Notes From All Over -- The Jobs Edition -- Part 2, 2021

Unemployment rate drops to 4.8%. 

Jobs: jobless report for September, 2021, a debacle. Labor participation rate drops to 61.6%. Largest drop since December, 2020.

The market: "confused." Dow turned negative when the number was released (7:30 a.m. CT; it happened almost immediately; less than five minutes later (7:35 a.m. CT), the Dow (pre-market trading) returned to where it had been. Now about ten minutes later 7:50 a.m. CT), the Dow has turned negative again. 

Jim Cramer's take:

• Jay Powell: right again! 
• no need to ridicule this man;
  
• the Fed -- Jay Powell -- gets some breathing room;
• Jay Powell can now say "I told you so"; remember, Powell's number one concern has been people -- getting people back to work, and helping them until things return to normal
• the number was good for Jay Powell;
• Jay Powell: will stay the course;
• corporations unable to bring workers back to work;
• teachers afraid to go into schools;
• Cramer has flipped a bit: now feels things are not getting better; seems disappointed; not his usual joyful self;
• boomers have said "enough is enough"; boomers have savings; no reason to go back to work;
• if one is 63 years old, is it worth exposing yourself to a classroom full of kids, vaccinated or not?
• ENDS THIS ARGUMENT: ending additional unemployment benefits would bring more folks back into the job force. Didn't happen. 
  

Others:

• unemployment rate is now where the Fed predicted it would be by the end of the year, but ...
• the numbers were so bad, the Fed may have to slow down a bit on tapering;
• how long will the labor situation last? will last different lengths in different sectors
• leisure and hospitality: even if it remains at a "good pace," the job shortage in lesiure and hospitality will last eight to ten more months -- that takes us through all of 2022 travel season;
• where have all the workers gone?
• retirements accelerated
• child care issues
• "deep resignation"
• not mentioned:
• mismatch in skills 
• the November, 2021, Fed meeting was predicted to be a yawner; now? all of a sudden, the November, 2021, Fed meeting may be very, very interesting