Notes From All Over -- Nothing About The Bakken -- July 12, 2020

ZeroHedge: I find it quite incredible how "far" ZeroHedge" has come over the past year.

Focus on Fracking: the weekly edition should be posted later this evening.

Cognitive dissonance: Corona cases surge; market continues to surge.

Divergence: the NASDAQ and the Dow.

Director's Cut: scheduled to be released at the end of this week, July 17, 2020, at 3:30 p.m. This is the latest in the month any Director's Cut will be released this year. Kind of ironic, isn't it? Maybe we should just dispense with this month's cut. Do we really want to see it?

4th of July: I completely missed it. Was it celebrated this year?

PGA: where's Tiger Woods?

*******************************

Covid Community

Biking: Sophia is having a blast. Parking lots are empty, streets are empty and she is biking everywhere.

Swimming: I'm out at the apartment complex swimming pool every day and every day the pool looks just like this, except I'm usually in it:

Grilling: t-bone steak, bone-in, incredible:

The Jamestown Federal Wells

The Jamestown Federal well that came off the confidential list yesterday, July 11, 2020:

• 35926, drl/A, CLR, Jamestown Federal 13-17H, Banks, t--; cum 76K 5/20:
  

  Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
  BAKKEN	5-2020	31	22939	23053	25011	25450	24385	0
  BAKKEN	4-2020	30	26716	26731	34641	30324	29405	0
  BAKKEN	3-2020	30	25977	25551	49980	28991	28991	0
  BAKKEN	2-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
  BAKKEN	1-2020	1	261	261	1	0	0	0

The Jamestown Federal well coming off the confidential list later this week, July 20, 2020:

• 35912, conf, CLR, Jamestown Federal 14-17HSL1, Banks,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
5-2020	29103	47997
4-2020	28118	42697
3-2020	39282	59146
2-2020	12316	17836
1-2020	301	0

The graphic:

The wells in this graphic:

• 28202, 1,125, CLR, Jamestown Federal 2-17H, Banks, t3/15; cum 368K 5/20; remained on line through the 2020 meltdown;
• 28203, 1,040, CLR, Jamestown Federal 3-17H1, Banks, t3/15; cum 282K 5/20; remained on line through the 2020 meltdown;

• 28604, 1,102, CLR, Jamestown Federal 6-17H, Banks, t1/15; cum 326K 5/20; off line 3/20;
• 28605, 929, CLR, Jamestown Federal 7-17H, Banks, t3/15; cum 283K 5/20; off line 5/20;

• 19858, 1,349, CRL, Jamestown 1-17H, Banks, t3/12; cum 365K 5/20; off line 5/20; jump in production 1/15;

• 26452, IA/1,074, CLR, Jamestown Federal 4-17H1, Banks, t6/15; cum 266K 3/20; off line 3/20;
• 26453, 989, CLR, Jamestown Federal 5-17H, Banks, t7/15; cum 272K 5/20; remained on line through the 2020 meltdown;

These wells are tracked below:

• 35928, see below;
• 35927, see below;
• 25926, see below;

These wells are tracked below:

• 35912, see below;
• 35913, see below;
• 35914, see below;
• 25915, see below;

The graphic:

The wells in the graphic:

• 35928, conf, CLR, Jamestown Federal 11-17H, Banks, producing, a 13K month;
• 35927, conf, CLR, Jamestown Federal 12-17H1, Banks, producing, an 18K month;
• 35926, drlA, CLR, Jamestown Federal 13-17H, Banks, producing, cum 76K after 3 months; a 27K month; see above for initial production profile;
  

• 35912, conf, CLR, Jamestown Federal 14-17HSL1 Banks, producing, a 39K month; cum 112K after four months; see above for initial production profile;

The Wahpeton wells are tracked here.

