This Might Just Be The Biggest Story Of The Week -- May 7, 2020

Update

May 8, 2020: Military Times sheds more light on this story. Apparently the US has had two Patriot missile batteries, fighters and US military personnel in Saudi for a long time. After recent attacks on US military personnel inside Saudi Arabia, the Trump administration added two additional Patriot missile batteries, fighters and US military personnel. It is this buildup -- the two additional missile batteries and the additional fighters that were sent over to bolster US defenses that Trump is now removing. Maybe not as big a story as originally posted. Hard to say.

 

Original Post

 
Re-posting:

Saudi Arabia is in deep doo-doo: I haven't read the story yet, but I saw the headline -- "US to withdraw Patriot missiles from Saudi Arabia over oil dispute." Think about that. Then think about this post: someone compared those photos of the ULCCs and VLCCs off the coast of California to our "sitting ducks" at Pearl Harbor in 1941.

The decision, if accurate, to remove Patriot missiles from Saudi Arabia didn't happen overnight. Obviously our SecDef (whoever that might be; I've long forgotten) and SecState Pompeo have been discussing US options with their Saudi counterparts for sometime, now.

If Saudi was given a heads-up that we might pull our Patriot missiles out of Saudi Arabia -- wow -- that on-shore storage in the desert would have looked even more like "sitting ducks." No wonder Prince MbS emptied his on-shore storage and put it out of harms' way in ULCCs and VLCCs off the coast of California. This is absolutely fascinating. 

Fastest way to move oil to $100/bbl: a real shooting war in the Mideast.

Iran: re-calculating, re-calculating, re-calculating. 

Israel: watching closely. Maybe time to take out a nuclear facility -- the tea leaves suggest Iran has reached the "tipping point" with regard to going it alone, and ready to take the next step.

To me, things just seem way too quiet in the Mideast with all that is going on.

Again, as I said in an earlier post along this same line: these comments are completely random, unlikely, impossible to be true, but it would be interesting to bring this up at the deli at Cash Wise Foods in Williston, where I always had lunch with my dad when visiting.

This is just some random, crazy thinking. Crazy thinking. But it's been a crazy year.

BR's Monster Rink/Kermit Wells Have Been Updated -- May 7, 2020

These are incredible wells; tracked here.

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In Other Non-Bakken News

No links; stories easily found. Normally one might find these stories after the close of business, Friday night. But all of a sudden --- on a Thursday -- apparently folks are getting tired of hearing nothing but Wuhan flu.

• DOJ suddenly drops case against Flynn.
• Senate fails to override president's veto on Iran war powers.
• Texas salon owner freed after order from state Supreme Court.
• RBG takes Ninth Circuit to law school in reversal of immigration case.
• Coronavirus case fatality ratio may be 10 to 40x less severe than advertised; no worse, maybe less worse than seasonal flu.
• Vitamin D is the answer. 

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Caveman Grilling

I've talked about caveman grilling before. Here's a  link to a "professional."

I don't know what it is about Americans -- they love to take pictures of their food. I'm no exception. LOL.

Whatever.

I cooked a t-bone steak directly on FOGO tonight. Do NOT cook directly on "standard" briquets. Wow, it turned out well.

Steak at room temperature. No olive oil or vegetable oil; putting vegetable oil directly on FOGO and you have a syrupy mess. Only a very, very simply kosher salt and pepper rub. 

One-inch thick t-bone (pretty thin for real men but that's what was on sale today; $20-t-bone for $8): 2 1/2 minutes on each side, and then 15 minutes wrapped tightly in aluminum foil.

Just slightly more cooked than medium rare; if I were to do this size-steak again, I would grill each side for 2 minutes, maybe 2 1/4 minutes, but definitely a bit less than 2 1/2 minutes. That's how fast these things cook directly on FOGO.

Incredible.

The flame at the top of the picture was simply a bit of fat on fire. Didn't amount to anything (see next photo) but the fire was controlled/extinguished by simply closing all vents for about 15 seconds.

Petro-Hunt With Three New Permits In East Tioga Oil Field -- May 7, 2020

OPEC basket, link here: $22.40.

EOG: 1Q20 quarterly results.

MDU: 1Q20 quarterly results.

Saudi Arabia is in deep doo-doo: I haven't read the story yet, but I saw the headline -- "US to withdraw Patriot missiles from Saudi Arabia over oil dispute." Think about that. Then think about this post: someone compared those photos of the ULCCs and VLCCs off the coast of California to our "sitting ducks" at Pearl Harbor in 1941.

The decision, if accurate, to remove Patriot missiles from Saudi Arabia didn't happen overnight. Obviously our SecDef (whoever that might be; I've long forgotten) and SecState Pompeo have been discussing our options with their Saudi counterparts for sometime, now.

