The September Swoon -- September 22, 2021

The Fed, first out of the chute:

• I don't think I've heard more transparency from a politician
  
• even after such a plain-spoken speech, reporters still asked questions that were answered in the prepared remarks
• most disappointing: some questions were asked three times
• Steve Liesman actually said the question he asked was asked three times
  
• immediately after the remarks and Q&A, CNBC seemed to try to make Powell seem more bearish than he might have been
  
• analysts say they need to read the transcript
• consensus:
• Fed will announce beginning of taper next month (November, 2021)
• it will take a "good" jobs report to make that announcement
• the bar is low for a "good" jobs report
  
• begin taper the following month (December, 2021)
• complete taper by June, 2022; this simply means ending buying -- at least that's how I heard it -- doesn't mean start selling -- but then I may have misunderstood this
• raising rates: won't begin until taper ends
• first rate hike: no earlier than 3Q21 and we're only talking a quarter of a percent
• reappointment of Jay Powell; of course, it was never discussed, but allowing Fed members to buy shares in same companies that the Fed was buying is a huge weapon for those who want Powell removed
• what did "the market" think? LOL. The market loved it. One could literally watch the Dow move up during he prepared remarks
• if the market drops before the market closes: profit taking
  

For the archives:

• Dow up: 385 points; had been as much as 500 points up
• S&P 500: up 50 points
• NASDAQ: up 122 points

Can't wait to listen to Jim Cramer later this afternoon.