• 35913, conf, CLR, Wahpeton 15-16HSL, Banks, producing, a 51K month; cum 140K after four months;
• 35914, conf, CLR, Wahpeton 16-16H1, Banks, producing, a 43K month; cum 110K after four months;
• 35915, SI/A, CLR, Wahpeton, 17-16H, Banks, t--; cum127K after 3 months;

• 19450, 322, CLR, Wahpeton 1-16H, Banks, t7/11; cum 253K 4/20; off line 5/20;

• 24837, 652, CLR, Wahpeton 2-16H2, Banks, t6/14; cum 122K 4/20;
• 24840, 382, CLR, Wahpeton 4-16H1, Banks, t7/14; cum 85K 4/20; off line 5/20;
• 24842, IA/411, CLR, Wahpeton 5-16H2, Banks, t6/14; cum 69K 2/20; off line 2/20; remains off line 5/20;
• 24843, 1,050, CLR, Wahpeton 6-16H, Banks, t6/14; cum 176K 4/20; off line 5/20;
• 24844 IAW/AB/334, CLR, Wahpeton 7-16H3, Banks, t6/14; cum 23K 5/16;

• 24810, 550, CLR, Wahpeton 8-16H1, Banks, t6/15; cum 138K 4/20; off line 4/20;
• 24809, 1,786, CLR, Wahpeton 9-16H, Banks, t5/14; cum 221K 4/20; off line 5/20;
• 24808, IA/IAW/AB/IA/366, CLR, Wahpeton 10-16H2, Banks, t6/14; cum 20K 6/19;
• 24807, 354, CLR, Wahpeton 11-16H1, Banks, t6/14; cum 101K 4/20; off line 4/20;
• 24806, A/IAW/AB/1,031 CLR, Wahpeton 12-16H3, Banks, t5/14; cum 17K 3/20; off line 4/20;
• 24805, 1,612, CLR, Wahpeton 13-16H3, Banks, t5/14; cum 213K 5/20; remains on line in 5/20;
• 24804, AB/IAW/AB/1,031, CLR, Wahpeton 14-16H2, Banks, t5/14; cum 24K 8/15;

Oasis To Report High-Volume Frack; High Production Joplin Well In The Banks Oil Field -- July 12, 2020

The Oasis Joplin wells are tracked here. 

These are incredible wells -- didn't someone say daughter wells in the Bakken were supposed to be lousy wells?

The well:

• 35695, conf, Oasis, Joplin 5397 42-32 7B, Banks, 33-053-08811, fracked 11/25/2019 - 12/19/2019; 25 days; 19 million gallons of water; 92.1% water by mass; friction reducer, 0.06916 (high); huge frack; see completion strategies here;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
5-2020	283	572
4-2020	25425	80560
3-2020	40763	116291
2-2020	36821	94549
1-2020	916	2289

Re-Designed Website For FracFocus? -- July 12, 2020

I could be wrong but I believe FracFocus has re-designed their website since I last checked in a few weeks ago.

Best link to get to data at FracFocus.

CLR To Report A Huge Wahpeton Well -- July 12, 2020

This is a huge "testament" to the skill of all involved. It sounds they had more than their share of difficulties on this well, and it still came in as a great well! 

The "original" Wahpeton wells came in less remarkable than I expected, but, all of a sudden, we have a great Wahpeton well.

The well:

• 35913, F/A, CLR, Wahpeton 15-16HSL, Banks, fracked 12/19/2019 - 12/28/2019; 8.5 million gallons (small-to-moderate); 87.8% water by mass; friction reducer not remarkable;Target: middle Bakken;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2020	31	35697	35797	23615	63681	63677	0
BAKKEN	4-2020	30	31263	31228	24175	47345	47341	0
BAKKEN	3-2020	31	50720	50843	38513	75713	75713	0
BAKKEN	2-2020	7	18557	18162	13712	23382	22896	486
BAKKEN	1-2020	6	357	357	5508	540	0	540

Of note from the file report:

Salt water disposal wells in this vicinity have caused salt water gain issues in this vicinity when drilling through the disposal formation (Dakota supergroup). A single geologist was tasked with being on site during drilling of the Dakota to verify the top and the base of the Dakota sandstone members, after which the rig ran and cemented 9.625” casing. This well was the second in a line of four and represented an improvement from the problems of the first well. We still suffered losses in the uppermost of the Inyan Kara sands, but upon switching from heavier to lighter brine mud while holding back pressure on the choke, we were able to better control both losses in the uppermost sand and water intrusion from the water disposal layers. The biggest engineering problem came from casing locking in place at the top of the last sand. Cement was pumped into place with the hope that it would return to surface and fill the intervening hole and keep water intrusion from occurring. Both hopes were realized.

