No Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today; We're Goin' To The Moon; Why US Shale Production Keeps Exceeding Expectations -- March 11, 2021

Most interesting bit of trivia posted this week: BNSF accounts for twenty-five percent of Berkshire Hathaway's EBITDA. Previously posted. I don't know about you but I find that absolutely incredible. BNSF only accounts for 9% of BRK's holdings, but accounts for 25% of its income EBITDA or something like that. I might have that wrong, but if you want to check, it was posted yesterday with a link.

We're goin' to the moon.

Firster things firster: this is so cool. Yesterday I posted a note about John Fogerty and CCR. Today, RBN Energy's choice of songs: Centerfield by John Fogerty. Whoo-hoo. Link here. I was going to post this song last night but I felt I had posted it so many times, I thought, "not again." But here we go:

By the way: from a reader, a comment from yesterday --

Regarding John Fogerty. Saw an interview with him by Dan Rather in which he was asked “how many times have you played Proud Mary?” After thinking about, Fogerty responded “not enough”.

First things first:

I've been watching sports talk television in the morning (0700 - 1200) almost exclusively for the past six months. 

It's been mostly about Dak Prescott and the Cowboys. It's amazing how "they've" missed the big story. How Jerry Jones played the media was priceless. He took lessons from Elon Musk. It's interesting that someone like me who understands the business of sports finally figured it out. For now, all I will say: Jerry Jones was brilliant. One wonders if Dak was playing along.

Don't fight the ECB. So, why are Dow futures surging after a record-setting day yesterday? Here and here.

Jobless numbers: if anyone cared, there would be more of an uproar of the loss of jobs connected with killing the Keystone XL. That's why the jobless report no longer matters. In fact, did it ever matter? Even the unions no longer care.

This seems like a problem. Link here. But then, it's been a problem for many years. 

LA ports. The Port of Long Beach posts busiest February on record amid ongoing import rush. Link here.

• TEUs: increased over 43%, year/year -- repeat, a 43% increase year-over-year
• loaded inbound containers grew by over 50% year over year
• did anyone say we're going to come out of the pandemic faster than anyone expected?
• note: although activity typically slows in February as East Asian factories close for up to two weeks to celebrate the Lunar New Year, China largely worked through the holiday to fill back orders and meet the increasing demands of consumers ordering items online;

Sad. Not sad. Every hotel was sold out in Midland last night. Link here.

Someone finally gets it. Rig counts don't matter. How long have I been saying this? Finally, someone gets it. This will be re-posted as a stand-alone post. Perhaps the only thing that needs to be read this week. Maybe this month. Stay tuned. I will post the link later. Don't worry I won't forget. It's a great article. The writer made only one mistake of any real substance. Archived.

And finally: Sonic allows customers to tip carhops with updated app at 1,000 locations. One of those locations is located across the street from our apartment complex. I go to Sonic once every five years. From a reader:

I can take or leave the rest of their menu.  They feature "Tot-chos", which are nachos made with tater tots instead of corn chips.  I know people who are absolutely addicted to them.  Tater tots have never been my thing, but they have a very loyal following.

The fresh limeade, however, calls my name every couple weeks during the summer and occasionally the rest of the year.  I order a very large drink and am always surprised that I finish the entire thing.  They're running a special now,and drinks are half price if you order them online.  They also do cherry limeade if someone likes a sweeter beverage, but I like mine tart enough to rattle my teeth just a little.

So, I don't order the largest size, I order the penultimate. LOL.

Rigs: in the Bakken -- at 12 - 15 for the past year or so. Prediction: by the end of CY21, there is a 90% chance there will be 21 active rigs in the Bakken, and a 50% chance that there will be 30 or more. I generally don't make predictions but when I do, they are usually wrong. 

Seeing the cup as half empty: me, I see the cup as half full, but Noah obviously doesn't. From Reuters, this opening from Noah:

Crude oil in storage at major land and sea hubs rose last week as a build-up in China and the US Gulf Coast reflected oil markets' bumpy road to recovery. This has nothing to do with a "bumpy road" to recovery. 

This is just how things are. Not only is the recovery not "bumpy," it's moving along a lot faster than anyone predicted six months ago. Previously posted.

***************************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$65.40	3/11/2021	03/11/2020	03/11/2019	03/11/2018	03/11/2017
Active Rigs	15	56	65	59	45

No wells coming off confidential list today.

RBN Energy: hydrogen slides "on deck" and ready to play. Archived.

In the world of public equities, nothing speaks relevance like a PowerPoint slide in the earnings call and conference decks that companies put together for analysts and investors. If a topic’s not important, then it probably didn’t “make the deck” — or even the appendix, for that matter. As consultants, we at RBN are familiar with this concept and we’ve been watching for some time to see just how long it would take hydrogen, one of our favorite recent subjects, to make its way into the slide-deck line-ups at some of the largest energy companies. Well, that time has arrived, with two energy stalwarts prominently featuring 2021’s darling subject over the last few days. However, with a new topic comes a need to put things in context. No problem, we are here to help on that. Today, we continue our series on H₂ with a look at some recent hydrogen-focused slides from ExxonMobil and Enterprise Products Partners.

Two of my favorite companies: XOM and EPD -- both mentioned above. How good can it get!

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