If Saudi was given a heads-up that we might pull our Patriot missiles out of Saudi Arabia -- wow -- that on-shore storage in the desert looks even more like "sitting ducks." No wonder Prince MbS emptied his on-shore storage and put it out of harms' way on ULCCs and VLCCs off the coast of California. This is absolutely fascinating. 

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Back to the Bakken

Daily activity report not posted by NDIC today.

Active rigs (history of ND rig counts at this post):

$23.87	5/7/2020	05/07/2019	05/07/2018	05/07/2017	05/07/2016
Active Rigs	20	64	61	49	27

Three new permits, #37564 - #37566 (NDIC daily activity report in error), inclusive --

• Operator: Petro-Hunt
• Field: East Tioga (Mountrail)
• Comments: 
• Petro-Hunt has permits for a Jorgenson/Johnson permit in SESE 11-158-94, East Tioga oil field, all about 375 FSL; all 840 FEL;

Six permits renewed:

• XTO: four Jorgenson Federal permits and two Johnsrud permits, all in McKenzie County.

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 36661, drl/A, MRO, Thoen 41-28H, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 128K in less than 3 months;
• 36662, drl/A, MRO, Doven 11-25TFH, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 90K in less than 3 months;
• 36789, SI/A, MRO, Oates 21-27H, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 125K in less than 3 months;

Tracking Completed DUCsThat Don't Report An IP in Bakken 4.0 -- An Interim Update -- May 7, 2020

Over at the sidebar at the right, I have a link to a post where I track DUCs that are reported but continue to report no IP. This is an interim update. This page will not be update, now will the linked post. I will provide interim updates.

These are only a few of the wells; I don't have time to post all of them:

• 36261, drl/A, WPX, Mandaree Warrior 14-11HA, Squaw Creek, t--; cum 21K in 40 days; first full month extrapolates to 51,242 bbls;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2020	12	20497	20654	11550	22916	10853	9706
BAKKEN	2-2020	28	808	523	48	86	0	0

• 36260, drl/A, WPX, Mandaree Warrior 14-11HX, Squaw Creek, t--; cum --; first full month extrapolates to 68,729 bbls;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2020	11	24388	24235	17840	27265	11000	13656
BAKKEN	2-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

• 36463, drl/A, WPX, Mandaree Warrior 14-11HUL, Mandaree, t--; cum --; first full month extrapolates to 65,751 bbls; 

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2020	15	31815	31571	11290	35569	0	32165
BAKKEN	2-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

•  34600, drl, MRO, Verne USA 24-21TFH, Reunion Bay, see this post;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2020	29	34302	34593	45240	37114	0	34797
BAKKEN	2-2020	16	45219	44676	58995	45660	0	42648

• 34601, drl, MRO, Salveson USA 24-21H, Reunion Bay,

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2020	29	46754	46820	44990	52652	0	49489
BAKKEN	2-2020	15	33998	33589	65974	40499	0	38217

• 35914, SI/A, CLR, Wahpeton 16-16H1, Banks, t--; cum --; fracked 12/6/19 - 12/17/19; 7.1 million lbs; 88.42% water by mass; friction reduction, 0.06511; see this note; a huge well;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
3-2020	43003	66283
2-2020	17185	22139
1-2020	117	0

• 31520, SI/A, CLR, Steele Federal 5-24H1, Banks, t--; cum 18K over 15 days; fracked 12/14/19 - 12/23/19;8.2 million lbs; 87.8% water by mass; friction reduction, 0.06636;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
3-2020	24140	42503
2-2020	26494	44397
1-2020	18011	26459

• 31523, SI/A-->CONF, CLR, Steele Federal 9-24H, Banks, t--; cum 15K over 14 days; fracked 12/2/19 - 12/13/19; 10.6 million gallons of water; 86.88% water by mass; friction reduction, 0.06511;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
3-2020	31544	60492
2-2020	36079	68968
1-2020	14870	25449

• 31522, SI/A-->CONF, CLR, Steele Federal 8-24H1, Banks, t--; cum 17K over 13 days; fracked 12/1/19 - 12/13/19; 9 million gallons of water; 88.2% water by mass; friction reduction, 0.06982;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
3-2020	26147	38714
2-2020	28236	50381
1-2020	16783	28327

• 30177, A/F, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 5 SLTFH, Big Bend, t--; cum 61K over 61 days:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2020	3	2283	2095	0	1444	1425	4
BAKKEN	2-2020	21	17099	17104	17644	11656	9702	1850
BAKKEN	1-2020	31	31718	32030	37135	19315	3202	12535
BAKKEN	12-2019	6	9526	8648	1894	5331	0	4270

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Making Pancakes 

I thought I had posted these, but maybe I haven't. I apologize if these are a repeat. Making pancakes about a week ago:

All Is Right With The World -- Yesterday's Daily Activity Report Is Picture-Perfect -- May 7, 2020

Another huge shout-out to the great folks at the NDIC. Thank you for everything you do.

