Wednesday, July 22, 2020
Finally, A New #1 Post -- July 22, 2020
Updates
July 23, 2020: the post (linked below) that was in the #1 spot for months is now not even showing up among the top ten. Disappeared completely.
Original Post
This post seemed to be in the #1 spot for months! I thought something was wrong with the algorithm that drove the "trending posts" at the sidebar at the right.
But finally, a new #1. And this one surged. I think it was just posted yesterday.
Amazing.
Road To New England; Road To New York -- July 22, 2020
Updates
July 23, 2020: Nick and I live in two different universes. First, note the amount of energy that wind contributes to overall energy consumption in NYC (below) and then read the oilprice headline story: renewable energy is seizing market share during the pandemic.
Later, 10:19 p.m. CDT: a reader noted, with regard to ISO New England below --
On the box to the left of the 'Fuel Mix Chart' (pie chart), is the 'Fuel Mix Graph'.
If you click on the 3 horizontal lines at the top of this box, actual numbers appear displaying the precise amount of contributory megawatts from each fuel source in 5 to 20 minute increments throughout the day.Today, at 11:20 AM Eastern Time, the region was consuming ~19,000 Megawatts overall.
Of this amount, wind contributed 33 Megawatts ... a share of less than one quarter of one parcent.
Comment: I don't know about you, but I find that absolutely amazing: of 19,000 megawatts overall, electricity demand/consumption, wind supplied all of 33 megawatts. Think about how many news stories we've been subjected to over the years regarding wind energy -- and this is all they have to show for it after all this time. Thirty-three megawatts out of a total of 19,000 megawatts.This, on perhaps the highest demand day of the year so far.
33/19,000 = not that it matters but that works out to 0.17% wind contribution. Not even half of a percent. Not ever a fifth of one percent.
Original Post
Link here.
ISO NY, link here: for all the ink the New York press devotes to wind energy --- here is wind energy contribution to NYC area:
Amazon uses a lot of electricity. Jeff Bezos was incredibly fortunate AOC stopped him from moving HQ2 to Long Island. Wow. He dodged a silver bullet.
If You Think The Traffic Is Bad Now -- Wait Until Tesla Moves In -- Austin, TX -- July 22, 2020
Austin and Texas: thrilled that AOC doesn't live here. As it was, a lot of folks from Austin, TX, said they were against it, at least according to reports. I don't know. I don't live there; seldom visit; and, don't have a dog in this fight. But having said that .... woo-hoo!
No longer a California company.
Link here.
No longer a California company.
Link here.
In one of the largest economic development projects in Austin’s history, electric automaker Tesla says it will build a $1.1 billion assembly plant in Travis County that will employ 5,000 people.
Wages at the factory — to be located on 2,100 acres off Texas 130 and Harold Green Road — will start at $35,000 annually, counting benefits, bringing job opportunities and investment to a southeastern portion of the county that officials say is sorely in need of them.
It will produce the electric vehicle maker’s upcoming Cybertruck electric pickup, as well as be a second site to build its Model Y SUV. Tesla officials previously have said they intend to break ground on the factory by the third quarter of this year, although CEO Elon Musk said Wednesday that initial work at the site actually began last weekend.
“The location is five minutes from (Austin-Bergstrom International Airport) and 15 minutes from downtown Austin,” Musk said, speaking on a conference call with Wall Street analysts following the company’s second-quarter earnings release.
No New Permits -- July 22, 2020
COP to buy Montney acreage in $375 million deal. From SeekingAlpha. See note of April 6, 2018, also.
OPEC basket: up to $44.29.
Active rigs:
No new permits.
Three permits renewed:
- ConocoPhillips agrees to acquire additional acreage in Canada's Montney shale from Kelt Exploration for $375M
- Conoco says the deal includes 140K net acres in the liquids-rich Inga-Fireweed asset Montney zone, directly adjacent to the company's existing Montney position and increases its acreage in the play to 295K net acres with 100% working interest.
- separately, Conoco says it initiated production from its Montney development during Q1, and production continues to ramp up from its first multi-well pad
- Conoco recently guided for Q2 production excluding Libya totaling 960K-980K boe/day, in-line with the prior-year period and ~5% below Q1 totals
OPEC basket: up to $44.29.
********************************
Back to the Bakken
Active rigs:
| $41.85 | 7/22/2020 | 07/22/2019 | 07/22/2018 | 07/22/2017 | 07/22/2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Rigs | 11 | 55 | 67 | 58 | 32 |
No new permits.
Three permits renewed:
- Oasis: one Erickson permit in Burke County;
- Slawson: one Stallion permit in Mountrail County;
- XTO: one Edwards Trust Federal permit in McKenzie County
Earnings After Hours -- Chipotle, Tesla, Microsoft -- July 22, 2020
Chipotle, Tesla, and Microsoft all beat.
