Director's Cut -- January, 2021, Data -- Crude Oil Production Drops Almost 4% Month-Over-Month

Updates

Later, 10:49 p.m. Central Time: from twitter --

Later, 7:08 p.m. Central Time: production was down almost 4% month-over-month (happened last year, also);

• not due to lack of rigs
• due to high winds preventing / delaying fracking; 
• link here;

High winds led to power outages in parts of the Bakken in January, causing oil production to fall, the state’s top regulator said Thursday upon releasing North Dakota’s latest oil figures. The state's daily crude output for January was 1.147 million barrels, a 4% drop from December. Oil data reported to the state lags by several months. [In fact, preliminary figures lag by less than six weeks. January's data -- through January 31 -- was published March 11, which means the state had the data less than six weeks after the end of the month, hardly "several months."]

“We had a day of 90 mph winds in the oil patch, so electric power was lost through significant portions of oil and gas fields,” State Mineral Resources Director Lynn Helms said. 

“It took about 10 days to fully restore the power.” The outages knocked about 50,000 barrels per day offline during that time, he said. 

North Dakota Pipeline Authority Director Justin Kringstad said February could be “another tough month.” Western North Dakota faced bitterly cold temperatures for a number of days, as well as blackouts caused by extreme cold in the southern United States.

Original Post

Director's Cut: posted, link here. The Director's Cuts are tracked here.

The usual disclaimer applies: in a long note like this, done quickly, there will be content and typographical errors. If this is important to you, go to the source.  

January, 2021, data. This is all preliminary data for January, 2021. When the final number is tallied (next month), it will reveal a slight increase in production month-over-month):

Crude price (ND light sweet):

• today: $56.25
• February,2021: $49.13
  
• January, 2021: $41.77
• December, 2020: $37.70
• November, 2020: 33.22

Crude oil production:

• January, 2021: 1,147,374 (preliminary)
  
• December: 1,192,145 (preliminary); 1,191,429 bopd (final)
  
• November: 1,224,540 (preliminary); 1,227,138 bopd (final)
  
• October: 1,222,871 bopd (preliminary); 1,231,048 bopd (final)
  
• delta:  -44,055 bopd (this is interesting -- Lynn Helms said 50K bopd were lost due to high winds in January, 2021)
  
• delta:  -3.7%
  

Natural gas production:

• January, 2021: 2,847,719 MCF (preliminary)
  
• December: 2,892,908 (preliminary); 2,888,626 MCF / day (final)
  
• November: 2,887,402 (preliminary); 2,890,376 MCF/day (final)
  
• October: 2,873,654 MCF/day (preliminary); 2,881,717 (final)
• delta: -6,8172 boepd
• delta: -1.44%
  

Natural gas capture:

• January, 2021: 94%
• December, 94%
• November, 93%
• October, 93%

Rig count:

• today: 15 (no SWD or CS rigs)
• February, 2021: 15 (but may include CS and SWD)
• January: 12 (but may include CS and SWD)
• December: 14 (but may include CS and SWD)
• October: 14 (ditto)

Wells

• February:
• permitted: 72
• completed: 32 (preliminary)
  
• January:
• permitted: 49
• completed: 59 (revised)
• inactive: 2,597
• DUCs: 661
• total off line for operational reasons: 3,258
• producing: 15,798
  
• December:
• permitted: 66
• completed: 44 (final)
  
• inactive: 2,687
• DUCs: 668
  
• total off line for operational reasons: 3,355
  
• producing: 15,798 (preliminary)
• November: 
• permitted: 52
• completed: 44 (preliminary
• inactive: 2,870
• DUCs: 710
• total off line for operational reasons: 3,580 
• producing: 15,601 (preliminary)
  
• October:
• permitted: 74
• completed: 59 (preliminary); 74 (revised)
  
• inactive: 2,934
• DUCs: 724
• total off line for operational reasons: 3,658
• producing: 15,512 (preliminary); 15,524 (final)

**********************************
Wells
Inactive Wells and DUCs Tracked Here

Wells, permitted:

• February, 2021: 72
  
• January, 2021: 49
• December: 66
• November: 52
• October: 74
• September: 51

Wells, completed:

• February: 32 (preliminary)
• January, 2021: 59 (revised)
  
• December: 44 (final)
  
• November: 44 (preliminary); 74 (final)
  
• October: 59 (preliminary); 74 (revised)
  
• September: 76 (revised); 54 (final)
  
• August: 66 (final)

Wells, inactive:

• January, 2021: 2,597
  
• December: 2,687
• November: 2,870
• October: 2,934
• September: 3,749

Wells, waiting on completion (DUCs):

• January, 2021: 661
• December: 668
• November: 710
• October: 724
• September: 793

Wells, producing

• January, 2021: 15,798 preliminary;
  
• December: 15,798 (preliminary); 15,800 (final)
  
• November: 15,601 (preliminary); 15,620 (revised)
  
• October: 15,512 (preliminary); 15,524 (revised)
  
• September: 15,389

Fracking: the number of well completions has been very volatile since March (2020) as the number of active completion crews decreased from 25 to 1; then 7 with the CARES incentive (last month) and now 6 with most recent report.