The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): 02/28/20

Friday, February 28, 2020

Kraken, 99 Wells, Burg Oil Field -- March, 2020, NDIC Hearing Dockets

Case (not a permit):

28343, Kraken, Burg-Bakken, ten wells on nine standup 1280-acre units; 90 wells total, multiple sections-159-99; Williams County;

Graphics:

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More

Coronavirus Update -- February 28, 2020

Case study: The Diamond Princess coronavirus event is being closely monitored and studied by the public health community. Talk about a rare chance to study a "controlled population." Except that children (and younger people in general) would be under-represented in this population it will still provide a wealth of information about the virus. Basic facts:

3,711 passengers and crew
705 cases (as of 6:39 a.m. Central Time, February 29, 2020 -- real-time updates)
deaths: 6
death rate of 6/705 = 0.85%

We'll also get to see the "incubation period" and how long an outbreak can last:

January 20, 2020: index case; 80-y/o male from Hong Kong embarked in Yokohama
he sailed on segment, disembarking on January 25, 2020
he visited a local Hong Kong hospital, six days later, January 31, 2020;
he tested positive on February 1, 2020
on the next segment, February 4, 2020: ten passengers were diagnosed with the virus (while in Japanese waters)

The ship remains under quarantine as of February 29, 2020; anchored off Yokohama, Japan. The exact date of quarantine was not stated, but one can probably consider February 4, 2020, as the most likely date.

Of huge concern from the public health angle: the most recent deaths from the Diamond Princess: two deaths two days ago -- almost a month after the first case was diagnosed. However, it is not known when the most recent patient became infected, when that patient first showed symptoms, when that patient was first diagnosed; when that patient was hospitalized; where those two patients were hospitalized; and where they are being treated.

Recent history from the Diamond Princess:

February 29: one new case, 70 years old; got off the ship Feb 20, symptoms Feb 28; remains "mild"
February 28: one new case, a Japanese woman in her 70s
February 27: no new cases actually report on ship (however, see below)
February 26: fourteen new cases: nine crew members and five passengers
February 25: one new death; a person in their 80s; again, no details

Tracking challenges; double counting: as one scrolls through the list of countries with less than five coronavirus cases, they are "all" evacuees from the Diamond Princess, which underscores the challenge of sorting this out. For example, on February 26, any number of European countries reported one new case and in each incidence, it was an individual in quarantine evacuated from the Diamond Princess.

South Korea: from February 20, 2020:

The Shincheonji religious group in Daegu, attended by the 31st case (a possible "super spreader"), has been shut down after about 10 members tested positive for the virus. About 1,000 members attended worship at the church.

Case studies for the future:

South Korea: will be incredibly interesting from many aspects;

South Korea may indeed be "the model" for the US

Italy: could be the model for the EU
Iran: third world country; method of containment: trucks driving down city streets spraying germicides;
Russia: a fairly closed society

"Super spreaders": imagine the number of super spreaders in this group of 30,000 refugees that Turkey will let stream into the EU this weekend. No matter how much money public health agencies have, it won't be enough if countries like Turkey are this irresponsible.

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Coronavirus Update

The official daily figures for February 28, 2020, should be posted within the next few hours. It looks similar to yesterday with the exception of two new deaths from the Diamond Princess, the cruise ship. It appears that China is running about 50 new deaths/day. Outside of China, the countries with the most new deaths were Iran (8), Italy (4), South Korea (3).

It appears the following countries reported their first cases:

Mexico (two new cases; the first cases reported by Mexico)
Nigeria
New Zealand
Monaco
Lituania
Iceland
Belarus
Azerbaijan

The United States reported three new cases bringing the total to 63 cases overall; no coronavirus-related deaths (yet) -- but that's inevitable. Especially now that Mexico has their first cases, and the courts are not supporting the president's policies to protect the southern border.

If Mexico were to lose control of the public health crisis, one can assume Mexicans attempting to leave the country would head north, not south to Guatemala.

Coronavirus is tracked here.

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Seasonal Flu

What The Major Networks Are Not Reporting

With regard to seasonal flu, the CDC is much less exact with regard to numbers. As of February 21, 2020:

More than 100 kids have died of the flu so far this season.

Flu deaths up in the new year: CDCFlu deaths are up more than 65% so far in 2020, with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reporting that 4,800 people had died and 87,000 people had been hospitalized.

