Notes From All Over -- Early Morning Edition -- June 7, 2021

Cold-hearted, cruel, and unconscionable. I don't get it, but unanimous. Unanimous. I never saw this coming, but then, I suppose, the justices are able to read the law. Congress can obviously fix this. I assume most (the people here for humanitarian reasons, not congress-people) will move to Canada:

Inflation. Price of McDonald's "Big Mac" over the decades -- Big Mac alone (Big Mac Meal):

• today, updated June, 2021: $3.99 ($5.99 and for a dime more, large French fries)
  
• 2020s: $4.95 ($7.89)
• 2010s: $4.19
• 2000s: $2.39
• 1990s: $2.45 ($4.59)
• 1980s: $1.60 ($2.59)
• 1970s: 65 cents
• 1960s: 45 cents 

 

• recent prices, February 17, 2021:
• Big Mac: $4.99
• Big Mac -- meal: $5.99
• French Fries: $1.39, $1.79, $1.89  (obviously, if you "move up," skip the medium and go for the "large" for only a dime more)
• breakfast:
• almost any entree, less than $1.50
• senior coffee: 69 cents, free refills

• bottom line:
• breakfast: $2.00
• lunch, large French Fries and a drink only: $2.89
• dinner: Big Mac Meal: $5.99 
• total for the day: $11

• That was my exact diet while hitchhiking through Germany during the summer of 1973
• I do not recall exactly what I paid for those meals in Germany but I believe I budgeted $4.00 / day for food. I seem to recall I often got by on four Deutsche Marks/day or about a dollar a day for food. I survived just fine and I hiked upwards of twenty miles/day -- about seven to ten hours of hiking through hilly and forested terrain -- Luxembourg to Koblenz, Germany, over a two-week period;
  
• lodging: about $5/night
• Bible: Europe on $5-a-Day -- 1957, Arthur Frommer travel guide that revolutionized the way Americans traveled; re-issued in 2007. 
  
• breakfast came with the overnight lodging (everywhere)
• there is no intended hyperbole in the data posted above;
  
• price of Big Mac in Germany in 2020: $5.01
  

Gasoline demand, link here:

I know we came close, but I don't recall if we ever hit 10 million bbls of gasoline per day for "gasoline demand." But that's the bar: 10 million bbls/per day. Our recent high: 9.5 million bbls. Tea leaves: we will easily hit 10 million bbls/day by Labor Day, 2021. Most recent: 

 First "gasoline demand" graphic ever on the blog, January 22, 2015: 

Bull market: third leg?

• first leg, the Obama bull market, 2009 - 2017:
• second leg,  Trump bull market, 2018 - 2020 (with short but deep contraction due to black swan; will turn out to be insignificant):
• third leg, the Biden bull market, 2021 -
  

Black swan: short term the pandemic was very, very costly; long term, incredibly important. I think it was a gift for investors, accumulating shares at deep discount for an entire year, through automatic reinvestment of dividends, reinvesting dividends in new names, and new cash in new and existing positions. Some of the mutual funds did incredibly well throughout the year. 

Apple/WWDC: at noon, CT, today.

CNBC: returns to NYSE. No masks, no social distancing. Apparently this is starting to happen all over NYC. Banks opening?

Dow: first new high since May, 2021; close to another all-time record.

Earnings estimates for Q2 and Q3 exploding:

• for 2Q21:
• in April, earnings estimates for 2Q21: will increase 545 y/y
• today, earnings estimates for 2Q21: will increase 62%
• going forward: analysts expects earning will be 70% high y/y for 2Q21;
  
• for 3Q21:
• in April, earnings estimates for 3Q21: will increase 19%
• today, earnings estimates for 3Q21: will increase 24%

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Oilsands: $60 billion in cash flow. Link here.

A group of five large Canadian oilsands companies are expected to generate about $60 billion in net cash flow over the next two years and spend only half of it on dividends and capital expenditures, leaving the rest for debt repayment and sharing with shareholders.

In a report, analyst William Lacey of ATB Capital Markets says the companies are expected to duplicate their sterling financial performance of the first quarter of 2021 for the rest of this year and in 2022, provided that benchmark West Texas Intermediate oil prices remain near US$60 per barrel.

Journaling:

• how journaling can help you live your best life;
• why keeping a journal matters: readers weigh in;
• advice for college-bound granddaughter, pending;

Air travel: look how much more runway there is -- this segment of the bull market is just beginning.

Atmospheric CO2: has anyone addressed this issue? There are several story lines here -- the rate of growth of atmospheric CO2 appears to have actually increased over the past year, from the end of March, 2020, to the end of March, 2021. The global economy was probably shut down as much as it will ever be shut down and the rate of growth of atmospheric CO2 actually increased? Greta must be in a panic, or laughing all the way to the bank as she schedules additional speaking engagements. See this link -- a most concerning graphic for faux environmentalists. 

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From National Doughnut Day