TSLA: $2.18 EPS vs $0.03 expected. Revenues of $6.04 billion vs $5.37 billion.
Dow finishes up 165 points. Even the NASDAQ, down all day long, ended up 26 points.
TSLA: $2.18 EPS vs $0.03 expected. Revenues of $6.04 billion vs $5.37 billion.
Huge, indescribable beat. This is truly historic. "They" will talk about this for days. Gigafactory: down to two sites. Perhaps we will know at conference call where gigafactory will be built. Most of earnings came on regulatory credits sales. Year-on-year revenue down; deliveries year-on-year down. Now eligible for S&P. But again, this is not a car company. This is a battery company and a regulatory credits sales company. Four quarters of sequential profitability for Tesla. TSLA up 100 points after hours; up 6%. Cash and cash equivalents: $8.6 billion.NFL: looks more and more like the season won't open on time. Already no pre-season games, and players getting everything they want if the season is to open on time.
But one last issue -- which is now a "binary deal" -- neither side can come to agreement on this one -- players want full salaries paid regardless of whether season opens, regardless of how many games are actually played, if any. Players want absolutely no pay cuts despite most Americans taking huge pay cuts during the pandemic. The good news: they will still kneel for those less fortunate.MSFT: "blows past Wall Street estimates, earnings boosted by cloud revenue." But shares down after-hours. Link here.
- revenue: $38 billion vs. $35.5 billion expected;
- earnings per share: $1.46 vs. $1.36 expected;
- intelligent Cloud: $13.4 billion vs. $13.1 billion expected
- more personal computing: $12.9 billion vs. $11.5 billion expected
- the story of Microsoft’s growth over the past several years has been its Intelligent Cloud business, which includes its powerful Azure platform;
- in fiscal Q4 2020, Microsoft reported $13.4 billion in revenue from Intelligent Cloud, a 17% increase over the same quarter last year.
Dow finishes up 165 points. Even the NASDAQ, down all day long, ended up 26 points.
Updating DUCs From 3Q19 -- July 22, 2020
Continuing the process of going through the 3Q19 DUCs and updating IPs and production, not previously updated.
The wells:
The wells:
- 35523, 2,381, Hess, EN-Davenport-156-94-1003H-4, Big Butte, t10/19; cum 147K 3/20; remains off line 5/20;
- 35522, 1,602, Hess, EN-Davenport-156-94-1003H-3, Big Butte, t9/19; cum 145K 5/20; did not come off line in 5/20;
- 35521, 2,064, Hess, EN-Davenport-156-94-1003H-2, Big Butte, t10/19; cum 188K 5/20; never came off line in 5/20;
- 35520, 1,372, Hess, EN-Davenport-LE-156-94-1003H-1, Big Butte, t10/19; cum 86K 5/20; never came off line 5/20;
- 35519, 2,064, Hess, EN-Davenport-LE-156-94-1003H-1, Big Butte, t10/19; cum 92K 5/20; did not come off line 5/20;
- 35518, 1,722, Hess, EN-Person-156-94-1102H-5, Big Butte, t10/19; cum 113K 5/20; did not come off line 5/20;
- 35953, 715, RimRock, Two Shields Butte 5-7-8-8H3, Heart Butte, t9/19; cum 143K 4/20; off line 5/20;
- 35517, 2,290, Hess, EN-Person-156-94-1102H-4, Big Butte, t10/19; cum 119K 5/20; did not come off line 5/20;
- 35954, 1,256, RimRock, Two Shields Butte 5-7-8-8H, Heart Butte, t8/19; cum 146K 4/20; off line 5/20;
- 35979, 2,461, Newfield, Sturgeon 150-98-18-19-3H, South Tobacco Garden; t7/19; cum 11K over 5 days extrapolates to 63,576 bbls/30-day month; cum 166K 5/20;
- 36014, 1,218, RimRock, Two Shields Butte 5-7-8-1H3U, Heart Butte, t8/19; cum 156K 4/20; off line 5/20;
- 35222, 3,240, Hess, BB-Federal A-LS-151-95-0915H-6, Blue Buttes, t10/19; cum 232K 5/20; did not come offline 5/20;
- 35811, 2,957, WPX, Ruby 31-30HG, Antelope-Sanish, t7/19; cum 166K 5/20; did not come off line 5/20;
- 36015, 1,681, RimRock, Two Shields Butte 5--24-16H3U, Heart Butte, t8/19; cum 196K 4/20; off line 5/20; (#17981 -- subtle increase, EUR extended; #20511 -- back on line; #19263 -- small increase, EUR extended)
- 35223, 3,000, Hess, BB-Federal A-LS-151-95-0915H-5, Blue Butte, t10/19; cum 87K 5/20, (#18105 - back on line; #18104 -- maybe subtle increase in production; EUR extended)
Off The Net -- Going Swimming -- But Will Leave With This -- July 22, 2020
Link here.
