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Tuesday, May 4, 2021

Closer Look At Two Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- May 4, 2021

Before we get started -- 

Sell in May, go away: market futures down -- could be worst day for the market this year. AAPL plunges. Shares fall almost $5/share; now trading well below $130. Epic scare?
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Back to the Bakken

Note
: in a long note like this there will be typographical and content errors. 

Note
: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken.

Note: I often see things that don't exist. "I see ghosts." Facts and opinions are interspersed in blogs; it's difficult to tell the difference. 

Note: I often wonder whether ....

This is interesting
: compare and contrast two operators, compare and contrast two fields. Both wells showed about the same production the first month. The MRO well will eventually be the (much) better well but initially the Hess well is holding its own.
  • field: the Reunion oil field historically has been a remarkable field for production, right in the center of the best Bakken, and yet, here we have the Manitou oil field, not too shabby;
  • operator: I think most agree that MRO has absolutely led the pack in the Bakken in reporting incredible fields, incredible wells, and an incredible re-frack program; on the other hand, Hess has been in the middle of the pack, some would argue near the back of the pack when it comes to reporting initial production, and here we have Hess holding its own with MRO.
I'm reminded of a question in The Big Lebowski: "What makes a man, Mr Lebowski?" 

In the Bakken, what makes a Tier 1 location? How does a Tier 2 location become a Tier 1 location?
 
The wells coming off confidential list today -- Tuesday, May 4, 2021: 7 for the month, 31 for the quarter, 112 for the year:
  • 36919, F/A, MRO, Klemstead USA 44-5TFH, Reunion Bay, first production, 11/20; t--; cum 146K 3/21;
  • 36605, F/A, Hess, EN-Anderson-LE-156-94-1820H-6, Manitou, first production, 11/20; t--; cum 135K 3/21; the Manitou field was one of the early fields I tracked in the Bakken; then lost interest once I had a feeling for it; I never thought it would be that great as an oil field, north of the best part of the Bakken at the time (north of the river) and east of the East Nessen anticline but with Tier 2 Bakken locations becoming Tier 1 locations, Manitou looks to be a fairly good field; which raises another question, how do Tier 2 locations in the Bakken become Tier 1 locations? Yes, if oil goes to $200/bbl, the entire Bakken becomes Tier 1 but that's not the answer I was looking for. LOL.

The wells:

  • 36919, F/A, MRO, Klemstead USA 44-5TFH, Reunion Bay, first production, 11/20; t--; cum 146K 3/21; the Klemstead well is tracked here; fracked, 930/20 - 10/14/20; 8.3 million gallons of water; 56% fresh water by mass; 25% produced water by mass;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-20213132820326733721957616556390
BAKKEN2-20212618695186662938227100248141150
BAKKEN1-20213126124261404324737667361080
BAKKEN12-20203028054282964867038494368160
BAKKEN11-20202240073394988963853394510190
BAKKEN10-2020200308000
  • 36605, F/A, Hess, EN-Anderson-LE-156-94-1820H-6, Manitou, first production, 11/20; t--; cum 135K 3/21; fracked 9/9/20 - 9/25/20; 9.6 million gallons of water; 87.2% water by mass;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-20213124475244502031636412364120
BAKKEN2-202125160111607718558269782692949
BAKKEN1-20213124390243132521834126341260
BAKKEN12-2020312888729015316033764337280363
BAKKEN11-20202541296410449090024094220522042

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