Notes From All Over -- Tesla's Tipping Point -- One Well Coming Off Confidential List -- October 21, 2021

Jobs: very, very good numbers for the most part says CNBC. Initial claims and continuing claims, a post-Covid low. But still at 290,000 or thereabouts. Yawn. In an hour, the number will be forgotten. 

Oil and natural gas investors: if you are not reading RBN Energy every day ... well, what can I say. That's almost as bad as not reading the MDW blog every day. RBN Energy on cash hoarding by E&Ps below.

Biden approval poll: top CNBC political story by Steve Liesman today -- Resident Biden's approval has plummeted; approval in the red. Worst polling in thirteen years on economy outlook. Steve Liesman is shocked -- again. He is shocked how "negative" Americans are. Some of the worst polling numbers Liesman says he has seen in thirteen years. Noted that gasoline in California is now $5.  Americans are very worried about a recession. What does that mean. If one has discretionary income, it is likely to go into savings, not investing and not spending. Not going into investing: the gap between the investor class and the non-investor class will continue to widen. Not spending: could be a self-fulfilling prophecy for a recession. Those with a long investment horizon, a recession is simply a buying opportunity.

Tipping point: Tesla -- no longer any doubt. It's real. Tesla is so far ahead of any of the others, it has to scare the likes of Ford, GM, European manufacturers, etc. The meme no longer holds: Tesla makes money on the emissions credits. Tesla is now making money ex-credits. But get this: new revenue stream -- Tesla Insurance Company (TIC). The believers will be rewarded.

What about the others? Analyst who probably knows most about this -- Jon McNeill, former Tesla president. At the beginning of a multi-decade growth of EVs: Rivian, F-150 Lightning, Lucid, Cadillac, and several others mentioned.

Triple-digit oil? GasBuddyGuy, Patrick De Haan, thinks it is possible. Agrees with others: OPEC is deliberately holding oil production down -- OPEC controls a third of global production. What if De Haan is wrong? What if OPEC doesn't have the supply? We've posted Saudi's supply graphic and it's not pretty. One may want to follow Josh Young. 

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Let's Go, Bakken

Bakken story of the month: the story is poorly written; I don't understand what happened, or better said, how it happened. The story does not mention the headline. 

Here's the story in a nutshell (I may have it wrong; see linked article):

• oil spill on private land
• private landowner sues oil operator
• suit goes on for many years, in and out court over several years
  
• court dismissed with plaintiff fails to show
• oil spill suit dismissed after discovery that sanctions limited damages to $1

Active rigs:

$82.80	10/21/2021	10/21/2020	10/21/2019	10/21/2018	10/21/2017
Active Rigs	27	14	62	71	54

One well coming off confidential list: Thursday, October 21, 2021: 15 for the month, 15 for the quarter, 239 for the year:

• 37228, conf, Whiting, Sorenson 21-6H, Bully

Initial production for #37228 --

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2021	12580	21155
7-2021	17102	25807
6-2021	18947	36790
5-2021	15850	25009
4-2021	10135	18838

RBN Energy: E&Ps start hoarding cash from rapidly rising inflows. Archived.

For many years, the exploration and production sector of the oil and gas business was notorious for its profligate ways. When energy prices were high and money was flowing in, many E&P companies would spend like Beyoncé. But the commodity price volatility of the past few years gave E&Ps a new-for-them financial discipline. Even when prices rebounded, they held down their capital spending, and focused on paying down debt and returning cash to shareholders in the form of stock buybacks and dividends. But there’s been a shift in all that lately, with a bigger share of the inflowing money now being used to build cash balances. In today’s RBN blog, we analyze recent cash flow allocation by the 38 E&Ps we monitor and examine what this new shift may mean.