EIA dashboards:
- EIA pdf, Bakken: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/bakken.pdf
- EIA, pdf, Permian: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/permian.pdf
- EIA, pdf, Eagle Ford: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/eagleford.pdf
Bakken:
- oil: down 13, from 2,413 to 2,400
- natural gas: down 18, from 3,210 to 3,192
Eagle Ford:
- oil: up 1, from 2,334 to 2,335 (about a "hundred" less than the Bakken)
- natural gas: up 23, from 7,980 to 8,003
Permian:
- oil: down 5, from 1,240 to 1,235 (about "half" of that of the Bakken; are you kidding me?)
- natural gas: down 21, from 2,250 to 2,229 (actually less than the Bakken, say what?)
i still fail to see the usefulness of production per rig metrics...ie, one could be drilling a lot of wells and not be completing them, resulting in lower production, or conversely stack your rigs and complete the wells drilled two years ago, thereby increasing production..
ReplyDeleteYes, I agree. I think I still track "rig efficiency." Over time -- for the Bakken -- a two-year timeframe because DUCs need to be completed within two years (though waivers liberally given).
DeleteWith regard to "rig efficiency" the better metric is how long it takes to drill a well to depth, completed or not completed.
In the Bakken, they've reached the limit for all intents and purposes: the gold standard is around six days: three days to drill the vertical, though some do it slightly faster; one-half day to drill the curve; three days to drill the lateral.
The rig may be on site longer than this -- but not much -- while switching from the vertical to the curve to the lateral.
In the Bakken, the drilling is not the long pole in the tent, but rather the completion.
The biggest frustration for me: most analysts still use the conventional metrics rather than metrics more appropriate for shale/tight/unconventional.
On top of that, there is still so much we don't know about shale/tight/unconventional -- the biggest unknown that I'm most interested in, is how much of OOIP will eventually be recovered in the Bakken through primary production (initial drilling/completion; re-works; small re-fracks; neighboring fracks; major re-fracks or re-drilling/re-fracking in same location.
Life so many things in life, rig efficiency, regardless of how it is measured, is only one metric of many.
For the analysts/network talking heads to change the metrics now would be admitting defeat in missing the shale impact. They have no choice but to continue on with the rhetoric.
ReplyDeleteI've talked about this elliptically on the blog for quite some time. The shale revolution would result in two losers: Saudi Arabia and Germany.
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