Privately-Held Shale Drillers Could Create Havoc For OPEC --World Oil -- March 13, 2021

The data points in this article are absolutely mind-boggling. A huge "thank you" to the reader who sent me this: privately-held shale drillers poised to create headaches for OPEC, worldoil.com, March 1, 2021.

The battered and bruised U.S. shale industry is finding a resurgence in one of the most unlikely places: private operators most investors have never heard of. Take the case of little known, closely held DoublePoint Energy. It’s now running more rigs in the Permian Basin than giant Chevron Corp. Meanwhile, family-owned Mewbourne Oil Co. has about the same number of rigs as Exxon Mobil Corp.

That’s emblematic of what’s happening across the industry. Once minor players, private drillers held half the share of the horizontal rig count as of December. It’s the first time in the modern shale era that they have risen to the level of the supermajors.

Again, repeating: Once minor players, private drillers held half the share of the horizontal rig count as of December. It’s the first time in the modern shale era that they have risen to the level of the supermajors.

Look at this:

“It’s amazing on both fronts: private companies are getting so much bigger than we ever thought they would and the publics are drilling so much less than we ever thought they would,” said Wil Vanloh, co-founder of the private equity firm Quantum Energy Partners, whose portfolio companies have combined for 18 rigs, trailing only EOG Resources Inc. for most in the nation. 

The other day I said that NOG was the most fascinating small "player" in the Bakken.  One almost get the feeling that NOG could become a major player before this is all over. If not "NOG," then perhaps another "NOG."  The linked article continues:

With oil prices up close to 30% in the past two months, traders and analysts are watching shale producers closely for signs that they’re opening the spigots. 

Most big publicly traded explorers are listening to investors’ pleas and planning to keep production flat. 

But the contrast in output strategy from the private companies underscores just how anarchic the oil market is. 

America’s oil production currently stands at about 9.7 million barrels a day, about 3 million barrels a day less than a year ago before prices collapsed, according to the Department of Energy. 

That means the U.S. lost production equivalent to Iran and Angola combined, or two Gulf of Mexicos, in just 12 months. 

The question is where does it go from here. A Bloomberg survey of major forecasters including Enverus and Rystad Energy showed a variance of 700,000 barrels a day, more than half of Nigeria’s production, indicating how much uncertainty surrounds large, private producers whose plans are mostly shielded from public view. 

If private drillers keep expanding at their current pace, it could eventually mean that U.S. production ends up on the higher end of analyst forecasts. And that, of course, could weigh on prices.

It appears that $60-WTI (in today's dollars) is the magic number. I still think it's going to be very interesting to see whether US shale "can turn on a dime."

I think US shale can ("turn on a dime") and will if WTI stays above $60.  

And I would assume most of those small players are in the Permian, west Texas and New Mexico, where the pipeline infrastructure is well-enough developed to handle any increased oil production, unlike ND which risks closure of the DAPL.