And this: stock market "struggling" to find direction. LOL. The only question in direction is whether it will be "northeast" or "north-northeast."
And this: stock market "struggling" to find direction. LOL. The only question in direction is whether it will be "northeast" or "north-northeast."
Another Nice CLR Wahpeton Well -- July 22, 2020
Another nice CLR Wahpeton well:
- 35914, SI/A, CLR, Wahpeton 16-16H1, 33-053-08890, Banks, t--; cum 116K over 3 months, 7 days; fracked 12/6/2019 - 12/17/2019; 7.143 million gallons of water; water 88.52% by mass; Three Forks first bench; vertical operations required three BHAs; curve build with one BHA, no problems; the lateral was completed with a single BHA; drilled out of the shoe on July 29, 2019; TD reached on August 2, 2019; four days to drill the lateral; background gas, moderate;
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 5-2020 | 31 | 29504 | 29655 | 24396 | 53683 | 53276 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2020 | 30 | 25690 | 25268 | 24697 | 41414 | 41020 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2020 | 31 | 42567 | 43003 | 40235 | 66283 | 66283 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2020 | 7 | 17874 | 17185 | 14630 | 23089 | 22139 | 950 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2020 | 3 | 117 | 117 | 2218 | 758 | 0 | 758 |
North Dakota Mineral Lease Sale, Tracts Posted -- July 28, 2020
ND mineral lease July 28.
Note: in a long list like this, there will be content and typographical errors. If this is important to you, go to the source.
That will load as a PDF: seven pages of tracts.
By acreage per county:
At an average $500/acre = $14 million.
"Hundred-degree weather."
Note: in a long list like this, there will be content and typographical errors. If this is important to you, go to the source.
That will load as a PDF: seven pages of tracts.
By acreage per county:
- Billings County: 3,572.43 acres
- most tracts: 80- and 160-acre
- nominator: Northern Energy Corporation, all tracts
- Burke County: 4,485.45 acres
- most tracts: 80 acres
- nominator: Northern Energy Corporation, all tracts
- Divide County: 6,837.72acres
- most tracts: 80 acres
- nominator: Northern Energy Corporation, all tracts
- Dunn County: 2,147.67 acres
- most tracts: 80 acres
- nominator: Northern Energy Corporation, all tracts
- McKenzie County: 6,952.02 acres
- most tracts: 160 acres
- nominator: Northern Energy Corporation, all tracts
- Mountrail County: 2,776.86 acres
- most tracts: 40- , 80-, and 160-acres
- nominator: Northern Energy Corporation, all tracts
- Williams County: 800 acres
- tracts: four 160-acre tracts and two 80-acre tracts
- nominator: Northern Energy Corporation, all tracts
At an average $500/acre = $14 million.
*************************************
Sophia Biking
"Hundred-degree weather."
EIA Weekly Petroleum Report -- July 22, 2020
North Dakota land quarterly lease, July 28, tracts, at this pdf. Link to "ND mineral auctions" here.
Legacy fund, monthly deposit for July, 2020, posted at this link.
EIA weekly petroleum report at this pdf. Later: with regard to the crude oil inventory, see the comments below.
Crude oil inventory:
Crude oil imports:
Jet fuel delivered:
Legacy fund, monthly deposit for July, 2020, posted at this link.
EIA weekly petroleum report at this pdf. Later: with regard to the crude oil inventory, see the comments below.
