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Wednesday, November 3, 2021

The Fed -- November, 2021

No surprises:

  • no rate hikes; remains at 0 - 0.25%; fed rates unhanged
  • taper to begin this month, $15 billion: $10 billion in bonds; $5 billion, mortgage-backed securities
    • will continue in December, 2021
  • an accommodative policy
    • Dow: down 140 just before the announcement
    • Dow: down 110 after the announcement -- a dovish taper
      • Steve Liesman does not yet consider this a dovish taper
      • sees some hawkishness -- already announcing the taper in December
      • wow, talk about splitting hairs
    • the S&P; up very slightly right after the announcement; now flat -- sees this as a dovish announcement;
    • ten-year Treasury: 1.577% yield
  • semiconductors on fire the past two weeks, continues
    • would not have aggressive move if they thought aggressive rate hike on the horizon

CNBC will now talk about this non-announcement for the next full hour. LOL.  Ah, yes, the "dot plot" is back. LOL. 

Semiconductors: on fire. Absolutely on fire. 

Market getting fun to watch:

  • Nasdaq moving up quickly.
  • S&P flirting with green but can't quite stay in the green.
  • Dow has cut it's "negative 140" to "negative 70" right now.
  • Yes, the "market" likes the Fed's comments. 

Steve Liesman: the lone voice suggesting the Fed announcement today was somewhat hawkish. Yes, he did say that.

Too late: everyone says the Fed waited too long to begin tapering; the market certainly suggests otherwise. Whatever. 

Records:

  • all four US equity markets set new records
  • Dow, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and the Russell 2000
  • thirteenth month in a row that the S&P 500 has hit a new high
  • remember: seasonal -- look at my favorite chart and remind yourself that Christmas spending is already beginning

My favorite chart, US money market fund monitor, link here. These folks are earning zero percent on their money. They are also ignoring the recent $1 trillion infrastructure bill already passed and the $3.5 trillion social infrastructure bill working its way through the US Congress.

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