Boom: DE (Deere) is up $11 in pre-market trading. And their customers use a lot of diesel and a lot of fertilizer. Breaking: fertilizer shortage may lead to spring scramble on North America's farms. Link here.
Denver: in a panic over Covid surge. I have no sympathy. Their Covid numbers are much lower than the first surge; current numbers are artificially high due to increased testing, greater awareness, bigger Medicare reimbursement; they've had over a year to prepare for a surge; and, they still ignore their huge river blindness problem. Admitting the river blindness problem would do two things immediately: it would take peoples' minds off Covid; and, it would allow the state to distribute ivermectin to the entire population.
Eric Nuttall: the short-termism of today's SPR release blows my mind. Thirty-two million 'new' barrels is a rounding error yet introduces politically-induced price risk just as the US shale companies thing about 2022 budgets. We've seen the lows for oil and stocks and I'm going 'all in' today, given valuations." End the quotation. Link here to see social commentary.
Oil export bans: after yesterday's debacle for the government, all talk of an oil export ban is off the table. But looking at historical prices, a US crude oil export ban would be a huge, huge win for US Big Oil and their investors. OPEC did quite well with a cartel. So would the US. Big losers: western Europe. China. Japan.
Pending: today's EIA numbers on refiners. My hunch: they are operating at well below 90% capacity.
So much more, but I think this is enough for one post.
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