NASCAR today: 2:00 CT, Kansas. Second of three, group of eight. Standings here.
Holiday spending:
- first report: $1,000 / person spending this holiday season; "every" media source predicts huge spending season"; link here;
- Adobe forecasts record online holiday spending;
- emarketer, forecast:
- total US retail sales will rise 9.0% to $1.147 trillion
- brick-and-mortar retail: will surge 7.9% to $935.79 billion
- US retail commerce sales will climb a whopping 14.4% to $211.66 billion
- e-commerce to account for 18.4% of total retail sales
- forecast factors in ongoing strength (see my favorite graph below):
- ongoing strength in the consumer economy despite resurgence of Covid-19 (delta variant)
- low unemployment
- rising wages
- booming stock market
- government stimulus
- Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Cyber Monday? see link
- retailers' biggest winners:
- Amazon
- Walmart
- Target
- Best Buy
Amazon:
- high gasoline prices won't affect overall spending
- having said that, Amazon will benefit if high gasoline prices impact spending at all
- three large mailings = Amazon Prime membership
- USPS large flat box: $22.65; I believe USPS is less expensive than UPS and much, much less expensive than FedEx
- USPS: three days shipping and recently announced that agency purposely extending delivery times to save money
- Amazon: one-day delivery is the norm; same day common;
- Amazon Prime: Prime Video; Amazon music;
Mastercard: sees holiday spending reaching record on 7.4% growth; link here;
Anecdote:
- my wife was looking for a specific $2-item at brick-and-mortar; unable to find it at three different stores
- went on Amazon; found product for $20; aghast until she read the small print: box of ten
- my wife, who was only going to spend $2 for a single item, went ahead and bought the 10-pack
- why does Amazon (generally) not run out of stuff?
- on the flip side -- do folks now understand why there are shortages? Anecdote: my wife just took ten items off the shelf when all she was looking for was one -- and this is happening hundreds of thousands of times per day around the country.
- we used to buy "just in time"; now, we buy "just in case."
Anecdote:
- my wife went with her friend yesterday; early Christmas and Hanukkah shopping
- listening to all the reports that there will be a shortage "of things" by end of November
- retailers doing a great job to get folks out early
Tea leaves:
- we're going to see huge retail sales well before Thanksgiving this year
- as we near Thanksgiving the stories on evening news will accelerate, scaring people into buying early to avoid shortages
My favorite graph: pending.
Target closes San Fransisco [central business district I thinky] do to five finger discounting. They stated they were losing $25,ooo per day to "undocumented purchases"
ReplyDeleteThe large retailers are now leasing vessels and going through the Noriega Canal. Shipping time almost double to 28 days.
I found very little difference in shipping rates between the big three [when I am the shipper]. I primarily use Fedex, as they provide the best in counter customer service. The worst is USPO, with long lines and all to often crabby staff, immunized to humor and penicillin.
There are now folks buying retail and selling on Fleabay, for three or four x.
Varies AGs throughout the land are now licking their chops and sharping their knives.
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Target is entering the car rental sector next year with Carget.
I delayed posting this comment, wanting to think about it before posting it. Turns out to be a very, very interesting comment.
DeleteThank you for taking time to write. Very, very interesting.