Notes From All Over -- The Market Issue --July 9, 2021

Trading: two days ago, yes, the day before the market plummeted, I did so much trading on my Schwab account, I got a boiler-plate reminder from Schwab reminding me what their trading rules were. Schwab said they were monitoring my account but that they were taking no action to stop any trading. Interesting. I have no idea what that was all about but it certainly my attention. 

And then the market plummeted yesterday. Perfect timing. Has never happened before (to that extent) and unlikely to ever happen again.

1.6%. A month ago the CNBC talking heads were all concerned about the ten-year Treasury moving north of 1.6% and fears of inflation. Now, "experts" are saying yesterday's nosedive in the market was due to the ten-year Treasury falling below 1.3%. So, there you have it: we will have a perfect market if the ten-year Treasury stays between 1.299% and 1.699%. But outside those parameters and we're all doomed.

Doomed. Speaking of doom, I didn't tune in to CNBC at all yesterday. I never want to watch CNBC when the market is falling. They seem to do everything to try to make it sound worse than it really is. Yesterday, pre-market (and maybe early trading) the Dow was down over 500 points. Let's see 550 / 24,500 = 2.2%. By the end of the day, the market was down by less than one percent. But wow, all the articles posted yesterday about what this means -- the huge fall -- that we're all doomed. 

AAPL: I only checked in on two tickers yesterday and today. One of them as AAPL. Two days ago, AAPL hit an all-time high. Yesterday, in an omen that we are all doomed and the market will continue its fall, was down one or two percent. I forget. Today, I see AAPL is back up to another all-time high. Yes, we are all doomed.

Nonsense. This is an example of what I'm talking about -- we're all doomed. Link to Yahoo!Finance's anchor, editor-at-large, Brian Sozzi. What a bunch of nonsense.  

 It's far from a market in turmoil, but a day after stocks touched record highs it is a market getting drilled with some valid fears. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tanked nearly 500 points in early afternoon trading Thursday as investors showed concern that the plunge in the 10-year Treasury yield was signaling an economic growth slowdown later this year. Driving that potentially dreaded macroeconomic slowdown would be two factors, traders reasoned. First, the Delta variant of COVID-19 that is sweeping across the world. And two, the Federal Reserve moving to taper its bond purchases before year end. Hence, the newly expressed concerns by traders on the ever-expanding valuations in many areas of the equities market today. 

So, there you have it. In three short paragraphs: we're all doomed and it's all because of the ten-year Treasury.

Let's see. What is the ten-year Treasury doing today? OMG, it's up 0.061, with a yield of 1.349%. That explains why the market is surging today. The ten-year Treasury is midway between 1.299% and 1.699%, and it reversed yesterday's trend on top of that.