Let's See What Sticks -- October 26, 2021

The two biggest investing mistakes I've made in the past few years:

• listening to Jamie Dimon opine on Bitcoin; and,
• listening to the Montana Skeptic re: Tesla.

Is anyone paying attention? Source.

The twitter links and source articles from those links.

Coal:

• Arch: last dividend was paid 3/13/20 = 50 cents. Now announces a 25-cent dividend payable 12/15/21; record date, 11/30/21. Link and link.
  

Inflation:

• countries where central banks have raised rates: highest inflation rates.
  
• US: nowhere near raising rates
• Spain: 23% increase in producer prices "overnight"; Europe's inflation pressures are formidable and show no sign of abating; they remember Germany's hyperinflation; source.
  

Janet Yellen:

• will impose taxes on coins earned by Mario. Source.
  
• "won't be a coin tax, but rather a tax on those little gold things that Mario jumps for"

Elon Musk:

• really, really rich
• now worth more than XOM;
  

Tesla:

• really, really ... amazing
• "everyone" says they missed but still won't buy;
  
• market value exceeds the entire global auto industry PLUS Uber, Lyft, Progressive, Geico (if public), Allstate, Duke Energy and Dominion energy
• shares, TSLA:
  
• traded at $900 yesterday
• today trading at $1,000
• target: $1200
  
• Hertz deal: analyst has it all wrong; using "old textbook" to analyze deal; 
• TSLA trades above $1,000: announces cure for cancer and HIV at the same time from its auto driving system. Source.
  

US equity markets:

• futures suggest another good day for those "long" and fully invested
• Big Oil about to post highest cash flow in 13+ years; source.
  

Rally on:

• US natural gas prices extend rally; back above $6 / MMbtu; highest level in three weeks;
• US natural gas prices: a hair away from a 13-year high; source.
• "a hair"? how many transistors could Apple fit on the width of a human hair?

Medicare and "open season":

• does anyone really understand any of this

Obamacare and "open season":

• no one understands this

US oil in storage:

• whatever is reported today / tomorrow, 1.1 million of those bbls came directly from the SPR. Source.

Hedging:

• oil companies who hedged were "clever by half"; will take huge losses;  
• a lot of bean counters behind closed doors need to be fired;
• a lot of risk averse CEOs need to be fired;
  
• CLR schools PXD
• PXD: huge loss -- mostly due to hedging; bit off more than it could chew?
• $501 million hedging loss. Also, here over at Hart Energy;
  

Permian:

• small, private operators take center stage; source.

EVs:

• winner: Ford
• if I were to invest in EVs, my first choice? Ford
• I wasn't alive then, but when the Model A and Model T were released, other than Ford was there any other competitor to Ford; is Tesla in the same spot as Ford when it was releasing the Model A and Model T? I don't know. Asking for 9,465 readers.
  

Natural gas:

• it's just beginning;
• benchmark Henry Hub prices are up 15% in the last two days; not even winter yet;
• back above $6 / MMbtu; source. 
• Javier Blas swims upstream: prefers mBTU rather than MMbtu -- used to confuse me; no more;
  
• let's go Brandon

Blue hydrogen:

• Saudi to use $110 gas field for blue hydrogen. Also, here, at a more trusted source: Yahoo!Finance. 
• reader says Saudi gas not "true blue." It will be the same as "Dakota Gas" after Mitsubishi conversion. And that reader knows what he's talking about. Trust me.
  

Unions:

• Teamsters kicked out of XTO Logistics facility in California; breaking point?
• Let's go, Brandon

Recession:

• yeah, likely, but different this time

Coal:

• China and Australia talking

Cotton:

• China importing US cotton
• US cotton + shipping < cost of producing cotton in own country (China)
• think about it: all those container ships sailing back empty to China

Bitcoin:

• "everyone" says they missed it but still won't buy;

Saudi Arabia:

• if one doesn't consider the very likely possibility that KSA has no swing capacity, is not reading the tea leaves;
  
• more and more hints from Saudi Arabia they are at their max when it comes to crude oil, at least in short term;
• people's exhibit #1; 
• people's exhibit #2; if Bloomberg reports it, it must be true;
• people's exhibit #3: Saudi-Kuwait Neutral Zone facing technical issues; maximum output still far off. Source. An amazing story. Full story at Platts.
  
• huge demand for fresh water
• needs fresh water to frack -- they wouldn't be going their route if they didn't have to
• Red Sea drilling
• pivots to natural gas

XOM, source, 2020:

• headcount: 72,000
• look at this: average length of service -- 30 years
• estimated workforce savings: $1 billion to $2 billion per year
• "strange way to make money"
  

Green salad choice?

• green cabbage beats iceberg lettuce; no contest;

North By Northwest:

• would the ending have been different had this been Mount Rushmore? Asking for Cary Grant, Eva Marie Saint. and Leo G. Carroll.