Of course we will never know, but there are two schools of thought on this issue, even in Saudi Arabia: one OPEC+ spokesman says there will be a glut in 2022 and another Saudi spokesperson says there could be a 30% shortfall due to under-investment.
There's also the problem of definition: the definition of spare capacity. My hunch, at $150, the Saudis would find all kind of oil; certainly the operators in ND, NM, and TX would find copious amounts of oil "overnight." At $30-WTI, not so much.
So, like everything else, there will be much talk in the 1Q22 about "spare capacity" but that's all it will be: talk. And I'll certainly blog about with my biased opinions. LOL.
I don't believe that the spare capacity is smaller than the IEA states. JMHO
ReplyDeleteOf course we will never know, but there are two schools of thought on this issue, even in Saudi Arabia: one OPEC+ spokesman says there will be a glut in 2022 and another Saudi spokesperson says there could be a 30% shortfall due to under-investment.
DeleteThere's also the problem of definition: the definition of spare capacity. My hunch, at $150, the Saudis would find all kind of oil; certainly the operators in ND, NM, and TX would find copious amounts of oil "overnight." At $30-WTI, not so much.
So, like everything else, there will be much talk in the 1Q22 about "spare capacity" but that's all it will be: talk. And I'll certainly blog about with my biased opinions. LOL.