Also of note, from the file report:

Bakken shale collapse issues are of lesser, but still manifest, concern in this area, and angles of intercept and shale exposure footage remain important data. Continental engineers have determined that entering the shales should be done at angles no more than 65-68° of inclination. On this well, the Upper Bakken was intercepted at 67.05° and exited at 72.47°, with a total of 48’ of shale exposure. No shale collapse issues occurred.

From the file report:

• big rig began drilling on the evening of June 7, 2019
• vertical operations required an amazing six BHAs; generally it is only one, maybe two;
• sounds like they had challenges landing the curve
• drilled out of the shoe on the afternoon of July 25, 2019
• lateral required only one BHA;

A single BHA sufficed to get us through the horizontal section to TD. Unfortunately, due to poor markers and use of the Jamestown 14-17 HSL1 for structural control, which ended up showing a 20’ difference to TD on this well, we ended up in the fog gamma (which locally has more character than generally expected in the basin), and struck the Lower Bakken Shale 256’ from TD. Continental management, rather than sidetracking, decided to call the well complete at that point.
completed on July 27, 2019;

Finally:

The Jamestown Federal 14-17HSL1, previously drilled on this pad, was used for lateral structure control.

Unfortunately, TF1 and Middle Bakken wells are sometimes poorly reconciled, even when close to each other, and the TD points of both wells, well controlled by gamma data, were 20’ different in TVD, which led to a Lower Bakken strike at the end of the well, as mentioned above.

This phenomenon was judged to be a break between Three Forks and Middle Bakken structure, as the same differential downward would occur on the Wahpeton 16-16H1, which had a structure very similar to the Jamestown 14-17HSL1.

How to explain this is unknown currently.

***************************************

From January 27, 2013, we began following these wells. That was seven years ago. They say the daughter wells -- the infill wells in shale plays -- will be significantly worse than the parent wells. Memo to self: new note to Art Berman.

In fact, the initial production numbers above are incredible. I don't think any earlier Wahpeton well even hit 30K any single month. 

One will note that the "original list" did not include #35913. The "original list":

• 19450, 322, CLR, Wahpeton 1-16H, Banks, t7/11; cum 253K 4/20; off line 5/20;
• 24843, 1,050, CLR, Wahpeton 6-16H, Banks, t6/14; cum 176K 4/20; off line 5/20;

• 24809, 1,786, CLR, Wahpeton 9-16H, Banks, t5/14; cum 221K 4/20; off line 5/20;
• 24840, 382, CLR, Wahpeton 4-16H1, Banks, t7/14; cum 85K 4/20; off line 5/20;
• 24810, 550, CLR, Wahpeton 8-16H1, Banks, t6/15; cum 138K 4/20; off line 4/20;
• 24807, 354, CLR, Wahpeton 11-16H1, Banks, t6/14; cum 101K 4/20; off line 4/20;
• 24837, 652, CLR, Wahpeton 2-16H2, Banks, t6/14; cum 122K 4/20;
• 24842, IA/411, CLR, Wahpeton 5-16H2, Banks, t6/14; cum 69K 2/20; off line 2/20; remains off line 5/20;
• 24808, IA/IAW/AB/IA/366, CLR, Wahpeton 10-16H2, Banks, t6/14; cum 20K 6/19;
• 24804, AB/IAW/AB/1,031, CLR, Wahpeton 14-16H2, Banks, t5/14; cum 24K 8/15;
• 24838, TA, CLR, Wahpeton 3-16H3, Banks, no production;
• 24844, IAW/AB/334, CLR, Wahpeton 7-16H3, Banks, t6/14; cum 23K 5/16;
• 24806, A/IAW/AB/1,031 CLR, Wahpeton 12-16H3, Banks, t5/14; cum 17K 3/20; off line 4/20;
• 24805, 1,612, CLR, Wahpeton 13-16H3, Banks, t5/14; cum 213K 5/20; remains on line in 5/20;

Notes From All Over -- Early Sunday Morning -- All Business -- July 12, 2020

Corona virus: consider the source, but some are suggesting New York is well on its way to "herd immunity with a 21% infection rate and an existing, circulating natural immunity of 40%, giving New Yorkers a 61% move toward herd immunity. 

