The Bruin FB Belford Wells -- Rolling Out Bakken 4.5 -- December 12, 2021

Updates

December 20, 2021, full note here:

• 36302, conf, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-14B-LL, Eagle Nest, 33-025-03775, first production, 6/21; t--; cum 123K 10/21; FracFocus reports two fracks, which we've discussed before:
• first frack, 5/11/21 - 5/22/21: 8.367 million gallons of water, 83.04421% water by mass; 10.22434% sand by mass;
• second frack, 5/11/21 - 5/22/21; 8.939 million gallons of water; 83.04421% water by mass; 10.22434% sand by mass;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2021	30	18583	18622	10298	25842	22537	305
BAKKEN	9-2021	13	12880	12734	8257	14162	12223	146
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	31390	31346	36670	39998	37939	1241
BAKKEN	7-2021	29	40500	40541	40207	43835	42432	1403
BAKKEN	6-2021	11	19332	19016	21922	17927	16383	1209

December 17, 2021: an update with frack data. 

Later, 4:29 p.m. CT: a reader replied to the "pad drilling" issue --

A few years back, some industry executive was explaining some of the economics behind not only 4 to 6 wells per pad simultaneously being drilled/completed, but also the then-emerging trend of simultaneously developing 3 to 4 pads in close proximity.

Interesting perspective. 

Taking those six Bruin wells that you have noted for example, at $6 million per well, Bruin would have 'pre-paid' $36 million before any revenue came back. 

With a cumulative production just over half a million barrels (~511,000) and $50/bbl pricing, Bruin would have already grossed about $25 million in oil revenue and $2 million from the gas ... roughly. 

It may take till the end of a year, but Bruin may be 'in the money' after 12 month's time.

For operators doing this on, say, four pads simultaneously, the capital outlay could approach $150 million prior to any revenue coming in. 

Definitely a game for the Big Boys. 

(That executive also stressed that the logistics could be daunting trying to develop 16/20 wells simultaneously, but the 'discount/efficiencies' could be well worth it when giving a LOT of business to the chosen oil field service contractors).

By the way, there's another way for smaller companies like Bruin to pay for the fracking. [The drilling costs are almost inconsequential compared to everything else, especially fracking.] Some operators will share in the production with the servicing / fracking companies to pay off the costs of the work. I've seen that talked about elsewhere -- overseas? I don't know if it's being done in the Bakken?  

Regardless, once the cash flow starts, it becomes easier to tackle the next big project. 

Original Post

Well, well, well -- no pun intended. LOL. I've been waiting to roll out Bakken 4.5, and today is the day. Rolling out Bakken 4.5.  

Bakken 4.5 is defined as the period in which we, as observers, move from a focus on single-well completions, and start to focus on pad drilling. Yes, pad drilling has been going on for several years now, but mostly by a handful of operators. Now, it has become the norm for all operators. 

In fact, if an operator is not pad drilling, that operator may not be around for long. It's just too inefficient and expensive not to be pad drilling (infill / development wells; this does not apply to exploratory wells). 

But before moving into Bakken 4.5 I wanted to see:

• a recovery in the price of oil, which we have; and,
• the "end" of Covid-19 determining activity in the shale plays; and, perhaps to some extent,
• shale-operator CAPEX discipline

If the third "factor" (shale-operator CAPEX discipline) moved to hyper-activity / insane CAPEX increases, then I would move directly to Bakken 5.0.

These are incredibly good wells. I can't remember my early thoughts on the Eagle Nest oil field. Let's look together. The Eagle Nest is tracked here, but like all fields, I have not kept up with the updates. But that's fine. The original posts were done during the boom. March 25, 2012, the original assessment:

Forty-four sections as of March, 2012. A very active field with four rigs on site as of March, 2012. The field is noted for its multi-well pads. Major operator is Petro-Hunt. One of the most scenic highways in North Dakota, state highway 22, pretty much splits the field in half, east half from west half.  This is going to be a great field.

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The Bruin FB Belford Wells

The wells: 

• 22300, SI/A, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-2T, Eagle Nest, 33-025-01602, first production, 8/21; t--; cum 23K 10/21; 

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	9772	9748	7594	11946	9099	1281
BAKKEN	9-2021	25	11688	11627	8570	13973	10831	1143
BAKKEN	8-2021	5	1601	1600	1535	5126	3762	403
BAKKEN	7-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	2	0	0	13758	309	198	97

• 22301, SI/A, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-3B, Eagle Nest, 33-025-01603, first production, 6/21; t--; cum 154K 10/21; 41K over 22 days extrapolates to 56K over 30 days;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	23999	23939	12831	42918	34129	4804
BAKKEN	9-2021	29	25592	25709	8339	38079	30411	3209
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	31608	31586	16561	38864	33199	3561
BAKKEN	7-2021	27	31950	32004	20584	33191	28921	4270
BAKKEN	6-2021	22	41192	40643	45859	41111	26643	13138

• 36302, conf, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-14B-LL, Eagle Nest, first production, 6/21; t--; cum 125K 10/21;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2021	18622	22537
9-2021	12734	12223
8-2021	31346	37939
7-2021	40541	42432
6-2021	19016	16383

• 36303, conf, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-13T-LL, Eagle Nest, 33-025-03776, first production, 6/21; t--; cum 125K 10/21;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2021	26302	39502
9-2021	23231	31333
8-2021	22512	26863
7-2021	29830	31424
6-2021	23335	21

• 36304, conf, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-10B, Eagle Nest, first production, 6/21; t--; cum --:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2021	13998	8955
9-2021	3734	1312
8-2021	13564	12776
7-2021	29143	26836
6-2021	25029	15594

• 36305, conf, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-8T, Eagle Nest, 33-025-03778, first production, 6/21; --; t--; cum 102K 10/21; obviously, 24K over 15 days extrapolates to 48K over 30 days:
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	15440	15401	13313	23138	18048	2541
BAKKEN	9-2021	28	18805	18854	14238	26295	20869	2202
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	19061	19048	23270	24391	20633	2213
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	24105	24136	33429	29890	26045	3845
BAKKEN	6-2021	15	24092	23771	39643	26627	17503	8631

• 36306, SI/A, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-7B, Eagle Nest, 33-025-03779; first production, 6/21, --; t--; cum 161K 10/21; 34K over 18 days extrapolates to 56K over 30 days:
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	19289	19241	7071	30953	24340	3426
BAKKEN	9-2021	28	25063	25138	8502	37416	29932	3159
BAKKEN	8-2021	27	31726	31704	15569	39810	34065	3654
BAKKEN	7-2021	29	50996	51040	26140	65504	57077	8427
BAKKEN	6-2021	18	33693	33244	37265	40321	26488	13062

• 36307, SI/A, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-6T, Eagle Nest, first production, 10/21; t--; cum --;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	2882	2874	6869	2605	1864	262
BAKKEN	9-2021	6	0	0	29259	21	19	2
BAKKEN	8-2021	6	0	0	40481	19	17	2
BAKKEN	7-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	1	62	61	1371	82	52	26

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