales/distribution struck me as particularly brilliant.

Condensed version ... Nikola would not sell any Class 8 trucks, only lease them for, I believe, 7-year terms, with monthly fee set, all maintenance costs included (sans tires, I think), and one million miles free fuel (hydrogen,  as  the trucks were re-designed to be battery/electric with recharging mechanism  being hydrogen fuel cells. 

 

The novel electrolysis - based hydrogen production may yet be the most enduring impact ... IF it is shown to 'work').

Longer term, the shift towards some type of electric propulsion may yet prove viable, but MANY differing approaches are ferociously competing for dominance.

*********************************
Fanciful AppleCar Reservations And Pricing

The tea leaves suggest it is only a matter of time before a monthly subscription will be the way folks buy EVs in the future. 

For example:

• Apple sets the base price of their 2024 model for $100,000;
• one can reserve a 2024 model by subscribing;
• the initial down payment is $1,000 and then a monthly "fee" of $500 until the car is delivered;
• the initial down payment gets you a coupon to purchase the car at 75% of the advertised price ($100,000 in this case);
• the delivery date is stamped on the coupon (first come, first served method) and guaranteed; every month delay would require the regular $500 subscription fee but the price of the AppleCar would come down by a similar amount each month until delivery;
• the AppleCar like all Apple products would have a warranty for one year, with an extended AppleCarCare warranty up to ten years, also at a subscription/streaming price;
  
• the coupon is transferable with no strings attached, and can be bought and sold like any other equity; the AppleCarCare warranty would also be transferable.

The price points shown are just pulled from thin air, but "Disney analysts" could easily come up with the best price points for the initial down payment and the monthly "fees." 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Re-Posting: Mass Transit And Car-Pooling Dead In China -- Country Calls For Social Distancing -- January 11, 2021

Look at this: carpooling and mass transit is dead in China due to calls for social distancing.

*************************
Autos

Ford: will stop manufacturing in Brazil in 2021 as part of a restructuring plan meant to cut costs and increase efficiency. The company is closing two plants immediately and a third later in the year, affecting about 5,000 workers. Announced/posted January 11, 2021. Selected updates for "autos" are posted here. 

Tesla: BofA just set a new price target for TSLA -- a "street" high of $900/share. Link here. Announced/posted January 11, 2021.

I mentioned this to a reader yesterday that Tesla could easily increased its float by another 10% and the price of TSLA would probably go up. Tesla could raise another $75 billion and probably not see any decrease in share price. The fact that Tesla has not done that yet is interesting.

The Sports Page -- Best Part Of The Day -- Stephen A -- January 11, 2021

First things first: pop quiz --

• quick, name the country that has a region that has the highest volume of snowfall of any inhabited and arable region in the world -- correct answer: 100 points;
• name the region of that country (spelling errors will be overlooked) -- correct answer: 1,000 points

Now back to Stephen A over at ESPN:

I guess there were some games played yesterday. Just checked the scores. What happened!!!?? Cleveland Browns beat the Pittsburgh Steelers? Say what? I can't wait to hear Stephen A talk about his favorite team. LOL.

I had to go back and look at the box score. 28 - 0 in the first quarter. Wow. This was the Cleveland Browns against the Steelers? Has there ever been a 28 - 0 score in the first quarter in the NFL playoffs. I assume so, but this is pretty amazing. 

It looks like Ben R stayed a year too long.  He will have the highest salary cap in 2021. And that comes in a year in which the NFL salary cap likely to drop. $41.3 million cap hit if on 2021 roster. Dak Prescott is looking better every day. LOL.

I thought the Washington team was in the playoffs but didn't see their name on the weekend scorecard. I may have missed them; maybe a name change I missed.

The rest of the games / scores interested me not. 

I don't care for Stephen A but like a train wreck I can't not watch. So I tune in for a few minutes, but will switch to its sister station. 

Ohio - Alabama tonight. Haven't decided whether I will any of it. Highly unlikely. May surf through it periodically.

