Notes From All Over -- Mid-Day Edition, Part 1 -- Bloomsday -- June 16, 2021

Didn't go well: Putin-Biden meeting was shorter than the White House expected (or at least announced). No chemistry. Biden will, of course, put positive spin on this. Prepared statement. The big question: will President Biden take questions, and if he does, how many? Press conference has just begun (12:25 p.m. CT; it must be about 7:25 p.m. local time -- Geneva time).

• I was wrong. the meeting went long, just shorter than the White House scheduled. Yawn. Media trying to make its own story;
• Biden did very, very, very well, in the post-"summit" press conference
  
• I quit listening to presidential speeches and press conferences after Ronald Reagan, but started again with Biden;
• I am pleasantly surprised; one may disagree with Biden's policies, but he held his own with the press very, very well;
• he showed his feisty nature without going ballistic at the end of the press conference;
• if folks can read between the lines, one now knows how the US will respond to ransomware attacks in the future

Ten-year Treasury: 1.485%. Prior to the Fed's Jay Powell's press conference 48 minutes from now.

Shell: Chevron, ConocoPhillips -- among most likely candidates. Link here.

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Oil:

• WTI: up slightly; trading at $72.20
• obviously analysts' forecast in line with actual data (see below)
  
• Brent: about a $2 premium to WTI; trading at $74.39

Weekly EIA petroleum report, link here.

• US crude oil in storage decreased by a whopping 7.4 million bbls;
• US crude oil in storage now stands at 466.7 million bbls; 5% below the fat-five-year average;
• US refiners operating at 92.6% of their operable capacity;
• US gasoline production increased last week, averaging just under 10 million bpd (9.9)
• distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.0 million bbls; inventories now 6% below five-year average;
• US crude oil imports, at 6.3 million bpd, are about 6% below last year's numbers
• jet fuel product was up 87% compared with same period one year ago

US crude oil production:

• North Dakota likely to drop to #3 among the lower 48;
• New Mexico likely to move up to #2;
• both states running neck-and-neck;
• North Dakota "doing it" with 16 rigs vs 72 rigs for New Mexico

The big story: Alaska. The "Alaska" story has been THE upstream North American story since January 20, 2021; derivative story lines:

• Canada -- competes directly with Alaska;
• Saudi Arabia -- some overlap with Alaska;
• Latin America -- no overlap with Alaska
• those suggesting Biden's ban on drilling in "the refuge" was a huge story are either not following the story; misunderstanding the story; or, have an agenda (talking their own book)

Pipelines: 

The "Alaska" story has been THE upstream North American story since January 20, 2021, but the "overall North American energy story" for past several years has been the pipeline story. That remains true today and will remain true for the next four years.

The international energy story: 

• since January 20, 2021, the international energy story has been ESG with certain oil companies (particularly foreign oil companies) pivoting to renewable energy;
• the next story: the previous story was a head fake; some of these foreign oil companies are now backtracking;
• exhibit A: Equinor (previously reported)