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Sunday, July 12, 2020

Notes From All Over -- Nothing About The Bakken -- July 12, 2020

ZeroHedge: I find it quite incredible how "far" ZeroHedge" has come over the past year.

Focus on Fracking: the weekly edition should be posted later this evening.

Cognitive dissonance: Corona cases surge; market continues to surge.

Divergence: the NASDAQ and the Dow.

Director's Cut: scheduled to be released at the end of this week, July 17, 2020, at 3:30 p.m. This is the latest in the month any Director's Cut will be released this year. Kind of ironic, isn't it? Maybe we should just dispense with this month's cut. Do we really want to see it?

4th of July: I completely missed it. Was it celebrated this year?

PGA: where's Tiger Woods?

*******************************
Covid Community

Biking: Sophia is having a blast. Parking lots are empty, streets are empty and she is biking everywhere.


Swimming: I'm out at the apartment complex swimming pool every day and every day the pool looks just like this, except I'm usually in it:


Grilling: t-bone steak, bone-in, incredible:




The Jamestown Federal Wells

The Jamestown Federal well that came off the confidential list yesterday, July 11, 2020:
  • 35926, drl/A, CLR, Jamestown Federal 13-17H, Banks, t--; cum 76K 5/20:
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN5-20203122939230532501125450243850
    BAKKEN4-20203026716267313464130324294050
    BAKKEN3-20203025977255514998028991289910
    BAKKEN2-20200000000
    BAKKEN1-202012612611000
The Jamestown Federal well coming off the confidential list later this week, July 20, 2020:
  • 35912, conf, CLR, Jamestown Federal 14-17HSL1, Banks,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20202910347997
4-20202811842697
3-20203928259146
2-20201231617836
1-20203010
The graphic:


The wells in this graphic:
  • 28202, 1,125, CLR, Jamestown Federal 2-17H, Banks, t3/15; cum 368K 5/20; remained on line through the 2020 meltdown;
  • 28203, 1,040, CLR, Jamestown Federal 3-17H1, Banks, t3/15; cum 282K 5/20; remained on line through the 2020 meltdown;

  • 28604, 1,102, CLR, Jamestown Federal 6-17H, Banks, t1/15; cum 326K 5/20; off line 3/20;
  • 28605, 929, CLR, Jamestown Federal 7-17H, Banks, t3/15; cum 283K 5/20; off line 5/20;

  • 19858, 1,349, CRL, Jamestown 1-17H, Banks, t3/12; cum 365K 5/20; off line 5/20; jump in production 1/15;

  • 26452, IA/1,074, CLR, Jamestown Federal 4-17H1, Banks, t6/15; cum 266K 3/20; off line 3/20;
  • 26453, 989, CLR, Jamestown Federal 5-17H, Banks, t7/15; cum 272K 5/20; remained on line through the 2020 meltdown;

These wells are tracked below:
  • 35928, see below;
  • 35927, see below;
  • 25926, see below;
These wells are tracked below:
  • 35912, see below;
  • 35913, see below;
  • 35914, see below;
  • 25915, see below;
The graphic:


The wells in the graphic:
  • 35928, conf, CLR, Jamestown Federal 11-17H, Banks, producing, a 13K month;
  • 35927, conf, CLR, Jamestown Federal 12-17H1, Banks, producing, an 18K month;
  • 35926, drlA, CLR, Jamestown Federal 13-17H, Banks, producing, cum 76K after 3 months; a 27K month; see above for initial production profile;

  • 35912, conf, CLR, Jamestown Federal 14-17HSL1 Banks, producing, a 39K month; cum 112K after four months; see above for initial production profile;

The Wahpeton wells are tracked here.