*************************************
In Other News

China flu watch: all that talk about folks refusing to be vaccinated. Gaslighting? Fake news? Whatever?

Link here.

**********************************
Asia LNG Spikes

Link here.

**************************
Fossil Fuel Is Dead! Long Live Fossil Fuel

WTI today: $52.01. 

Link here.

And then look at this: carpooling and mass transit is dead in China due to calls for social distancing.

Earnings Season Kicks Off -- Today's Note From Yahoo!Finance -- FWIW -- January 11, 2021

Earnings season kicks off today.

Earnings -- 4Q20
October - December, 2020

 

This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. If this is important to you, go to the source. There will be content and typographical errors on this page. If something looks wrong, it probably is.

From the daily Yahoo!Finance note:

"The economy is in danger of sliding backwards here if the blue wave fiscal stimulus spending isn't brought forward quickly in the first days of the Biden administration,” MUFG Chief Financial Economist Chris Rupkey said on Friday. 

“The Biden administration will be judged by what they do to support the economy in the first two weeks rather than the traditional measure of the first 100 days." 

The disappointing jobs report, however, did come with some silver linings including the fact that industries less sensitive to COVID were still growing. 

“[If] it weren’t for strong gains in other industries, the employment report would have been even weaker,” Morgan Stanley’s Ellen Zentner said. 

“[B]ut those large declines in COVID-sensitive sectors, many of which may be temporary, were offset by quite strong gains elsewhere, with retail, manufacturing, construction, professional & business services, and health care jobs, among others, all growing quite robustly in December.” 

Things are looking up. 

The idea that the underlying economy is in decent shape jibes bullishly with what’s shaping to be a “fiscal goldilocks” scenario: a divided government that’s capable of pushing through additional emergency fiscal support while being unable to advance tax policy seen as inhibiting growth in the corporate sector. 

Indeed, following the results of last Tuesday’s Georgia runoff elections, economists across Wall Street boosted their forecasts for GDP growth in 2021. Some economists have even pulled forward their expectations for tighter Fed policy.

There is much more in the note, some of it heavily laden with unnecessary political rhetoric. If I could find the link I would add but this is in my news feed without a link. I'm sure it's easy to find if one wants. 

4Q20 Earnings

Note: this is, hands down, one of the most boring things I to do each quarter. I doubt anyone really looks at it but the day I quit doing this will be the day I miss posting something important. The word "important" is used loosely. Very loosely.

This is linked at the top of the sidebar at the right during earnings season. After earnings -- pretty much after Whiting and Apple posts their earning, this post will move back into obscurity.

Calendar.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.

Earnings -- 4Q20
October - December, 2020

This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. If this is important to you, go to the source. There will be content and typographical errors on this page. If something looks wrong, it probably is.

January 11, 2021: banks kick off earnings season.

EOG: 4Q20 earnings. 

CLR: 4Q20 earnings; corporate presentation; here; 

NEE vs SRE: link here. SRE transcript.

DIS: Disney reported after hours, Feb 11, 2021:

• closed up 0.75% just ahead of earnings release:
• after hours: up over 2%
• beats estimates
• subscribers soar to 95 million; well ahead of the 90 million forecast;
• unexpected profit; a loss was expected!
• earned 32 cents / share vs a loss of 38 cents expected;

Tesla: incredibly bad earnings report; analysts trying to blow it off;

AAPL: forecast. Also, at Forbes. Blows away estimates.

Microsoft blows away 2Q21 expectations on cloud and personal computing strength -- Yahoo!Finance. Link here. CNBC "Fast Money" panelists are simply amazed at the beat. Bottom line: MFST seems to be in the sweet spot with regard to the pandemic. If so, one can imagine the other winners. Not being said: the pandemic. Tonight's CDC numbers may be the most interesting numbers in ten days. If the CDC numbers are not a whole lot better tonight .....

MSFT surges. Up three dollars during normal trading hours; up another $15 after the close. Up about 9% for the day. The "Fast Money" panelists go back to IBM -- suggesting the earlier numbers are a lot worse than originally thought -- one panelist has actually removed "IBM" from his radar scope. 

