Closer Look At Two Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- May 4, 2021

Before we get started -- 

Sell in May, go away: market futures down -- could be worst day for the market this year. AAPL plunges. Shares fall almost $5/share; now trading well below $130. Epic scare?

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Back to the Bakken

Note: in a long note like this there will be typographical and content errors. 

Note: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken.

Note: I often see things that don't exist. "I see ghosts." Facts and opinions are interspersed in blogs; it's difficult to tell the difference. 

Note: I often wonder whether ....

This is interesting: compare and contrast two operators, compare and contrast two fields. Both wells showed about the same production the first month. The MRO well will eventually be the (much) better well but initially the Hess well is holding its own.

• field: the Reunion oil field historically has been a remarkable field for production, right in the center of the best Bakken, and yet, here we have the Manitou oil field, not too shabby;
• operator: I think most agree that MRO has absolutely led the pack in the Bakken in reporting incredible fields, incredible wells, and an incredible re-frack program; on the other hand, Hess has been in the middle of the pack, some would argue near the back of the pack when it comes to reporting initial production, and here we have Hess holding its own with MRO.

I'm reminded of a question in The Big Lebowski: "What makes a man, Mr Lebowski?" 

In the Bakken, what makes a Tier 1 location? How does a Tier 2 location become a Tier 1 location?

 

The wells coming off confidential list today -- Tuesday, May 4, 2021: 7 for the month, 31 for the quarter, 112 for the year:

• 36919, F/A, MRO, Klemstead USA 44-5TFH, Reunion Bay, first production, 11/20; t--; cum 146K 3/21;
• 36605, F/A, Hess, EN-Anderson-LE-156-94-1820H-6, Manitou, first production, 11/20; t--; cum 135K 3/21; the Manitou field was one of the early fields I tracked in the Bakken; then lost interest once I had a feeling for it; I never thought it would be that great as an oil field, north of the best part of the Bakken at the time (north of the river) and east of the East Nessen anticline but with Tier 2 Bakken locations becoming Tier 1 locations, Manitou looks to be a fairly good field; which raises another question, how do Tier 2 locations in the Bakken become Tier 1 locations? Yes, if oil goes to $200/bbl, the entire Bakken becomes Tier 1 but that's not the answer I was looking for. LOL.
  

The wells:

• 36919, F/A, MRO, Klemstead USA 44-5TFH, Reunion Bay, first production, 11/20; t--; cum 146K 3/21; the Klemstead well is tracked here; fracked, 930/20 - 10/14/20; 8.3 million gallons of water; 56% fresh water by mass; 25% produced water by mass;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2021	31	32820	32673	37219	57616	55639	0
BAKKEN	2-2021	26	18695	18666	29382	27100	24814	1150
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	26124	26140	43247	37667	36108	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	30	28054	28296	48670	38494	36816	0
BAKKEN	11-2020	22	40073	39498	89638	53394	51019	0
BAKKEN	10-2020	2	0	0	308	0	0	0

• 36605, F/A, Hess, EN-Anderson-LE-156-94-1820H-6, Manitou, first production, 11/20; t--; cum 135K 3/21; fracked 9/9/20 - 9/25/20; 9.6 million gallons of water; 87.2% water by mass;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2021	31	24475	24450	20316	36412	36412	0
BAKKEN	2-2021	25	16011	16077	18558	26978	26929	49
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	24390	24313	25218	34126	34126	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	31	28887	29015	31603	37643	37280	363
BAKKEN	11-2020	25	41296	41044	90900	24094	22052	2042