- weekly US crude oil supply increased by another eye-brow-raising 4.9 million bbls;
- weekly US crude oil supply now at a whopping 19% greater than the already fat-five-year average; wow;
- crude oil imports average 5.9 million bopd last week, up by 373,000 thousand (sic) -- obviously a mistake -- the US is not importing 373 million bopd -- bopd from the previous week
- US crude oil imports averaged about 6.2 million bopd, 13.5% less than the same four-week period last year;
- refineries are operating at 77.9% of their operable capacity -- pretty much unchanged for the past several weeks;
- jet fuel delivered was down 47.7% compared with same four-week period last year
Crude oil inventory:
Week
|
Date of Report=
|
Change
|
Million Bbls Storage
|
Week 0
|
November 21, 2018
|
4.9
|
446.9
|
Week 1
|
November 28, 2018
|
3.6
|
450.5
|
Week 2
|
December 6, 2018
|
-7.3
|
443.2
|
Week 3
|
December 12, 2018
|
-1.2
|
442.0
|
Week 4
|
December 19, 2018
|
-0.5
|
441.5
|
Week 5
|
December 28, 2018
|
0.0
|
441.4
|
Week 71
|
April 8, 2020
|
15.2
|
484.4
|
Week 72
|
April 15, 2020
|
19.2
|
503.6
|
Week 72
|
April 22, 2020
|
15.0
|
518.6
|
Week 73
|
April 29, 2020
|
9.0
|
527.6
|
Week 74
|
May 6, 2020
|
4.6
|
532.2
|
Week 75
|
May 13, 2020
|
-0.7
|
531.5
|
Week 76
|
May 20, 2020
|
-5.0
|
526.5
|
Week 77
|
May 28, 2020
|
7.9
|
534.4
|
Week 78
|
June 3, 2020
|
-2.1
|
532.3
|
Week 79
|
June 10, 2020
|
5.7
|
538.1
|
Week 80
|
June 17, 2020
|
1.2
|
539.3
|
Week 81
|
June 24, 2020
|
1.4
|
540.7
|
Week 82
|
July 1, 2020
|
-7.2
|
533.5
|
Week 83
|
July 8, 2020
|
5.7
|
539.2
|
Week 84
|
July 15, 2020
|
-7.5
|
531.7
|
Week 85
|
July 22, 2020
|
4.9
|
536.6
|
Crude oil imports:
Crude Oil Imports
|
||||
Week (week-over-week)
|
Date of Report
|
Raw Data, millions of bbls
|
Change (millions of bbls)
|
Four-week period comparison
|
Week 0
|
March 11, 2029
|
6.4
|
0.174
|
|
Week 1
|
March 18, 2020
|
6.5
|
0.127
|
|
Week 2
|
March 25, 2020
|
6.1
|
-0.422
|
|
Week 3
|
April 1, 2020
|
6.0
|
-0.070
|
|
Week 4
|
April 8, 2020
|
5.9
|
-0.173
|
|
Week 5
|
April 15, 2020
|
5.7
|
-0.194
|
|
Week 6
|
April 22, 2020
|
5.6
|
-0.700
|
|
Week 7
|
April 29, 2020
|
5.3
|
0.365
|
-19.700%
|
Week 8
|
May 6, 2020
|
5.7
|
0.410
|
|
Week 9
|
May 13, 2020
|
5.4
|
-0.321
|
-26.100%
|
Week 10
|
May 20, 2020
|
5.2
|
-0.194
|
|
Week 11
|
May 28, 2020
|
7.2
|
2.000
|
-16.400%
|
Week 12
|
June 3, 2020
|
6.2
|
-1.000
|
-18.300%
|
Week 13
|
June 10, 2020
|
6.4
|
0.000
|
-13.300%
|
Week 14
|
June 17, 2020
|
6.6
|
-0.222
|
-10.000%
|
Week 15
|
June 24, 2020
|
6.5
|
-0.102
|
-11.600%
|
Week 16
|
July 1, 2020
|
6.5
|
-0.600
|
-11.300%
|
Week 17
|
July 8, 2020
|
7.4
|
1.400
|
-8.500%
|
Week 18
|
July 15, 2020
|
7.5
|
-1.800
|
-10.200%
|
Week 19
|
July 22, 2020
|
5.9
|
0.373
|
-13.500%
|
Jet fuel delivered:
Jet Fuel Delivered, Change, Four-Week/Four-Week
|
||
Week
|
Date of Report
|
Change
|
Week 0
|
3/7/2020
|
-12.80%
|
Week 1
|
3/14/2020
|
-12.60%
|
Week 2
|
3/21/2020
|
-8.90%
|
Week 3
|
3/28/2020
|
-16.40%
|
Week 4
|
4/4/2020
|
-0.22%
|
Week 5
|
4/11/2020
|
-39.70%
|
Week 6
|
4/18/2020
|
-53.60%
|
Week 7
|
4/24/2020
|
-61.60%
|
Week 8
|
5/1/2020
|
-66.60%
|
Week 9
|
5/8/2020
|
-68.50%
|
Week 10
|
5/15/2020
|
-67.90%
|
Week 11
|
May 22, 2020
|
-66.60%
|
Week 12
|
June 3, 2020
|
-68.70%
|
Week 13
|
June 10, 2020
|
-63.70%
|
Week 14
|
June 17, 2020
|
-62.30%
|
Week 15
|
June 24, 2020
|
-62.50%
|
Week 16
|
July 1, 2020
|
-60.00%
|
Week 17
|
July 8, 2020
|
-57.20%
|
Week 18
|
July 15, 2020
|
-51.90%
|
Week 91
|
July 22, 2020
|
-47.70%
|