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On A Completely Different Note

Click here and on the video. Skip ahead to about 24 minutes into the briefing and to the end. Talk about a picture-perfect 30-second campaign ad on coronavirus.

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As Long As We've Gotten This Far Off-Track

Can anyone remember when the US Supreme Court ever voted unanimously on any high-visibility case? I can't. But then my memory is fading as fast as Sleepy Joe's. Whatever.

The US Supreme Court apparently voted unanimously to overturn "bridgegate" convictions. Links everywhere, here's one.

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Back to the Books

Warning: some references suitable for adults only.

The Wisdom of the Birds: An Illustrated History of Ornithology, Tim Birkhead, c. 2008.

I find it absolutely amazing how little we knew about bird, or should we say, fowl, reproduction prior to 1970.

Digression: 1970. That's an interesting snapshot in time. In 1970 we may have known more about human reproduction that avian reproduction. In 1961 the first oral contraceptive pill was approved by the FDA and became (somewhat) widely available.

Back to The Wisdom of The Birds, page 87:

It is now known that that the females of all birds released their ova [eggs] sequentially from the ovary, each one twenty-four to forty-eight hours before it is laid. 

Since an ovum [an egg] can be fertilized only during the 15-minute period while it is in the infundibulum [located between the ovary and the vagina in the bird], sperm storage - which ensures a constant supply of sperm delivered to the infundibulum -- avoids the inconvenience (or impracticality) of having to copulate at a very specific time each day to fertilize each egg in turn.

Sperm storage is a ubiquitous feature of birds, but varies in duration from around a week in pigeons and doves to over a month in fulmars and other species where male and female spend long periods apart. A convenient arrangement.

As noted, the FDA approved the birth control pill in 1961.

The existence of sperm storage tubules in wild songbirds (passerines) was discovered only in the 1970s when the American biologist Olin Bray and colleagues were checking whether vasectomy could be used to control the number of red-winged blackbirds, an agricultural pest. To Bray's surprise (and disappointment), many of the female blackbirds paired to vasectomized males continued to produce fertile eggs -- not because the vasectomy failed, but contrary to all expectations, female red-winged blackbirds turned out to be highly promiscuous and appeared to copulate with males other than their partner.

Shocked! I'm shocked! Tell me that's not true. One of my favorite birds while growing up in North Dakota was the red-winged blackbird. Not only is it an agricultural pest (I would love to hear back from ND farmers whether this is true) but the R-WB is promiscuous. Oh, the horrors of it all.

And to think a researcher was looking to extinct this species. [Yeah, I know: I don't think "extinct" can be used as a verb, but it's been a very, very strange year so far.]

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North American Jays

Members of the crow family, known as corvids, are considered the most "intelligent" of birds. Four North Amercan jays, members of the crow family, are the blue jay (the one we most commonly see here in Texas0; the Teller's jay; the Florida scrub jay, and the Canada jay.

Being members of the crow family explains their aggressiveness and bullying behaviors noted on Sophia's patio where we put out seed for the birds.

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Migration: Storks On The Wing

Yeah, this is fun. 

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Summer

MRO Reports An Incredible B-D-E-F Pad -- May 7, 2020

Locator: 40010DORIS.

The wells:

• 35422, SI/A-->AL/A, MRO, Esther USA 21-15H, Reunion Bay, t12/19 cum 189K over 3 months; cum 355K 4/21; cum 461K 3/24;
• 35423, SI/NC-->AL/A-->5,059, MRO, Doris USA 21-15TFH, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 172K over three months; cum 406K 4/21; cum 557K 3/24;
  
• 35421, drl-->AL/A, MRO, Beatrice USA 31-5TFH, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 134K over three months; 321K 1/21; cum 494K 3/24;
  
• 35424, SI/A-->AL/A-->5,455, MRO, Frances USA 11-15H, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 162K over 3 months; 365K 4/21; cum 501K 3/24;
  

The MRO B-D-E-F wells run south to north. Neighboring, older wells that run parallel to these wells, north to south:

• 18434, 621, MRO, Wakelum 21-3H, Reunion Bay, t5/10; cum 349K 4/21; off line at the expected time, but no jump in production; cum 367K 3/24;
  
• 21750, 2,084, MRO, Wakelum 31-3TFH, Reunion Bay, t3/12; cum 400K 4/21; huge well, not taken off line; cum 447K 3/24;
  