  • 35913, conf, CLR, Wahpeton 15-16HSL, Banks, producing, a 51K month; cum 140K after four months;
  • 35914, conf, CLR, Wahpeton 16-16H1, Banks, producing, a 43K month; cum 110K after four months;
  • 35915, SI/A, CLR, Wahpeton, 17-16H, Banks, t--; cum127K after 3 months;

  • 19450, 322, CLR, Wahpeton 1-16H, Banks, t7/11; cum 253K 4/20; off line 5/20;

  • 24837, 652, CLR, Wahpeton 2-16H2, Banks, t6/14; cum 122K 4/20;
  • 24840, 382, CLR, Wahpeton 4-16H1, Banks, t7/14; cum 85K 4/20; off line 5/20;
  • 24842, IA/411, CLR, Wahpeton 5-16H2, Banks, t6/14; cum 69K 2/20; off line 2/20; remains off line 5/20;
  • 24843, 1,050, CLR, Wahpeton 6-16H, Banks, t6/14; cum 176K 4/20; off line 5/20;
  • 24844 IAW/AB/334, CLR, Wahpeton 7-16H3, Banks, t6/14; cum 23K 5/16;

  • 24810, 550, CLR, Wahpeton 8-16H1, Banks, t6/15; cum 138K 4/20; off line 4/20;
  • 24809, 1,786, CLR, Wahpeton 9-16H, Banks, t5/14; cum 221K 4/20; off line 5/20;
  • 24808, IA/IAW/AB/IA/366, CLR, Wahpeton 10-16H2, Banks, t6/14; cum 20K 6/19;
  • 24807, 354, CLR, Wahpeton 11-16H1, Banks, t6/14; cum 101K 4/20; off line 4/20;
  • 24806, A/IAW/AB/1,031 CLR, Wahpeton 12-16H3, Banks, t5/14; cum 17K 3/20; off line 4/20;
  • 24805, 1,612, CLR, Wahpeton 13-16H3, Banks, t5/14; cum 213K 5/20; remains on line in 5/20;
  • 24804, AB/IAW/AB/1,031, CLR, Wahpeton 14-16H2, Banks, t5/14; cum 24K 8/15;

Oasis To Report High-Volume Frack; High Production Joplin Well In The Banks Oil Field -- July 12, 2020

The Oasis Joplin wells are tracked here. 

These are incredible wells -- didn't someone say daughter wells in the Bakken were supposed to be lousy wells?

The well:
  • 35695, conf, Oasis, Joplin 5397 42-32 7B, Banks, 33-053-08811, fracked 11/25/2019 - 12/19/2019; 25 days; 19 million gallons of water; 92.1% water by mass; friction reducer, 0.06916 (high); huge frack; see completion strategies here;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-2020283572
4-20202542580560
3-202040763116291
2-20203682194549
1-20209162289

Re-Designed Website For FracFocus? -- July 12, 2020

I could be wrong but I believe FracFocus has re-designed their website since I last checked in a few weeks ago.

Best link to get to data at FracFocus.

CLR To Report A Huge Wahpeton Well -- July 12, 2020

This is a huge "testament" to the skill of all involved. It sounds they had more than their share of difficulties on this well, and it still came in as a great well! 

The "original" Wahpeton wells came in less remarkable than I expected, but, all of a sudden, we have a great Wahpeton well.

The well:
  • 35913, F/A, CLR, Wahpeton 15-16HSL, Banks, fracked 12/19/2019 - 12/28/2019; 8.5 million gallons (small-to-moderate); 87.8% water by mass; friction reducer not remarkable;Target: middle Bakken;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-20203135697357972361563681636770
BAKKEN4-20203031263312282417547345473410
BAKKEN3-20203150720508433851375713757130
BAKKEN2-202071855718162137122338222896486
BAKKEN1-2020635735755085400540

