Idle Comments On That 20+ Million-Bbl Build Last Week -- March 4, 2021

That 20+ million bbl crude oil build could have been 30-million bbls. See this link. Some things to consider with regard to the Texas February Freeze:

• prior to the EIA weekly report, there were forecasts that there would be a 2-million-bbl withdrawal, which is/was very much in line with previous reports, and typical of weekly EIA petroleum reports;
• a move of one-to-five million bbls build or withdrawal are the norm; a 20+ million-bbl build is almost unheard of and at least one reader who follows this very, very closely suggests it might have been closer to 30 million bbls based on the EIA's "fudge factor;
  
• in the big scheme of things, nationwide, there was not much of a drop in economic activity across the US during the Texas February Freeze, February 15 - February 19, 2021
• even in Texas, the overall economic activity probably did not drop all that much; 
• in fact, hotels were booming; plumbers were busier than ever; propane dried up, it was in such demand; 
• confirmed by no change in gasoline demand, a pretty good indicator of economic activiity;
  
• reports were coming out of the Permian that "everything" was shut down; i.e., no crude oil production;
  
• reports within days following the unfavorable event suggested that refineries, though hit hard, were opening up
• there were reports that one out of seven service stations in north Texas were out of gasoline, I didn't see that; hurricanes cause much more regional trouble
• gasoline demand remained pretty much unchanged week/week according to this week's EIA report
• I'm hoping that RBN Energy blogs about that 20+ million bbl build -- in hindsight, it all makes sense, but it certainly seems to have caught analysts off guard

Cushing:

• according to wiki: crude oil tanks around Cushing have approximately 91 million bbls of storage capacity;
• from a reader citing ZeroHedge:
• API had Cushing +732k barrels; EIA had Cushing +485k
• in other words,
• the EIA reported a 20+ million-bbl build in crude oil in the US last week
• EIA and API both had Cushing builds well below one million bbls;