Big concern: two two-trillion-dollar companies are going to "box out" a lot of other tech companies.

Starbucks 1Q21 earnings top estimates, but same-store sales hit by Covid-19. SBUX up about 1 percent during the day but then down 1.6% after hours. Overall, a disappointing day. Analysts, yesterday, suggested that Starbucks guidance today would be the bellwether for the pandemic. Not looking good.

SLB: must have done okay; shares up 22 cents (almost 1% when the overall market was down); huge beat; 22 cents per share vs 17 cents forecast; revenue of $5.5 billion vs $5.25 billion forecast.

AA: wow -- day after earnings, down almost 10%. Trading at $20.80. 

UAL: not unexpected. Posted a $2.1 billion 4Q20 loss, its fourth-in-a-row; issued a tepid near-term forecast. Down another 5% today. Trading at $42.75.

BKR: shares up nicely so investors must have been happy with results.

UNP: in line at best; shares fall more than 3%. Huge disappointment.

KB Homes: shares jump; profits exceed expectations. $1.12/share. But look at this: expectations: 87 cents/share. Revenue of $1.19 billion exceeded expectations of $1.11 billion. 

BlackRock: huge beat.

AAPL earnings estimate (January 14, 2021: $1.40/share; will report January 27, 2021).

JP Morgan: big 4Q20 earnings beat. Revenues, $29.2 billion vs $28.65 billion; EPS, $3.79 vs $2.62 expected. 

Bank of New York Mellon: plunged after missing expectations. 

KMI: beats 4Q20 earnings and revenue estimates; 27 cents vs 24 cents; and $3.12 billion; beats estimates by almost 2%. Only once in the last four quarters has KMI beat estimates. 

UAL: shares drop about 3% after reporting record loss; CNBC tried to put a good face on this, but did not convince me; bullish analysts are counting on a Biden miracle; 

AA: shares drop a bit despite beating estimates; guidance not not assuring; 

PG: slips slightly after earnings; same ol' same ol';

2021: Key Wells To Watch -- January 11, 2021

Key wells to watch in 2021: Link here. Archived.

************************************
Tonight on PBS: Codebreaker

Trailer here. You may have to get rid of an ad and click a couple of times to get to the trailer. 

*************************************
For The Archives
For the Granddaughters

B-52s over the Mideast.

There is nothing to see here. Just some links to YouTube videos, a link to a story to set the record straight on the USS Nimitz, etc. This is all for the archives and for the granddaughters.

This is for my personal benefit to go back to if conditions warrant. 

• Inside a B-52 cockpit: takeoff to landing. 
• MITO exercise: Minot AFB, ND.  
• B-52, Minot, tail flash. 
• USS Nimitz carrier strike group ordered back to the Middle East.  
• Joint exercise: Saudi F-15s, US B-52s, and US F-16s concluded. 

I've had one sortie in the B-52, flying out of Grand Forks, back in 1982, or thereabouts. Eight-hour mission; low-level at night, in the weather, through the Rockies.

I've had almost exactly 100 sorties in the F-15, all of them overseas: Germany, England, Spain, Italy, Africa.

I have never flown in the F-16 by choice. Many opportunities but I was pretty sure I didn't want to experience the g-forces and/or head-banging. 

I have never been on an aircraft carrier. 

I've been on the ground in Iraq with US Army special ops. Peacetime mission following terrorist attack.

I've had one tour of a nuclear submarine (not under sail, in port).