Of note from the file report:
Salt water disposal wells in this vicinity have caused salt water gain issues in this vicinity when drilling through the disposal formation (Dakota supergroup). A single geologist was tasked with being on site during drilling of the Dakota to verify the top and the base of the Dakota sandstone members, after which the rig ran and cemented 9.625” casing. This well was the second in a line of four and represented an improvement from the problems of the first well. We still suffered losses in the uppermost of the Inyan Kara sands, but upon switching from heavier to lighter brine mud while holding back pressure on the choke, we were able to better control both losses in the uppermost sand and water intrusion from the water disposal layers. The biggest engineering problem came from casing locking in place at the top of the last sand. Cement was pumped into place with the hope that it would return to surface and fill the intervening hole and keep water intrusion from occurring. Both hopes were realized.
Also of note, from the file report:
Bakken shale collapse issues are of lesser, but still manifest, concern in this area, and angles of intercept and shale exposure footage remain important data. Continental engineers have determined that entering the shales should be done at angles no more than 65-68° of inclination. On this well, the Upper Bakken was intercepted at 67.05° and exited at 72.47°, with a total of 48’ of shale exposure. No shale collapse issues occurred.
From the file report:
  • big rig began drilling on the evening of June 7, 2019
  • vertical operations required an amazing six BHAs; generally it is only one, maybe two;
  • sounds like they had challenges landing the curve
  • drilled out of the shoe on the afternoon of July 25, 2019
  • lateral required only one BHA;
A single BHA sufficed to get us through the horizontal section to TD. Unfortunately, due to poor markers and use of the Jamestown 14-17 HSL1 for structural control, which ended up showing a 20’ difference to TD on this well, we ended up in the fog gamma (which locally has more character than generally expected in the basin), and struck the Lower Bakken Shale 256’ from TD. Continental management, rather than sidetracking, decided to call the well complete at that point.
completed on July 27, 2019;
Finally:
The Jamestown Federal 14-17HSL1, previously drilled on this pad, was used for lateral structure control.
Unfortunately, TF1 and Middle Bakken wells are sometimes poorly reconciled, even when close to each other, and the TD points of both wells, well controlled by gamma data, were 20’ different in TVD, which led to a Lower Bakken strike at the end of the well, as mentioned above.
This phenomenon was judged to be a break between Three Forks and Middle Bakken structure, as the same differential downward would occur on the Wahpeton 16-16H1, which had a structure very similar to the Jamestown 14-17HSL1.
How to explain this is unknown currently.
***************************************

From January 27, 2013, we began following these wells. That was seven years ago. They say the daughter wells -- the infill wells in shale plays -- will be significantly worse than the parent wells. Memo to self: new note to Art Berman.


In fact, the initial production numbers above are incredible. I don't think any earlier Wahpeton well even hit 30K any single month. 

One will note that the "original list" did not include #35913. The "original list":
  • 19450, 322, CLR, Wahpeton 1-16H, Banks, t7/11; cum 253K 4/20; off line 5/20;
  • 24843, 1,050, CLR, Wahpeton 6-16H, Banks, t6/14; cum 176K 4/20; off line 5/20;
  • 24809, 1,786, CLR, Wahpeton 9-16H, Banks, t5/14; cum 221K 4/20; off line 5/20;
  • 24840, 382, CLR, Wahpeton 4-16H1, Banks, t7/14; cum 85K 4/20; off line 5/20;
  • 24810, 550, CLR, Wahpeton 8-16H1, Banks, t6/15; cum 138K 4/20; off line 4/20;
  • 24807, 354, CLR, Wahpeton 11-16H1, Banks, t6/14; cum 101K 4/20; off line 4/20;
  • 24837, 652, CLR, Wahpeton 2-16H2, Banks, t6/14; cum 122K 4/20;
  • 24842, IA/411, CLR, Wahpeton 5-16H2, Banks, t6/14; cum 69K 2/20; off line 2/20; remains off line 5/20;
  • 24808, IA/IAW/AB/IA/366, CLR, Wahpeton 10-16H2, Banks, t6/14; cum 20K 6/19;
  • 24804, AB/IAW/AB/1,031, CLR, Wahpeton 14-16H2, Banks, t5/14; cum 24K 8/15;
  • 24838, TA, CLR, Wahpeton 3-16H3, Banks, no production;
  • 24844, IAW/AB/334, CLR, Wahpeton 7-16H3, Banks, t6/14; cum 23K 5/16;
  • 24806, A/IAW/AB/1,031 CLR, Wahpeton 12-16H3, Banks, t5/14; cum 17K 3/20; off line 4/20;
  • 24805, 1,612, CLR, Wahpeton 13-16H3, Banks, t5/14; cum 213K 5/20; remains on line in 5/20;

Notes From All Over -- Early Sunday Morning -- All Business -- July 12, 2020

Corona virus: consider the source, but some are suggesting New York is well on its way to "herd immunity with a 21% infection rate and an existing, circulating natural immunity of 40%, giving New Yorkers a 61% move toward herd immunity. 