From the CDC, week 8, ending February 22, 2020:

overall cumulative hospitalization rate for the season increased to 53/100,000
the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza is 6.9%, which is below the epidemic threshold of 7.3%;
pediatric deaths:

20 new deaths this past week;
cumulative for the 2019 - 2020 season: 125

the "flu" vaccine is less than 50% effective; reported February 27, 2020, the "flu" vaccine is said to be 45% effective, about average for "flu" vaccines in general;

In the small print of that report:

The overall cumulative hospitalization rate was 52.7 per 100,000 population which is similar to what has been seen during recent previous influenza seasons at this time of year.

Rates in school aged children and young adults are higher than at this time in recent seasons, and rates among children 0-4 years old are now the highest CDC has on record at this point in the season, surpassing rates reported during the second wave of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic.

Note that despite the rates for children being higher than the 2009 H1N1 pandemic there have been no calls to close day care centers, schools, or athletic events, to the best of my knowledge.

The highest rate of hospitalization is among adults aged ≥ 65, followed by children aged 0-4 years and adults aged 50-64 years.

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Coronovirus Statistics

February 28, 2020

Four most important statistics:

growth factor: 2%; no change; same as yesterday, 2%
daily deaths, change in new deaths, daily, 7 (12%) d/d; yesterday: 21 (57%) d/d; much better;
daily deaths, change in total deaths, 65 (2%), d/d; yesterday: 58 (2%) about the same as yesterday;
deaths by country: see above; unremarkable;

WTI Drops Below $45 On Coronavirus Demand Fears -- February 28, 2020

Active rigs:

$44.76	2/28/2020	02/28/2019	02/28/2018	02/28/2017	02/28/2016
Active Rigs	52	67	57	41	38

Two new permits, #37415 - #37416, inclusive --

Operators: Kraken, Oasis
Fields: Lone Tree Lake

Comments:
Kraken has a permit for a Redfield Central well in Lone Tree Lake, NENW section 25-157-99;
Oasis has a permit for aWold well in the same oil field, Lone Tree Lake, according to the daily activity report, but that's clearly in error; it should be Sand Creek and that's what the scout ticket says (Sand Creek); in SWSE section 34-153-97;

One permit was renewed:

Whiting, an Olson permit in Williams County;

One producing well (a DUC) was reported as completed:

35902, A/SI, Slawson, Tempest Federal 1 SLH, t--; cum -- ; not sure what is going on with this well; nothing in the file report; re-configuring the pad may have caused some delay;

Holy Mackerel! -- Pocahontas Down Eight Points In Her Home State; Did Bloomberg Erode Her Support? -- February 28, 2020

Sent to me by a reader; huge thank you.

I assume she is down for three reasons:

not liberal enough (four points there);
her screeching (two points there);
her history of opportunism/lying (two points there)

Previous polls: Sanders and Pocahontas statistically tied.

Most recent poll: Sanders by eight points over Pocahontas.

Sanders stayed about the same.

Pocahontas loses six points.

Buttigieg: unchanged.

Biden: down three points.

Who picked up those nine points? Bloomberg picked up four points.

It appears Bernie's support is fixed, stable, unshakeable, but won't change a whole lot.

Support of Pocahontas is blowin' in the wind.

Bloomberg making inroads but trivial, irrelevant. Unlikely to come out of MA with any delegates.

Massachusetts:

91 of 114 delegates based on primary voting (rest are "super-delegates")
must get at least 15% of votes to be "viable)
in polling above:
25 + 17 + 15 = 57 (assuming Buttigieg hits 15 and is viable)
25/57 = 44%
16/57 = 28%

Hess Permit -- March, 2020, Hearing Dockets -- Truax Oil Field

Case 28356 (not a permit):

28356, Hess, Truax-Bakken, twelve wells on a 1280-acre unit, section 4/9-154-98; Williams County;

The graphics:

Wells in this drilling unit:

35944, loc, Hess, SC-Bingeman-154-98-0904H-11, Truax,
35943, loc, Hess, SC-Bingeman-154-98-0904H-10, Truax,
35942, loc, Hess, SC-Bingeman-154-98-0904H-9, Truax,
35941, loc, Hess, SC-Bingeman-154-98-0904H-8, Truax,
35940, loc, Hess, SC-Bingeman-154-98-0904H-7, Truax,

22612, 481, Hess, SC-Bingeman-154-98-0904H-1, Truax, t9/12; cum 146K 12/19;

29689, 878, Hess, SC-Bingeman-154-98-0904H-5, Truax, t7/15; cum 186K 12/19;
29688, 779, Hess, SC-Bingeman-154-98-0904H-4, Truax, t8/15; cum 147K 12/19;
29687, 985, Hess, SC-Bingeman-154-98-0904H-3, Truax, t7/15; cum 110K 12/19;
29686, 1,424, Hess, SC-Bingeman-154-98-0904H-2, Truax, t7/15; cum 241K 12/19;

