Notes From All Over -- The Exuberant Edition -- July 13, 2021

Updates

CPI:

• up 0.9% vs 0.5% expected;
• pre-market trading immediately reverses
• AAPL: pre-market looked to have a good day; after CPI released, AAPL turns negative in pre-market trading
• EOG: stays green, but drops a bit after CPI released;
  
• Dow trending toward green immediately fell to -78 in pre-market trading
• S&P: barely green went to -10 after numbers released
• NASDAQ: definitely green pre-market; after CPI released, NASDAQ goes negative to -40
• Steve Liesman
• raises pressure on the Fed to react sooner than later, but nothing right away
• used cars: #1 on the list; up 10% on the month
• would love to hear some analysis of the used-car phenomenon
• my hunch: the reasons might surprise us
  

Original Post

Elon Musk schools Algore: from twitter, on Elon Musk, link here.

Market:all major indices hit new records yesterday

• two of thee will hit new records today
• possible that the Dow will also hit new records today

CNBC: best states for business: link here.

• 5: Tennessee; cracks top 5 for first time
• 4: Texas: lowest ranking since CNBC study began;
• 3: Utah: 
• 2: North Carolina: strongest finish in history of study; AAPL -- new campus
• 1: Virginia -- CNBCs first back-to-back winner. Life, health, and inclusion.
  

Most ignored story on twitter: Saudi Arabia foreign exchange reserves;

Ft Worth: the garden spot in Texas! -- WAR52 over at twitter.

Tuesday, July 13, 2021: mark this day on your calendar. For investors, it's gonna be a huge day. 

AAPL: up slightly in pre-market trading.

Oil: up slightly in pre-market trading.

Inflation: 

• ZeroHedge

 

• historical:

• investors, BofA July Fund Manager Survey:
• only 22% of investors see higher inflation in the next twelve months;
  70% say it is temporary
• nearly 73% of investors say economy in mid- or late-cycle; up 9% from June   
• what's going on in Cuba? 
• the underlying trigger for riots / protests in South Africa and Cuba is likely the development in food pricesfood prices are now up 40% on the year (as in 2011 before the Arab Spring)
  

Oil:

• more and more indications global demand will exceed supply
• in its monthly report, IEA warned that unless OPEC+ reaches a deal (and soon), 3Q21 could see the largest crude oil stock draw "in at least a decade."  Oil markets will tighten significantly.
• Giovanni: following two consecutive months of decline, global oil demand surged by an estimated 3.2 mb/d to 96.8 mb/d in June;
• Javier Blas: "strikingly, OPEC+ flagged that Russia 'has never pumped anywhere close" to its OPEC+ baseline of 11 million b/d;

Earnings, 2Q21:

• Conagra Brands: raises dividend to 31.25 cents; record date, 8/3/21; was 27.5 cents; strong 4Q21 and full-year results; as recently as August, 2020, the dividend was 21.3 cents; between August, 2020, and August, 2021, CAG has increased its dividend 46 percent;
  
• Pepsi: blows past estimates, Brian Sozzi, anchor editor-at-large;
• JPM: down $1.60 in pre-market trading;
• earnings top estimates
• posts $2.3 billion benefit from releasing $3 billion in loan loss reserves after taking $734 million in charge-offs; 
• whisper numbers killing share price
  
• GS, huge beat;
• earnings: $15.02 vs $10.24 expected; link here;
• revenue: $15.39 billion vs $12.17 billion expected;
• whisper numbers killing share price

Defund the police:

• like global warming, does anyone really care?
• Chicago gangsters outnumber cops 10 to 1 as spike in crime reaches fever pitch;
• three top issues that get a lot of attention, but no one in DC is truly concerned
  
• murder, crime; defunding the police;
  
• unemployment
• global warming: 1994 -- first major warnings came out; 2021 -- business as usual; in fact, business is much better than usual
  

Fun with statistics:

• Guillain-Barré vs gun violence in Chicago
  
• JNJ vaccine: Guillain-Barré: 100 people out of 12.8 million  = 0.0000078 = 0.00078%
• people shot in Chicago over weekend: 100 / 2.7 million = 0.000037 = 0.0037%
• 0.0037 / 0.00078 = 5x -- five times as many folks shot with guns in Chicago over the weekend compared with number of GB possibly associated with JNJ vaccine. "all" of whom who will recover; which cannot be said about the 20+ that dies from gunshot wounds over the weekend
• which will get more coverage today?
  

Vaccine:

• Delta variant deaths,
• 0.5% were vaccinated
• 95.5% were unvaccinated

Global warming:

• EV mandates: the easy part;
• now the hard part; Europe pushes back;
• China: June coal imports soar to highest so far in 2021;

AAPL:

• incredibly bad headline; great story; disappointed in Zacks;
• Apple's win in Blix case comes weeks before Epic decision; link here;
• why AAPL is a great momentum stock to buy; talking heads on FastMoney last night suggested the same;
• re-posting: Apple in early talks for streaming rights of NFL SNF; 

Saudi Arabia: drops Morgan Stanely on gas pipelines deal; hires JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs; link here.

Cuba: the western hemisphere country that was most hurt by the UN over the past fifty years --