Covid-19 -- Ramblings -- Not Ready For Prime Time -- July 22, 2021

Louisiana today and Covid-19:

Running through the headlines; listening to interviews on CNBC; looking at the equity markets, some random thoughts, not ready for prime time.

First, it will be interesting how the vaccine story changes when the vaccines are fully approved. I assume the delay in getting full approval for these vaccines is due to two things (bureaucracy and really, really tough issues):

• bureaucracy and the way things have always been done;
• the tough issues, the major points of contention:
• full approval for all US-made vaccines, or just one or two of them (Moderna, Pfizer, JNJ);
• required Black Box warnings?
• required non-Black Box warnings?
• approved for what ages?
• approved for pregnant women?
• "woke" ssues?
  

Second, one wonders if this were "smallpox," and we brought back the "smallpox vaccine" which was so much worse on so many levels, would folks resist the "smallpox vaccine" to the same extent?

• if one's answer is no: they would not resist -- it suggests to me that folks are really not concerned about being infected with Covid-19; that is corroborated by stories coming out of Louisiana; counter-intuitive, I know;
  
• if one's answer is yes, they would still resists -- it simply suggests Americans trust in government has changed significantly between 1951 and 2021

Which leads to a third question: when/why did trust in the US federal government change? Thoughts?

• it never changed; it's always been there; perhaps just not as visible;
• how can one even ask when / why trust in the US federal government change?
• there were concerns even during the Revolutionary War and while the US Constitution was being written about a federal government;
  
• for heaven's sake, wasn't that what the US Civil War was all about? trust, no trust in the federal government in Washington, DC?
• Vietnam War?
• Jimmy "wear a cardigan sweater" Carter?
• the Clintons? 

Politics: will any of the US Covid-19 vaccines be approved before the mid-term elections? I bet Schumer / Pelosi are in close contact with FDA on this one as they watch the polls.

Center of gravity: every two to four weeks there seems to be a "center of gravitas" with regard to the Covid-19 pandemic in the US. A few weeks ago it was Arkansas, and although it's no longer a front page story, Arkansas is still experiencing a surge. But this week, the new "center of gravitas" seems to be Louisiana. Of all the big pandemic stories in the past two months, Louisiana seems to be the most interesting. This state seems to be a great social experiment. Things are getting so bad with regard to Covid-19 in Louisiana that it becomes fascinating to watch to see if vaccinations pick up in that state.

If not, if vaccinations do not pick up in Louisiana, it speaks volumes about how deep the lack of trust runs with regard to the federal government. Sort of makes me think of the US Civil War and the reasons that led up to that war.

If not, if vaccinations do not pick up in Louisiana, it will be incredibly interesting to see how the state fares. The original reason for the US lockdown in 2020 was to "flatten the curve," to prevent the US health sector from becoming overwhelmed. Of course, that reason ("to flatten the curve") was quickly forgotten when New York state re-wrote the narrative and the mainstream media started reporting body counts with an obvious political agenda. But I digress. 

To repeat, if the vaccinations do not pick up in Louisiana, it will be incredibly interesting to see how the state fares. Some people suggest the delta variant is highly contagious but fairly innocuous as a disease. Some suggest that this is a sign of a virus "burning itself out." I'm not sure if that's accurate, but who's to say that as the virus becomes more and more contagious but yet less and less lethal, is it nothing more than the common cold? If so, can we now say, finally, after fifty years of looking for a "cold" vaccine we finally have not one, but at least three in the US: Moderna, Pfizer, and JNJ. And, if so, will people really want to get a vaccine for the "common cold"?  By the way, just as a reminder, the "common cold" is caused by the same family of viruses that is responsible for the current pandemic. I could be wrong on this one, fact-check please.

Turning that observation around, it now appears, there will never be any more successful vaccines except against really, really terrible diseases. It raises the question whether pharmaceutical companies should even bother with vaccination research any more. 

Is there even any reason for HIV vaccine research to continue? Who in their right mind would take such a vaccine in this environment. It's important to remember why the "woke" crowd resists the Covid-19 vaccines.