Morning Report -- Thursday -- September 9, 2021

Worst prediction: once delta variant becomes a non-story, things will be back to normal. Not! This is a huge story for the airlines. Those who have invested in airlines with that expectation misunderstood human behavior. Elevator speech: people like to work from home; business people get tired of traveling day in, day out; Zoom meetings are much more productive. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Apple, Inc: before we get started -- Apple's entry-level iPad stocks are running low at retail stores and online, indicating an update to Apple's most profitable iPad would be in the offing and may even arrive as soon as this month. Link here. 

GameStop? Or as some might say, "stop loss." Down 10% in pre-market trading. Yesterday's "conference call"? A one-pay handout and no questions. Let's see, why did Biden just flash across my mind?

First things first, today:

• tonight, Dallas visits Tom Brady
• EIA's weekly petroleum report to be released later this morning
• take Olivia to school

Top story: yes, again, the high energy prices in the UK and Europe. Link here. This is not good ... for the Brits.

California: warns of strain on energy grid as heatwave nears.  

Again, it would have been nice to have the Keystone XL: Louisiana refineries have seemed to restore operations more quickly than offshore production ops. Refiners need more heavy oil. Link here.

Venezuela: oil industry hits rock bottom. China sees opportunity. Yawn.

Good for them! NBC fetches $6.5 million for Super Bowl ads, nearly sells out Beijing Winter Olympics spots. Link here: https://www.foxbusiness.com/sports/nbc-fetches-6-5m-for-super-bowl-ads-nearly-sells-out-beijing-olympics-spots.

Beer (SAM): it just keeps getting worse. I'll have to take another look later. Don't understand it. 

GeoSouthern (Haynesville) exploring $2 billion sale. Link here.

• formally called GEP Haynesville LLC: joint venture between a company founded by billionaire oil man George Bishop and Blackstone's credit arm
• this venture acquired land in the Louisiana portion of the Haynesville basin from Encana Corp -- now known as Ovintive Inc -- for about $850 million in 2015
• would be the latest shale gas deal in the Haynesville basin following Southwestern Energy Co's $2.7 billion acquisition of Indigo Natural Resources and Chesapeake Energy Cor's proposed buy of Vine Energy Inc earlier this year
• US natural gas futures jumped to their highest level since February, 2014, yesterday, Wednesday, September 9, 2021, extending gains to more than 90% since the start of the year. Is anyone paying attention?

Devon: I'm sure I posted this before, but if so, I had forgotten. Oh, yes, here it is. This was one of my better posts. I assume it was circulated around Wall Street some weeks ago. LOL. Sure. Anyway, I had forgotten:

Devon's dividend history is at this link. Note that this is the total dividend, not just the "fixed dividend."

• 2018: 8 cents each quarter
  
• 2019: 9 cents each quarter
  
• 2020: 11 cents in each of four quarters, but a "variable" dividend of 26 cents in August, 2020.
• 2021: this really gets interesting
• 4Q20: 11 cents
• 1Q21: 30 cents (almost triples)
• May, 2021: a "variable" dividend of 34 cents (13% more than the quarterly dividend, and this was an additional dividend on top of the quarterly dividends)
• 2Q21: 34 cents (13% increase over the first quarter dividend; identical to the special dividend paid a month earlier) 

• 3Q21: a whopping 49 cents (fixed plus variable) -- that's a 44% improvement over the previous quarter

Devon dividend, link here:

• record date: 9/13/21
• payment date: 9/30/21

• 3Q21: a whopping 49 cents (fixed plus variable) -- that's a 44% improvement over the previous quarter

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Covid-19 vaccine update, Wednesday, September 8, 2021:

• doses delivered to health agencies: 450,584,465
• doses administered to primates: 376,955,132
• at least one dose: 208,024,209
• fully vaccinated (well, sort of): 177,104,652

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs*, update COB non-holiday weekdays:

$69.27	9/9/2021	09/09/2020	09/09/2019	09/09/2018	09/09/2017
Active Rigs	25*	11	62	66	55

No wells coming off confidential list according ot NDIC. Stay tuned.

RBN Energy: tight balance supercharge gas market, propel prices over $5/MMBtu.

The natural gas futures contract for the prompt month barreled a net ~$1.00 (26%) higher in the past 12 days as the potential for prolonged production shut-ins in the Gulf of Mexico after Hurricane Ida amplified already-heightened supply fears in both the U.S. and international gas markets. The blistering price action sent the CME/NYMEX Henry Hub October futures contract soaring on Wednesday to an intraday high above $5/MMBtu and as settle of $4.914/MMBtu, the highest during September trading since 2008, while the prompt December and January contracts settled above $5/MMBtu for the first time in years. 

Prices at European and Asian gas/LNG hubs have similarly rallied this summer to multi-year or even all-time highs. Offshore Gulf gas production has since begun to recover, slowly, after the Ida-damaged Port Fourchon in Louisiana, the base of offshore oil and gas operations, reopened over the Labor Day weekend, but the bulk of it remains offline as power outages and other operational challenges persist. The shut-ins are exacerbating an already tight market, marked by record LNG exports, lackadaisical production growth, and a growing inventory deficit compared with year-ago and five-year average levels. Those underlying fundamentals will remain a trigger point for price spikes well after Ida-related shut-ins recover. Today, we discuss where the gas market stands heading into the final months of the injection season and the implications for winter gas pricing.