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- January 11, 2021

The wells coming off confidential list:

• 36548, conf, Oasis, Thelen 5297 11-6 4B, Banks,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2020	4727	12564
10-2020	33881	82574
9-2020	1971	5138
8-2020	1700	3801
7-2020	18822	42013

• 36547, conf, Oasis, Thelen 5297 11-6 3TX, Banks,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2020	7809	20060
10-2020	27675	74216
9-2020	1065	2333
8-2020	2003	3844
7-2020	15780	41786

• 37461, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-13C-12-3H, Phelps Bay, no production data, 
• 37460, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-13C-12-4H, Phelps Bay, no production data, 
• 37459, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-13D-12-5H, Phelps Bay, no production data, 
• 36709, conf,  Hess, BL-Amelia-156-95-1514H-11, Beaver Lodge,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2020	7854	21543
10-2020	14093	26292
9-2020	13844	22101
8-2020	14856	21779
7-2020	21351	33440

• 36708, conf,  Hess, BL, Amelia-156-95-1514H-10, Beaver Lodge,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2020	9424	18738
10-2020	12707	20586
9-2020	9599	18196
8-2020	16196	24836
7-2020	20364	31441

• 36380, conf, Hess, EN-Person-156-94-1102H-6, Big Butte,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2020	15040	24045
10-2020	16713	23934
9-2020	12688	15857
8-2020	19311	14664
7-2020	22297	5433

Eight Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- Hess, Petro-Hunt, Oasis -- January 11, 2021

Tonight on PBS: CodebreakerTrailer here. You may have to get rid of an ad and click a couple of times to get to the trailer.

High impact wells to follow in 2021: great overview.  

Free market capitalism: Vietnam is buying Indian rice for first time ever. Yawn. Except this:

Vietnam is the world's third biggest exporter of rice -- and now it's importing rice from rival India for the first time in decades after local prices (in Vietnam) jumped to their highest in nine years amid limited domestic supplies. 

What was that old saying? "Carrying coal to Newcastle?"

********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

• It appears DMR is "down" this morning.
• WTI: $51.89 -- down 35 cents overnight so that means it was over $52 at some point.
  

Eight wells coming off the confidential list -- for initial production data for these wells, see this post:

Monday, January 11, 2021: 16 for the month, 16 for the quarter, 16 for the year.

• 36548, conf, Oasis, Thelen 5297 11-6 4B, Banks, nice well;
  
• 36547, conf, Oasis, Thelen 5297 11-6 3TX, Banks, nice well;
  

Sunday, January 10, 2021: 14 for the month, 14 for the quarter, 14 for the year.

• 37461, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-13C-12-3H, Phelps Bay,
  

Saturday, January 9, 2021: 13 for the month, 13 for the quarter, 13 for the year.

• 37460, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-13C-12-4H, Phelps Bay,
  
• 37459, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-13D-12-5H, Phelps Bay,
  
• 36709, conf, Hess, BL-Amelia-156-95-1514H-11, Beaver Lodge, nice well;
  
• 36708, conf, Hess, BL, Amelia-156-95-1514H-10, Beaver Lodge; nice well;
  
• 36380, conf, Hess, EN-Person-156-94-1102H-6, Big Butte; big well;
  

Charlson oil field and Petro-Hunt: see this post.

RBN Energy: 2020's upheavals bring midstreamers' challenges to the fore.

Much the way that COVID-19 accelerated the trends toward working from anywhere, shopping online, and exercising at home, the pandemic and its far-reaching energy-market effects fast-forwarded the challenges that many North American midstream companies had been expecting to face more gradually through the 2020s. The good news — if you can call it that — is that a lot of economic pain was front-loaded into the past 10 months. The bad news is that a sizable subset of midstreamers is saddled with too much capacity in shale basins where drilling activity and production are down sharply. For them, there’s still more pain ahead, even bankruptcy in a few cases. In today’s blog, we discuss highlights from the newly released 2021 edition of East Daley Capital’s Dirty Little Secrets report about what’s ahead for the midstream sector and 27 leading companies within it.

2020 threw a gut punch to the midstream sector in the U.S. and Canada and forced a gut check at many midstream companies that saw their plans and expectations for the first half of the 2020s torn asunder. A year ago, before the coronavirus gained a foothold in North America, there was a general consensus among midstream executives that (1) the boom years for energy infrastructure development were beginning to wind down; (2) the midstream sector was entering an era of top-to-bottom reevaluation and rationalization; and (3) capacity was being overbuilt in some areas, most notably crude pipelines out of the Permian. All that remained true as COVID-19 took root and spread in March, April, and beyond, but all kinds of new, troublesome issues arose, many of them related to the fact that less crude oil and refined products were being produced and transported by pipeline.

