Later: see first comment. I've moved that comment up to the main body of the blog for easier access --
It wasn't four dot oh, but it was really one of the better pieces on this sort of thing that I've seen in a while. Smart and well written.
I think you commonly make the mistake of thinking source A to buyer B is important (something many article writers do in error also). However, what really matters is world supply and demand. I.e. the total in/out. Not who gets from who. This is because oil is "fungible". So we feel a price impact regardless of if an outage is from a direct supplier or not.
The reason the article is not perfect is that it does not really discuss product sales enough. A substantial portion of the "products" is propane sales. And propane is really economically more related to natural gas, both supply and consumption. So, if you looked at liquid fuels, we're not even really a net exporter, yet. [But this is a nuance. His main point, how we feel outages REGARDLESS of if they are DIRECT suppliers, is critical. And still important to say it. As so many people, don't get it.
Tiger update: finally some adult forensics analysis. We've all been there.
Original Post
Physical flows of crude from the Persian Gulf to U.S. shores have dwindled to a trickle, suggesting that a total halt wouldn’t have a dramatic impact and could be offset by increasing purchases form elsewhere or slowly drawing down strategic stockpiles.
But events in the region that still pumps close a third of the world’s crude can still roil markets, generating huge swings in oil prices that affect everyone from shale frackers to car drivers.
Ho-hum. Must have been a struggle to come up with a topic for an opinion piece. LOL.
****************************
For The Archives
Oldest granddaughter accepted to Vanderbilt. Nine percent acceptance rate. UT-Austin: a 38 percent acceptance rate. Will double major in nuclear engineering and bio-molecular technology with a minor in computer programming. Just joking. I have no idea what her subject interest will be. But she's going to love the ambience of Nashville, TN. Wow, I envy her.
One area of the country I would love to spend more time exploring: Tennessee.
Tennessee played a bigger role in my life than most folks know.
********************************
Texas Freeze
It wasn't four dot oh, but it was really one of the better pieces on this sort of thing that I've seen in a while. Smart and well written.
ReplyDeleteI think you commonly make the mistake of thinking source A to buyer B is important (something many article writers do in error also). However, what really matters is world supply and demand. I.e. the total in/out. Not who gets from who. This is because oil is "fungible". So we feel a price impact regardless of if an outage is from a direct supplier or not.
The reason the article is not perfect is that it does not really discuss product sales enough. A substantial portion of the "products" is propane sales. And propane is really economically more related to natural gas, both supply and consumption. So, if you looked at liquid fuels, we're not even really a net exporter, yet. [But this is a nuance. His main point, how we feel outages REGARDLESS of if they are DIRECT suppliers, is critical. And still important to say it. As so many people, don't get it.
Great note. Much appreciated. I will probably bring it up as a stand-alone post so it's easier to access. Thank you so much.
DeleteThe Bloomberg article does not see the big picture. I will use heating my house as an example. It's 110 year old house with little insulation. It used to be heated by oil as primary heat, then installed a pellet stove. No longer need need to buy 800 gallons of #2 heating oil. Now oil is supplemental heat, cut my heating bill by 1/2.
DeleteSo if for some reason the Arab countries supply is cut, crude cost could easily double, there will be sufficient supplies to carry on, but at a much higher price. Not like in 1974 when I was attending Tech School when news that there are 126 gas stations in Allentown PA., and only 2 are open when the Saudis cut us off from crude oil.
Wow, what a great example. I think you hit the nail on the head. The folks who wrote that Bloomberg article are millennials who did not live through the OPEC embargo. I remember that embargo vividly and the long, long lines. That won't happen again. That to me means "energy independent." Obviously the Bloomberg writers in this case don't get it.
DeleteAnd we can thank the independent frackers and roughnecks. And a lot of other folks.