Hubris, chutzpah, presumption + arrogance; entitled: Minnesota governor asks for $500 million in FEMA aid following sanctioned rioting. Denied! Link here. Assessment suggested about $15 million in damage assessed (so far) which suggests the $500 million requested was going to be used for a bit more than a few fires in downtown Minneapolis where some people did some things. Fortunately, the protests were mostly peaceful:

 
Reminder: National French Fry Day -- free French fries -- McDonald's. 

PGA: holy mackerel! A Norwegian, Viktor Hovland, leads the PGA tournament today. He qualified for the tournament only this week -- last Monday. This is huge for this Norwegian. Will change his life. Later, 2:14 p.m. CDT: apparently the tournament is over, but CBS has just started coverage, tape delay, and about eight holes behind "real time." Victor Hovland placed third. The top two went into a playoff, tied at the end of regulation play. It looks like they have a three-hole playoff -- Justin Thomas vs Collin Morikawa. It looks like Collin Morikawa won, but it's hard to tell. They don't show strokes for Justin Thomas on the third playoff hole but Morikawa made par at four suggesting that Thomas was putting for at least a one-over bogey. Talk about miserable coverage. Even a "live" tournament is being broadcast as a "tape delay." By the way, this was done due to network programming. The tournament started early to "beat the rain," and the networks weren't able to change their schedule -- of course, due to advertising contracts.

Racing: holy mackerel! Two huge wrecks before we even complete the first curve of the first lap of the Indy race today -- and neither involved rookies -- Hunter-Reay and Rossi involved, but it appears Hunter-Reay and Rossi are still in. USAF car heavily damaged. Wow. 11:46 a.m. CDT, NBCSports.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

How Covid-19 changes things:
  • think Warren Buffett and NetJets; private aviation surging;
  • US credit card debt plunges; top three expenses on American credit cards: gasoline, restaurants, and travel; all three crashing; revolving credit debt lowest since the great recession; huge story; another red flag for banks; Warren Buffett's equity portfolio: over-weighted in banks;
  • automobile sales plummeting; folks without jobs aren't buying cars; Tesla drops price on Model Y by $3,000; still too expensive for folks without jobs;
  • drive-in concerts: I was going to ignore this story until I saw the "headliner": a Garth Brooks performance on June 27 that drew over 350,000 across more than 300 drive-in theaters across North America -- this is a huge story -- mostly because those of us who can't afford Las Vegas can now see some great acts "live." Yes, this is huge, and I think it continues for quite some time; acts were looking for a way to compete with pirated streaming; think heavyweight boxing on steroids;
  • BOATING! Google it! Booming during the pandemic! Wow. 
What the Norwegians want: AAPL, ATT, and Gilead

The doomsday chronicles:
Blog:
From twitter / ZeroHedge today:


Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- July 12, 2020

The wells:
  • 35912, conf, CLR, Jamestown Federal 14-17HSL1, Banks,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20202910347997
4-20202811842697
3-20203928259146
2-20201231617836
1-20203010
  • 35695, conf, Oasis, Joplin 5397 42-32 7B, Banks,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-2020283572
4-20202542580560
3-202040763116291
2-20203682194549
1-20209162289
  • 37267, conf, CLR, Rodney 4-20HSL1, Big Gulch, no production data, 
  • 36488, conf, Hess, TI-Stenbak-158-95-2526H-2, Tioga,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-2020156075888
4-20201346318741
3-20201184414565
2-20201269016111
1-20201197513112
  • 36391, conf, Whiting, Ogden 12-3-3H, Sanish,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20201393016289
4-20201712718921
3-20202126714557
2-2020227460
1-202029990
  • 35913, conf, CLR, Wahpeton 15-16HSL, Banks,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20203579763677
4-20203122847341
3-20205084375713
2-20201816222896
1-20203570
  • 36950, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-8A-31-2H, Charlson, no production data, 
  • 37260, drl/IA, BR, CCU Pacific Express 32-19TFH-R,  Corral Creek, t--; cum --;  
  • 36507, SI/A, Whiting, Rauser 11-28-1H, Pembroke,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-20203116767168351483334940953425406
BAKKEN4-202030208302080921407473369747216
BAKKEN3-202020153201532316842339251434519547
BAKKEN2-20202929643298723240973980716382293
BAKKEN1-202020342433381951412765524929227216
  • 36216, drl/IA, XTO, Allie 31X-24A, Capa, 
  • 36388, SI/A, Whiting, Ogden 11-3HU, Alger,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-202095519549622214840475479
BAKKEN4-2020952425354177551605039114
BAKKEN3-2020312621326272507127848229894833
BAKKEN2-2020282343023344992618347018326
BAKKEN1-202011968495885556780607790
  • 36217, SI/NC, XTO, Allie 31X-24EXH, Capa, 
  • 35926, drl/A, CLR, Jamestown Federal 13-17H, Banks,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-20203122939230532501125450243850
BAKKEN4-20203026716267313464130324294050
BAKKEN3-20203025977255514998028991289910
BAKKEN2-20200000000
BAKKEN1-202012612611000
  • 31522, SI/A, CLR, Steele Federal 8-24H1, Banks,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-20203125991261052471081919815120
BAKKEN4-20202938321382723257783062827090
BAKKEN3-20202226254261472639038714387140
BAKKEN2-2020292804828236199475089350381512
BAKKEN1-20201317158167831922931848283273521
  • 29470, drl/NC, Hess, TI-Beauty Valley-158-95-1423H-2, Tioga,

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- July 12, 2020

Monday, July 20, 2020: 50 for the month; 50 for the quarter, 496 for the year:
35912, conf, CLR, Jamestown Federal 14-17HSL1, 
35695, conf, Oasis, Joplin 5397 42-32 7B, 

Sunday, July 19, 2020: 48 for the month; 48 for the quarter, 494 for the year:
37267, conf, CLR, Rodney 4-20HSL1,

Saturday, July 18, 2020: 47 for the month; 47 for the quarter, 493 for the year:
None.

Friday, July 17, 2020: 47 for the month; 47 for the quarter, 493 for the year:
36488, conf, Hess, TI-Stenbak-158-95-2526H-2, 
36391, conf, Whiting, Ogden 12-3-3H, 

Thursday, July 16, 2020: 45 for the month; 45 for the quarter, 491 for the year:
35913, conf, CLR, Wahpeton 15-16HSL, see this note;

Wednesday, July 15, 2020: 44 for the month; 44 for the quarter, 490 for the year:
None.

Tuesday, July 14, 2020: 44 for the month; 44 for the quarter, 490 for the year:
36950, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-8A-31-2H,

Monday, July 13, 2020: 43 for the month; 43 for the quarter, 489 for the year:
None.

Sunday, July 12, 2020: 43 for the month; 43 for the quarter, 489 for the year:
37260, conf, BR, CCU Pacific Express 32-19TFH-R
36507, conf, Whiting, Rauser 11-28-1H, 
36216, conf, XTO, Allie 31X-24A, 

Saturday, July 11, 2020: 40 for the month; 40 for the quarter, 486 for the year:
36388, conf, Whiting, Ogden 11-3HU, 
36217, conf, XTO, Allie 31X-24EXH, 
35926, conf, CLR, Jamestown Federal 13-17H, 
31522, conf, CLR, Steele Federal 8-24H1
29470, conf, Hess, TI-Beauty Valley-158-95-1423H-2,