"Focus On Fracking" Posted; North Dakota Catches Attention Of Oilprice.com -- January 11, 2021

This week's edition of "Focus on Fracking" has been posted. The lede:

• gasoline demand at a 32-week low;
• gasoline supplies up most in 35 weeks;
• distillates supplies up the most in 31 weeks

And yet, WTI is holding at $50+.

*************************************
North Dakota Catches Attention Of Oilprice.com

 ***************************
Asia: LNG Spot Prices Hit Record High

 

An Old Petro-Hunt Well With 65x Jump In Production -- January 10, 2021

A little background for newbies: the Charlson oil field is one of my favorite fields. It is "owned" by Petro-Hunt, and the wells are incredibly good. The field seems to be a good one for "advantaged" oil. The field is tracked here but has not been updated in a very long time. Within the last few months, Petro-Hunt seems to have become a bit more active in the Bakken, which pretty much means this field. 

The well (see this post for full production):

The well:

• 16693, 300, Petro-Hunt, USA 12B-2-1H, Charlson, t8/08; cum 108K 10/20; off line 11/20; back on line 3/21; cum 124K 8/21;
  

Stimulated/tested: August 30, 2008: 600K lbs of sand;

Stripper well: April 20, 2011.

FracFocus: no data. 

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2020	0	0	0	0	662	0	662
BAKKEN	10-2020	13	1881	2057	438	2515	1955	471
BAKKEN	9-2020	30	6503	6468	1422	9140	7881	1050
BAKKEN	8-2020	1	249	0	60	554	183	366
BAKKEN	7-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2020	0	0	0	0	1545	0	1545
BAKKEN	5-2020	0	0	0	0	2	2	0
BAKKEN	4-2020	20	4306	4617	811	4125	2815	1178
BAKKEN	3-2020	31	6888	6808	1737	3753	3537	0
BAKKEN	2-2020	27	5749	5807	2067	6844	4116	2547
BAKKEN	1-2020	31	9937	10016	3425	14706	0	14490
BAKKEN	12-2019	27	9743	10569	3826	11188	0	11016
BAKKEN	11-2019	5	3376	2314	1535	17663	0	17628
BAKKEN	10-2019	1	32	0	15	10	0	10
BAKKEN	9-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2019	21	107	0	37	33	22	11
BAKKEN	6-2019	30	141	231	35	249	73	176

A neighboring horizontal recently fracked:

• 31497, 1,657, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-1B-7-4H, Three Forks, 33-053-07050, Charlson, t12/19; cum 179K 10/20; off line 11/20; 42 stages; 8.4 million lbs proppant; 10/9/19; fracked 10/9/19 - 10/18/19; 11.3 million gallons of water; 91.7% water by mass. Cum 265K 8/21; recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	13201	13206	8334	19401	5542	10550
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	16125	16031	10273	23439	3916	16879
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	16129	16146	11118	23387	4615	15659
BAKKEN	5-2021	31	17182	17235	13303	25848	0	404
BAKKEN	4-2021	30	20347	20277	18459	31040	0	25622
BAKKEN	3-2021	7	3200	3156	5313	4037	0	3720

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2020	0	0	26	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2020	25	16083	16463	9623	24363	24137	52
BAKKEN	9-2020	30	17564	17119	8798	24231	23964	72
BAKKEN	8-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2020	21	5429	5764	4741	7459	7076	242
BAKKEN	3-2020	31	15052	14989	11403	22459	22013	355
BAKKEN	2-2020	29	28002	28147	19670	44339	34572	9767
BAKKEN	1-2020	31	36991	37002	25656	61520	0	61520
BAKKEN	12-2019	31	46098	46170	23997	74645	0	74645
BAKKEN	11-2019	10	13457	12838	1389	11195	0	11195
BAKKEN	10-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0