The Five Energy Stories To Follow Today And Through The End Of The Month -- November 5, 2021

Note: in a long note like this, there will be typographical and content errors. Some links may be wrong or broken; if you find a link that is wrong, let me know.

Note: this is not an investment site. Notes that could be construed as related to investing are simply there to follow the money which helps me understand the energy sector. 

Note: facts and opinions are interspersed; it's hard to tell the different. If any of this is important to you, go to the source.

MPC: before we get started, this random observation. Seldom do I seen any of the four panelists on Melissa Lee's show mention any refiner as their "final trade" on her show. Yesterday, one of the best of the panelists made MPC his final trade. I about fell off  my chair. He sees something the rest of us don't. This is what he sees; huge. Worth the subscription price for the blog.

Now, on to today's early morning post. Five energy stories to follow today and through the end of the month.

SPR release: it looks like the Brandon administration could announce release of significant amount of oil from US SPR.

Line 5: it looks like the Brandon administration could announce the closure of Line 5. 

CLR: on an acquisition binge.

Shale: returning cash to shareholders.

Deals: in the oil patch.

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SPR Release

Here we go:

• chart of the day: US national average gasoline is fast approaching $3.50 per gallon, a level seen only a few times in the last 20 years; Biden administration is in panic mode; lost Virginia this week;
• OPEC+ to Brandon administration: "you do your job; we do ours. We're not changing our decision."
  Brandon administration will release oil from the SPR; will take pressure off their rapidly depleting inventories;
• if he doesn't follow through, he's going to look even weak to OPEC+;
• Brandon administration playing checkers; OPEC+ (Saudi/Putin) playing chess.
• US releases oil from SPR; OPEC+ will announce it is taking one million bopd off market
• why OPEC will remain conservative: it's not over 'til it's over;
• related: how the US lost control of the giant Iraqi oil field: link to Simon Watkins.
• releasing oil from SPR makes no sense at all; gasoline problem won't be solved with more oil; that's not the problem; US refiners operating at 85% operable capacity; US crude oil inventories have risen by about 20 mb/d in recent week while crude inputs into refineries are about 1 mb/d less than they were in 2018; 
• Permian: things have changed. Permian supply and pipelines to the gulf coast: excess capacity; so the futures curve is forcing a major de-stock. Brent-WTI super tight; Cushing getting emptied.
  

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Line 5

Brandon administration currently studying whether that would impact gasoline prices. Should be a short study. Link here.

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CLR: On Acquisition Binge

Here we go:

• Permian: CLR's third major back-to-back acquisition in past year;
• Teutoburg: negative on Permian acquisition; and look at that -- $65K / BOE -- exactly what MDW posted earlier; whoo-hoo!
• Permian acquisition: like me, others are confused.

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Shale: Returning Cash to Shareholders

Devon:

• reported earnings of $1.24, vs 0.92 cents forecast; earnings whisper was $1.03;
• crushes 3Q21 declared fixed-plus-variable dividend of 84 cents/share; cash balance increased $782 million to $2.3 billion; free cash flow for the quarter was $1.1 billion.
• 9% 2022 dividend yield while buying back 4% of market cap;
• 3Q21: $1 billion share repurchase program; 46% increase in operating cash flow; 71% increase in dividend;
• Ezra goes big on his first result at CEO: huge;https://twitter.com/BillyMcFarlend/status/1456357784828715020

EOG: earnings, website; EOG financials (pdf);

OXY: more than doubles profit, 3Q21;

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Deals In The Oil Patch

A few:

• Southwestern acquires another private Haynesville producer in $1.85 billion deal;
• El Paso sends more natural gas westbound in possible easing to capacity restrictions; Platts;
• Southwestern Energy: 3Q21 earnings; social media thread;

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Pre-Market

Quickly:

• Peloton: crashing
• Uber and AirBNB: surging; pre-pandemic numbers; huge; Covid-19 is so over for the US;
• Expedia: huge beat; this is the earnings call to listen to; already booking out to summer next year; trying to get reservation for this year -- not gonna happen;
• Zillow: crushed; this is why;