• 21369, 1,737, MRO, Wakelum 41-3H, Reunion Bay, t4/12; cum 355K 4/21; taken off line 8/19; remains off line 3/20; returning to production 10/10; cum 393K 3/24;
  

Production --

35423:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2020	31	44905	44778	34462	36072	0	32514
BAKKEN	2-2020	29	50607	50684	45149	35864	0	31981
BAKKEN	1-2020	31	76615	76208	87149	73821	0	68643
BAKKEN	12-2019	2	171	169	408	106	0	94

35421:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2020	31	25250	25222	23367	21097	0	19098
BAKKEN	2-2020	29	34944	34907	33112	23818	0	21158
BAKKEN	1-2020	27	36113	36355	37340	36472	0	34023
BAKKEN	12-2019	14	37220	36785	40408	29190	0	26677

35422:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2020	31	30174	30222	20443	25706	0	23302
BAKKEN	2-2020	29	54130	54097	28172	37376	0	33256
BAKKEN	1-2020	29	60473	60666	36007	60322	0	56226
BAKKEN	12-2019	13	44094	43578	30151	48238	0	45200

35424:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2020	31	50326	50079	31219	39249	0	35316
BAKKEN	2-2020	28	40569	40680	29255	30863	0	27710
BAKKEN	1-2020	28	70751	70373	64655	71883	0	67083

 

Two Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today -- May 7, 2020

Why not? At this link, click on the  "ARROW" on the Google icon to get a bit of music history.

Bored? Google doodle games.

Jobless claims: link here:

• prior: 3.839 million
• revised: 3.846
• consensus: 3.041 million (obviously darts thrown at a dart board; I love the false precision)
• actual: 3.139 million
• trending toward 40 million unemployed over past six weeks
  

Unemployment:

• Arizona has had enough;
• California borrowing money from the feds to pay for unemployment insurance;
  

Also in Arizona:

• Emmy-winning meteorologist reports fake new; twittershot here;
• blocks fact-checkers at her twitter account; can't make this stuff up;

State debt (quick fix: raise state income taxes and property taxes):

• New York: $13 billion in debt. 
• California: could be worse than 2011.

What's up, doc? We've gone from near-perfect daily activity reports from the NDIC for over ten years, and then two days ago, this, and then yesterday the report was not posted. As of 8:14 a.m. Thursday, May 7, 2020, yesterday's report not yet posted. Update: posted. From Wednesday's daily activity report:

OPEC basket: $21.44. Link here and always at the sidebar. This morning, OPEC shows $22.40 up from $21.43 yesterday but still less expensive (and less marketable) than WTI.

Vaca Muerta: may be living up to its namesake -- "dead." Link here, from Rigzone. Vaca Muerta is tracked here. That last entry there, back in December, 2018, suggested the Vaca Muera might produce as much as 60,000 bopd by 2022.

• Argentina unlikely to be able to repay its record $57 billion bailout from the IMF, the government has cut spending (including on developing oil projects)
• rig count has fallen from 43 (August, 2019) to 29 by the end of last year (2019)
• article doesn't say how much the Vaca Muera is producing but says the Neuquén province is producing 167,000 bopd
• Argentina refineries operating at 30% to 40% of normal levels due to 70% decline in gasoline demand and 50% decline in diesel sales;
• it appears a minimum price of $40 to $50 per barrel is needed

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Back to Today's Bakken

Active rigs:

$26.34	5/7/2020	05/07/2019	05/07/2018	05/07/2017	05/07/2016
Active Rigs	22	64	61	49	27

Two wells coming off the confidential list today  -- 

Thursday, May 7, 2020: 23 for the month; 73 for the quarter, 300 for the year:

• 36590, drl, Rimrock, Skunk Creek, 8-2-3-4H, South Forks, t--; cum 10K in 30 days;
• 34165, drl, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUS Njos 5-36-35-157N-100W-LL MBH, Marmon, no production data,

RBN Energy: refineries' options for dealing with extraordinary times.

The COVID-19-induced social isolation and subsequent economic slowdown have caused major drops in U.S. refined products consumption, especially gasoline and jet fuel, which have experienced declines of as much as 44% and 70%, respectively, relative to similar periods in 2019. Diesel fuel consumption has been off as much as 20% on the same basis, and given that COVID is a global crisis, product exports have also fallen.

As a result, U.S. refinery utilization has dropped to less than 70% for the last few weeks, the lowest levels since September 2008 during Hurricane Ike. All this presents refiners with two challenges: (1) reduced total demand; and (2) the disproportionate decline in gasoline and jet fuel. Each refinery is configured differently and has a varying degree of flexibility to react to these challenges. Today, we discuss what refiners can do to adjust operations and product yields, and examine the point at which some refineries might be forced to shut down completely.