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Thursday, October 28, 2021

Notes From All Over -- The Big Stories Today: Suncor, Shell, US Housing Sales, US GDP -- October 28, 2021

Devil's advocate: I'm beginning to think all the prognostications that "we" desperately need more oil and more natural gas production is a very, very false narrative.

Cash! Shell (RDS) has recorded the highest ever cash flow from operations.

OPEC: no longer the swing producer. Sees tighter 4Q21 oil market ... hey, aren't we already in the fourth quarter, and the definition of "swing producer" is 30/90.

US natural gas storage: in fine shape coming into winter. EIA stats from yesterday.

Renewable investments: US investors shunning solar, wind; most fund managers now say they prefer traditional energy companies.

Oh, oh: Tesla is setting the bar for EVs --- VW CEO admits. Link here. VW is the "people's car."

Tesla: is anyone paying attention. From today:

Even after Tesla raised its prices this past weekend, the automaker’s Model 3 four-door sedan still costs $45,190, roughly comparable with competitors like 2021 Nissan Leaf and the 2022 Chevrolet Bolt EUV. Tesla’s Model Y car, a crossover SUV, now costs $58,190 — similar in price to a 2021 Ford Mustang Mach-E SUV. 
Comment: the writer is low-balling the Tesla -- saying that Musk's bold prediction thirteen years was right, but having said that, the writer suggests that the Tesla is in the same ballpark as the Chevy Bolt. Bolt. Tesla. Bolt. Tesla. Decisions, decisions. And even worse: Nissan Leaf. Tesla. Nissan Leaf. Tesla. Decisions, decisions. 
If this has come down to a decision between Tesla and the Bolt or Tesla and the Nissan Leaf ... I'll take that bet.

San Francisco: sets all-time high ... for gasoline -- $4.75 / gallon.  But it could be worse -- London: 143 pence per liter. 

  • one liter = 0.264172 gallons
  • 143 pence = $1.96 (today's rate)
  • $1.96 / 0.264172 = $7.42 / US gallon

YUM: like Chipotle, McDonald's -- earnings beat; shares up; earnings fueled by strong demand for KFC. Link here. 

CMCSA: beats expectations for revenue, earnings and customers, in 3Q21. Link here.

RDS (Shell): cuts 2021 CAPEX guidance to $20 billion from $22 billion, despite high oil prices. 

Solyndra redux: link here. Good, bad, or indifferent, won't break the bank. Over ten years?

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Crossing The Line

When I visit the twins I stay in the family's guest bedroom. The twins, Levi and Judah, nineteen months old, know that they are not to come into the bedroom under any circumstances. That's their dad's rule. I don't care one way or the other.

This morning, I was curious what they would do if given the opportunity. 

Notice that Levi knows exactly where the line is. He puts his big toe right on the line and points to the line. 

But just before putting his toe on the line, he takes one last look down the hallway toward the bedroom where his dad and mom sleeps, and then a shorter glance toward the living room to make sure the coast is clear. 

He then turns his foot sideways to parallel the line to see if I notice or if the edge is safe enough to bear his weight.

Meanwhile, his brother Judah, in the background, eggs him on.

Finally, he crosses the line, but note the very tiny, cautious baby steps -- he wants to make sure he won't fall off the edge of the earth into the great unknown abyss.

2 comments:

  1. Shell will not be alone in Q3 reporting superlative cash flow. Almost all operators should be in that boat given the relative rapid rise in price opposing the relative lack of increased spending. Price whipsaw fatigue?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Finally getting this posted. Sorry for the delay. Thinks are happening just too fast. And yes, we're going to see incredible cash flow numbers.

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