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Wednesday, October 13, 2021

Notes From All Over -- The Global Oil Inventory Edition -- October 13, 2021

Jim Cramer's chartist: crude oil has peaked this week. Currently, WTI trading at $79.70, about a dollar lower than yesterday. 

Global crude oil supplies, OECD:

  • down by almost 20 million bbls month/month
  • inventory at 2.88 billion bbls
  • 363 million bbls lower than same time one year ago
  • 183 million bbls lower than latest five-year average

EIA short-term energy outlook, link here:

  • globally, 98.4 million bopd consumed in August, 2021
  • = 4.0 million bopd less than August, 2019 (good comparison, finally)
  • forecast:
    • petroleum / liquid fuels will average 97.4 million bopd for all of 2021;
    • = 5.0 million bopd increase from 2020
    • and, by an additional 3.6 million bopd in 2022 to average 101.0 million bopd, almost even with 2019 levels

China coal, from a Chinese state planner --

  • "We will compel closed coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia to repair and restart operations as quickly as possible.

Russian gas, from Putin --

  • "We will deliver all the natural gas Europe needs."
  • So far? Lowest since September, 2016.

AAPL: drops below $140-support level. 

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Flathead Lake, Montana


2 comments:

  1. Maybe oil has peaked this week, I'm still an oil bull. I think with the electricy shortages partly due to electric cars charging overnight depleting the fuel storage at power plants.

    Oil companies have been thrown under the bus between COVID demand drop, mutual funds and banks jumping on the CO2 reduction bandwagon by not buying stock and loaning money, and many pipelines being canceled. Rig count has been down, depletion of existing wells has not stopped. Note that overall inventory in USA as per EIA was about the same week over week, net imports were 18.5 million barrels.

    As always my opinion.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I also remain very bullish in oil.

      If the sweet spot is $55 - $60 (good for both operators and consumers), operators are in a good spot with $80-oil.

      The pundits all suggest American consumers will have no problem with $80 oil and if accurate, the new sweet spot would be $70 to $80, maybe $75 to $85.

      Delete

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