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Friday, September 3, 2021

Notes From All Over -- Part 1 -- September 3, 2021

AAPL: will delay scanning iPhone photographs regarding child sexual abuse. AAPL unchanged after report.

Unemployment rate: dropped from 5.4% to 5.2%. Covid-19:

  • people would rather be broke, homeless and starving than be dead

What does the jobs report really mean today: the $3.5 trillion infrastructure bill one step closer to enactment.

Top stories today:

  • LNG exports
  • high cost of energy in Asia, Europe
    • chart of the day: the natural gas crunch in Europe is worsening; a cold winter could be disastrous;
    • developing countries in Asia under pressure to ditch coal; are not paying equivalent of $115 / boe for natural gas; link here
  • natural gas prices are soaring despite US production records; link here;
  • the new geopolitical conflict in the Arctic; link here;
  • Permian oil production set to hit 18-month high in September (advertisement); link here;
  • auto manufacturers continue to shut down production; chip shortage
  • hospitals in some localities swamped with patients; link here.
    • Alaska Airlines will not mandate their employees be vaccinated
  • US equity markets continue to hit all-time records
  • deaths from Covid-19 in current wave (fourth wave) is exceeding first wave a year ago
    • Sweden bans travelers from Israel; the most vaccinated country in the world, Israel, is undergoing a fourth wave surge so bad, the Swedes won't allow Israelis to visit Sweden; link here.

Keystone XL:

  • SPR special release of 1.5 million bbls for XOM Baton Rouge makes perfect sense; but for context, we usually trade that much  oil in thirty seconds at the close; link here;
  • US demand: 20 million bopd or 600 million bbls/month; special release of 1.5 million bbls = 0.0025 or 0.25% of the monthly demand; reminder: implied crude oil in the US is now trending toward 23 million bopd
  • oil from SPR will be needed; hope it's the right type. Lots of issues with Mars blend now; Pemex production is down. Wouldn't it really be nice to have more capacity on a directly pipeline from Canada for WCS to the Gulf right now. Link here.
  • Centrica warns natural gas prices in the UK and continental Europe could spiral higher from already record levels this winter, with consumers effectively in a bidding war with Asia for limited supplies; could get so bad some industries may need to shut down; link here.

Other news:

  • Walmart raises minimum wage to $12 / hour -- link to WSJ;

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