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Monday, March 8, 2021

Idle Rambling On The Price Of Oil -- March 8, 2021

Link here

What came / comes first, the chicken or the egg. In this case, what came / comes first, high oil prices or a recession?

Screenshot of the graphic with no markings on it. See if anything jumps out at you.

The same screenshot of the graphic with my observations:

Some other observations / comments:

  • Saudi Arabia can't survive on $60 oil;
  • Saudi Arabia would like oil high enough as possible without pushing global economy into a recession;
    • but if survival is in question, worries about a global recession are moot;
  • under the new US administration, US E&P companies are being very, very careful with plans for expansion;
  • the new administration killed the Keystone XL; stopped drilling/fracking on federal lands; slowed permitting across the board; put the DAPL in question
  • "everyone" suggests there is a real shortage of oil coming on line; there may be an excess now, but the daily production is not keeping up with projected demand;
  • the interesting thing is that "everyone" has been suggesting that for several months now -- that production was not keeping up with anticipated demand, but what is becoming very interesting is that the two largest global economies, China and the US, may be coming out of the pandemic a lot faster than "anyone" predicted; see all the stories at this post; if so, it's even worse with regard to daily production keeping up with demand;
  • inflation tends to push the price of oil up;

Everything suggests WTI will get back to $80 sooner or later. The only question is whether the price of oil will melt up, slowly and orderly, or whether it will be more of a spike.

That's why I posted the graphics above. I was curious. Does the price of oil move up/down in an orderly and controlled fashion? 

It's a fool's errand to try to predict the price of oil, but everything suggests that this time next year we may look back on $65-WTI with fondness. 

The graphic again, with more comments:

(1): the drop from $120 to $40 occurred when Saudi Arabia opened the taps in an effort to destroy US shale, what "we" call the Saudi Surge, 2014 to 2016.

(2): Saudi then put policies in play to move the price of oil from $40 to $70 before it dropped back to $60. I don't know the specifics why oil dropped back to $60 at that time, but I do know that Trump was jawboning Saudi Arabia to keep oil prices from surging -- linking US protection for Saudi with affordable oil prices. 

(3) Then the "black swan" -- Covid-19 -- completely unexpected and the price of oil plummeted from $60 to $20 (even going negative at one point). 

Going forward:

All things being equal, one would expect the price of WTI to return to where it was at (2) -- at $75 to $80 -- before Trump started working Prince MBS to bring the price of oil down. But all things are not equal. 

For one thing, we're coming out of a year-long, global "lockdown." And, on top of that, it appears we are coming out of it faster than Dr Fauci and the CDC thought possible just two months ago.

For a second thing: inflation. Treasury bonds. Yields. Commodities in general are surging and the number one commodity? Oil.

Third: Trump has that "something" that could convince Prince MBS to hold prices steady. That certainly is not true with the present administration. Even under the best of circumstances, the present administration would have very little sway on Prince MBS. But with recent "things" coming out of Washington -- specifically the Khashoggi report -- there is no love lost between the Saudi king and the US president. 

And that circles back to the fact that Saudi Arabia cannot survive on $60 oil. 

"Every" analyst was said to be surprised that Saudi -- given all the facts -- did not elect to raise production at the March meeting but twisted arms to maintain lower production for at least one more month. 

That decision may have been nothing more than wavering, not sure what to do. But one could also argue that Saudi was willing to let global oil supplies deteriorate even more, even as China and the US come out of the global recession / pandemic much more quickly than anyone imagined. 

Saudi needs $100-oil, and soon. 

I remember some years ago, a "talking head" opined that we would see $200-oil before we saw $40-oil again. That talking head was wrong then, but he/she may be right this time around.

2 comments:

  1. I think the one thing helping Saudis to control price is the VERY significant concerns the O&G industry has on Biden. It looks right away that he is much worse than Obama. The permit freeze is HUGE in the NM Permian, GOM, and PRB. Also, the cancelling of Keystone, along with significant uncertainty on DAPL and Line 3/5 (and any new pipes dead in the water).

    Saudis are helped because they know US is not able to respond because Biden administration is anti oil and gas, and actually wants high prices to incentivize e vehicles. Otherwise, US would respond like it did in late 2017 through end 2019. Going from 9 MM bopd to 13 MM bopd in 2.5 years. That kind of response makes it hard for OPEC to drive price too high. The rest of the world doesn't really do much until 100 or even 150. But shale responds very strong at prices north of 70. Basically, stopping long term prices from being north of 70.

    Note, also despite all the "momentum fallacies" (price went up therefore it will keep going up) that the futures market is backwardated.

    Also, I think there's some geopolitical risk being priced into prices right now (couple buck or so) from the Houthi attacks.

    All that said, OPEC+ has been very effective in propping prices up. But...don't forget they have 7 MM bopd off the market! If that got dumped back, we'd be in the 20s, toot sweet.

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    Replies
    1. Well said. I think Saudi Arabia knows it is back in the driver's seat with Biden in charge.

      But, at the end of the day, it's all about demand:

      India is the sleeper here; more and more stories about India's GDP growth this year and its demand for oil.

      Meanwhile, China and the US are going to come out of the lockdown much faster than previously predicted (story on exactly that posted earlier today).

      Everything just suggests the price of oil is going to go much, much higher -- just a question of how fast it moves.

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