Making American Great Again -- Keeping America Great -- Building Back Better -- March 15, 2021

Most important data point for millennial investors:

• had it not been for Trump, we would be comparing the Biden economy with that of Woodrow Wilson (#43), Herbert Hoover (#44), Calvin Coolidge (42), Jimmy Carter (#45), and Barack Obama (#41):
• ranking subject to change; not enough data yet to rank current president
  
• the Biden economy will be compared with his predecessor's economy; huge deal.

US economy soaring: link here.

Re-posting:

Link here.

If Goldman's forecast is correct, it would mark the largest economic expansion for the U.S. in generations.

• Not only would 8% annual growth denote a stupendous turnaround from the coronavirus pandemic, it would significantly outpace the firm's growth expectations for the U.S. from as recently as late 2020.

What they're saying: "We have raised our GDP forecast to reflect the latest fiscal policy news and now expect 8% growth in 2021 (Q4/Q4) and an unemployment rate of 4% at end-2021 — the lowest among consensus forecasts—that falls to 3.5% in 2022 and 3.2% in 2023," Goldman said in the note.

• "But we expect inflation dynamics to mirror those last cycle, and therefore expect this forecast to translate to only 2.1% core PCE inflation in 2023."

Between the lines: Goldman has been exceptionally bullish on the prospects for U.S. growth all year, far outpacing most other Wall Street banks' expectations.

• The average growth expectation among Wall Street analysts is 4.7%, according to FactSet, and was 3.9% as recently as November.
• Further, economic growth of 8% with inflation reaching just 2.1% would be almost unprecedented.

By the numbers: A growth of 8% this year would put U.S. GDP at around $22.6 trillion, marking a full recovery after the economy shrank 4.1% in 2020.

• U.S. GDP hasn't grown 8% in a year since 1951, when it totaled $356 billion.

More at the link.

By the way, Janet Yellen is also predicting full employment by the end of 2021.