Hubris, chutzpah, presumption + arrogance; entitled: Minnesota governor asks for $500 million in FEMA aid following sanctioned rioting. Denied! Link here. Assessment suggested about $15 million in damage assessed (so far) which suggests the $500 million requested was going to be used for a bit more than a few fires in downtown Minneapolis where some people did some things. Fortunately, the protests were mostly peaceful:

 
Reminder: National French Fry Day -- free French fries -- McDonald's. 

PGA: holy mackerel! A Norwegian, Viktor Hovland, leads the PGA tournament today. He qualified for the tournament only this week -- last Monday. This is huge for this Norwegian. Will change his life. Later, 2:14 p.m. CDT: apparently the tournament is over, but CBS has just started coverage, tape delay, and about eight holes behind "real time." Victor Hovland placed third. The top two went into a playoff, tied at the end of regulation play. It looks like they have a three-hole playoff -- Justin Thomas vs Collin Morikawa. It looks like Collin Morikawa won, but it's hard to tell. They don't show strokes for Justin Thomas on the third playoff hole but Morikawa made par at four suggesting that Thomas was putting for at least a one-over bogey. Talk about miserable coverage. Even a "live" tournament is being broadcast as a "tape delay." By the way, this was done due to network programming. The tournament started early to "beat the rain," and the networks weren't able to change their schedule -- of course, due to advertising contracts.

Racing: holy mackerel! Two huge wrecks before we even complete the first curve of the first lap of the Indy race today -- and neither involved rookies -- Hunter-Reay and Rossi involved, but it appears Hunter-Reay and Rossi are still in. USAF car heavily damaged. Wow. 11:46 a.m. CDT, NBCSports.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

How Covid-19 changes things:

• think Warren Buffett and NetJets; private aviation surging;
• great move, March 30, 2019; 
• less than a year later, private aviation sees demand surge during pandemic;
• US credit card debt plunges; top three expenses on American credit cards: gasoline, restaurants, and travel; all three crashing; revolving credit debt lowest since the great recession; huge story; another red flag for banks; Warren Buffett's equity portfolio: over-weighted in banks;
• automobile sales plummeting; folks without jobs aren't buying cars; Tesla drops price on Model Y by $3,000; still too expensive for folks without jobs;
• drive-in concerts: I was going to ignore this story until I saw the "headliner": a Garth Brooks performance on June 27 that drew over 350,000 across more than 300 drive-in theaters across North America -- this is a huge story -- mostly because those of us who can't afford Las Vegas can now see some great acts "live." Yes, this is huge, and I think it continues for quite some time; acts were looking for a way to compete with pirated streaming; think heavyweight boxing on steroids;
• BOATING! Google it! Booming during the pandemic! Wow. 

What the Norwegians want: AAPL, ATT, and Gilead

The doomsday chronicles:

• New Jersey will borrow $10 billion just to pay current bills; well, technically, only $9.9 billion
• Doomsday: US states;

Blog:

• behind the scenes at IMDb, blog.aboutAmazon.com;

From twitter / ZeroHedge today:

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- July 12, 2020

The wells:

• 35912, conf, CLR, Jamestown Federal 14-17HSL1, Banks,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
5-2020	29103	47997
4-2020	28118	42697
3-2020	39282	59146
2-2020	12316	17836
1-2020	301	0

• 35695, conf, Oasis, Joplin 5397 42-32 7B, Banks,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
5-2020	283	572
4-2020	25425	80560
3-2020	40763	116291
2-2020	36821	94549
1-2020	916	2289

• 37267, conf, CLR, Rodney 4-20HSL1, Big Gulch, no production data, 
• 36488, conf, Hess, TI-Stenbak-158-95-2526H-2, Tioga,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
5-2020	15607	5888
4-2020	13463	18741
3-2020	11844	14565
2-2020	12690	16111
1-2020	11975	13112

• 36391, conf, Whiting, Ogden 12-3-3H, Sanish,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
5-2020	13930	16289
4-2020	17127	18921
3-2020	21267	14557
2-2020	22746	0
1-2020	2999	0

• 35913, conf, CLR, Wahpeton 15-16HSL, Banks,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
5-2020	35797	63677
4-2020	31228	47341
3-2020	50843	75713
2-2020	18162	22896
1-2020	357	0

