Renewable Energy -- Is The Fad Over In Germany? June 26, 2021

Updates

Later, from another reader who follows this very, very closely: 

It is not only Europe, but worldwide, as well. 

The massive Sergipe CCGT plant in Brazil will be dwarfed by the GNA operation outside of Rio when it becomes operational. 

Vietnam is in the process of building new CCGT capacity comparable to what New England consumes - in total - on a daily basis. 

Both the Amazon basin and southern Brazil are on track for new plants.

Just as your reader noted that Germany's CCGT  buildout will happen due to new Nordstream supplies, the above mentioned projects will derive their natgas fuel in the form of LNG. 

Indeed, the eye glazing speed in the advances of LNG innovations is one of the unheralded stories of recent years.

From tiny southern Baha, to far flung islands in the Philippines archipelago, to the mountainous hinterlands of Argentina, to remote Fairbanks, the widespread adoption of natgas continues to grow with relentless drive. 

Ten years out, people will be astonished to have recognized just how profound a shift will have taken place.

Original Post

From Zeit online, "Clean Energy Wire":

In its last session before the summer recess, the German parliament passed a bill that amends the federal Climate Action Law. The new law brings forward the deadline for achieving climate neutrality by five years to 2045 and tightens the interim target for greenhouse gas emission reduction from 55 to 65 percent by 2030 compared to 1990. For 2040, a new interim target of 88 percent reduction applies. ....yakety, yake, blah blah.....

From the reader who sent the above note:

As for renewable energy, the government has not been able to agree on higher expansion targets for the next years.

Note: without saying it, they will reduce greenhouse gases with CCGT's from the new Nord Stream II gas line from Russia, not wind.

They installed more wind in 2017, then 2018, 19, 20, 21 combined. Rural Germany hates wind. Protesting in the streets and the courts.

More from the reader:

Renewables account for about 70% of the total 37.9 gigawatts (GW) of new generating capacity under construction in 2021.

CF wind 35%, solar 25%, say 30%, 38 GW *0.70 market share =26.6 gw*0.30= RE 8 GW net conventional 85%CF 38*0.3=11.4GW*0.85 CF= 9.8 GW net This is about the same as the rest of the world, little more CCGT than RE.

Don't make the MSM mistake!

My recent note regarding Germany didn't include any numbers for RE in their new energy bill? For two years I've been saying Germany will be going long on CCGT and short on RE beginning in 2023. They're taking down their 20 year old small units faster than they're replacing with new larger ones. They won't admit it, but RE in Germany has peaked.

In the meantime Germany built so much wind and solar that they over saturated their neighbors grids, with RE so there isn't room for anymore. Now Germany can buy natural gas from Russia via Nord Stream II and sell it to their neighbors who essentially haven't done anything about adding grid capacity for decades (Spain dabbled a little).

CCGT is the EU future not RE.