Notes From All Over -- Anticipation -- October 27, 2021

Wage inflation: a reader tells me that due to Covid, it's a double whammy for liquor stores. Employees not showing up for work and when they do, hard to come up with cash to pay wages the staff demands. So instead of paying the staff time and a half, liquor store employees are now being paid time and a fifth. Ba-bing.

I Can Boogie, Baccara

Cash flow: It's a fool's errand to try to predict the price of oil but I think it's safe to assume that the next four quarters, to include 3Q21, are going to be huge quarters for oil companies who are unhedged, Link here.

Halloween: every October 31st it's the same ol' thing, a reader reminded me. Mutual funds are closing out their books for the year to give them time to prepare their annual reports. The market could look messy with more volatility than usual. If skittish, simply ignore the market for the next week or so to let the dust settle. 

Supply chain issues: be prepared for this. It won't work for seasonal items like clothes, but it's very possible consumer durable goods could become surprisingly inexpensive and available by this time next year, if not a whole lot sooner. There are more and more stories suggesting that a flood of products could start showing up all at once. Anecdote: some merchants are "over-ordering" items assuming half of what they order will be significantly delayed. If even some of that "over-ordered" stuff starts arriving earlier than expected ... pendulums swing ... this year has been atrocious for those wanting to buy a car ... next year, maybe the other way around ... although with pent-up demand, it could be a wash. 

Ford: I'm still blown away by Ford's 3Q21 after all the supply chain issues. Imagine what Ford could do when things get back to "normal."

Holiday flying: I certainly would not want to be flying around the holidays this year. Way too many uncertainties. I was surprised how busy American Airlines, DFW, Texas, was on a Tuesday, mid-day flight, in late October.

Suncor: still blows me away. To the following add this link.

Suncor: "crushes" it. Link here. And, here. And, here. Reuters:

• Suncor is Canada's number 2 oil and gas producer
• doubles dividend; dividend now at pre-pandemic levels;
• oil price surge powers profit
• net profit: $710 million
• 47 (US) cents
• produced 698,600 boepd (compare with 331,000 boepd for CLR)

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A Classical Musical Interlude

The Beatles, The Royal Symphony Orchestra