• 36950, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-8A-31-2H, Charlson, no production data, 
• 37260, drl/IA, BR, CCU Pacific Express 32-19TFH-R,  Corral Creek, t--; cum --;  
• 36507, SI/A, Whiting, Rauser 11-28-1H, Pembroke,

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2020	31	16767	16835	14833	34940	9534	25406
BAKKEN	4-2020	30	20830	20809	21407	47336	97	47216
BAKKEN	3-2020	20	15320	15323	16842	33925	14345	19547
BAKKEN	2-2020	29	29643	29872	32409	73980	71638	2293
BAKKEN	1-2020	20	34243	33819	51412	76552	49292	27216

• 36216, drl/IA, XTO, Allie 31X-24A, Capa, 
• 36388, SI/A, Whiting, Ogden 11-3HU, Alger,

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2020	9	5519	5496	2221	4840	4754	79
BAKKEN	4-2020	9	5242	5354	1775	5160	5039	114
BAKKEN	3-2020	31	26213	26272	5071	27848	22989	4833
BAKKEN	2-2020	28	23430	23344	9926	18347	0	18326
BAKKEN	1-2020	11	9684	9588	5556	7806	0	7790

• 36217, SI/NC, XTO, Allie 31X-24EXH, Capa, 
• 35926, drl/A, CLR, Jamestown Federal 13-17H, Banks,

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2020	31	22939	23053	25011	25450	24385	0
BAKKEN	4-2020	30	26716	26731	34641	30324	29405	0
BAKKEN	3-2020	30	25977	25551	49980	28991	28991	0
BAKKEN	2-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2020	1	261	261	1	0	0	0

• 31522, SI/A, CLR, Steele Federal 8-24H1, Banks,

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2020	31	25991	26105	24710	81919	81512	0
BAKKEN	4-2020	29	38321	38272	32577	83062	82709	0
BAKKEN	3-2020	22	26254	26147	26390	38714	38714	0
BAKKEN	2-2020	29	28048	28236	19947	50893	50381	512
BAKKEN	1-2020	13	17158	16783	19229	31848	28327	3521

• 29470, drl/NC, Hess, TI-Beauty Valley-158-95-1423H-2, Tioga,

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- July 12, 2020

Monday, July 20, 2020: 50 for the month; 50 for the quarter, 496 for the year:
35912, conf, CLR, Jamestown Federal 14-17HSL1, 
35695, conf, Oasis, Joplin 5397 42-32 7B, 

Sunday, July 19, 2020: 48 for the month; 48 for the quarter, 494 for the year:
37267, conf, CLR, Rodney 4-20HSL1,

Saturday, July 18, 2020: 47 for the month; 47 for the quarter, 493 for the year:
None.

Friday, July 17, 2020: 47 for the month; 47 for the quarter, 493 for the year:
36488, conf, Hess, TI-Stenbak-158-95-2526H-2, 
36391, conf, Whiting, Ogden 12-3-3H, 

Thursday, July 16, 2020: 45 for the month; 45 for the quarter, 491 for the year:
35913, conf, CLR, Wahpeton 15-16HSL, see this note;

Wednesday, July 15, 2020: 44 for the month; 44 for the quarter, 490 for the year:
None.

Tuesday, July 14, 2020: 44 for the month; 44 for the quarter, 490 for the year:
36950, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-8A-31-2H,

Monday, July 13, 2020: 43 for the month; 43 for the quarter, 489 for the year:
None.

Sunday, July 12, 2020: 43 for the month; 43 for the quarter, 489 for the year:
37260, conf, BR, CCU Pacific Express 32-19TFH-R, 
36507, conf, Whiting, Rauser 11-28-1H, 
36216, conf, XTO, Allie 31X-24A, 

Saturday, July 11, 2020: 40 for the month; 40 for the quarter, 486 for the year:
36388, conf, Whiting, Ogden 11-3HU, 
36217, conf, XTO, Allie 31X-24EXH, 
35926, conf, CLR, Jamestown Federal 13-17H, 
31522, conf, CLR, Steele Federal 8-24H1, 
29470, conf, Hess, TI-Beauty Valley-158-95-1423H-2,