30633, 1,902, Hess, SC-Hoving-LW-154-98-1003H-1, Truax, t11/18; cum 166K 12/19;

29690, 1,745, Hess, SC-Bingeman-154-98-0904H-6, Truax, t11/18; cum 152K 12/19;

Never Let A Crisis Go To Waste -- February 28, 2020

It will be interesting to watch the “loyal opposition “ oppose this:

And, the Fed might help:

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Meanwhile

Same day, here in the US: Ninth Circuit Court rules against Trump on southern border protection:

A Closer Look At The Oasis Kellogg Federal Well That Came Off Confidential Today -- February 28, 2020

The well:

35252, 236, Oasis, Kellogg Federal 5297 44-19 12T, Three Forks, 40 stages; 4.0 million lbs; Banks, t9/19; cum 57K 12/19;

The other wells on this pad:

35253, conf,
35351, conf,

Production, #35252:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2019	31	22062	22102	36668	49566	45934	3136
BAKKEN	11-2019	30	11796	11741	27467	23446	19941	3025
BAKKEN	10-2019	31	19362	19576	34579	45009	39781	4732
BAKKEN	9-2019	6	2958	3260	4383	6729	5783	482
BAKKEN	8-2019	3	987	449	11704	1691	1411	248

Neighboring wells (both have been added to the index of "wells of interest"):

20048, 1,283, BR, Carlsbad 21-17H, Twin Valley, t8/12; cum 282K 12/19; huge production jump, period of interest:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2019	31	10081	10153	11460	31240	31163	0
BAKKEN	11-2019	30	8560	8204	12210	25963	25889	0
BAKKEN	10-2019	31	7545	7777	11218	21017	20940	0
BAKKEN	9-2019	30	6807	6485	14099	18266	12433	5759
BAKKEN	8-2019	21	1136	1380	11542	3607	2731	824
BAKKEN	7-2019	31	1912	1402	3688	4897	4262	558
BAKKEN	6-2019	30	3392	3963	1554	9282	9208	0
BAKKEN	5-2019	8	929	336	431	1634	1307	307
BAKKEN	4-2019	0	0	312	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2019	12	825	463	111	1573	1543	0
BAKKEN	2-2019	13	760	1406	127	1346	1314	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	13	1077	692	141	2087	2055	0
BAKKEN	12-2018	19	1113	1155	271	2197	2150	0

20277, 1,213, Oasis, Rolfsrud Federal 18-19H, Banks, t2/12; cum 245K 12/19; huge jump; period of interest:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2019	31	8368	8798	6590	39499	25182	14007
BAKKEN	11-2019	30	9962	9623	13341	46463	29711	16452
BAKKEN	10-2019	31	11480	11812	24755	55517	26961	28247
BAKKEN	9-2019	26	6397	5815	35860	27445	12068	15116
BAKKEN	8-2019	1	30	0	0	141	0	131
BAKKEN	7-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2018	5	195	503	220	855	805	0
BAKKEN	11-2018	29	1687	1314	1264	6110	5820	0
BAKKEN	10-2018	18	723	1062	375	3421	3241	0
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	1667	1852	955	6481	6181	0

From the file report, #35252:

small frack;
stimulated 7/19;
approximately 16 miles northeast of Watford City, ND
Three Forks, first bench;
middle Bakken: entered at 11,065' MD (10,973' TVD) [44 feet thick]
lower Bakken shale member: recorded at 11,155' MD (11,017' TVD)
Pronghorn member: drilled at 11,236' MD (11,047' TVD) [five feet thick]
Three Forks, 1st bench: drilled at 11,253' MD (11,052' TVD
target: 16' , beginning 10' below the base of the Pronghorn and extending to 5' above the claystone;
in the horizontal, a 10- 20' trip flare at 19,387' MD
TD: 21,275' MD
lateral portion drilled in six days
exposed 9,916' of uncased hole, entirely within the Three Forks, first bench;

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Montessori

Sophia checking work and helping the others.

The March, 2020, NDIC Hearing Dockets

The NDIC hearing dockets are tracked here.

Link here.

The usual disclaimer applies. As usual this is done very quickly and using shorthand for my benefit. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. Do not quote me on any of this. It's for my personal use to help me better understand the Bakken. Do not read it. If you do happen to read it, do not make any investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel plans based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If this stuff is important to you, and I doubt that it is, but if it is, go to the source.

Highlights in bold.

Wednesday, March 25, 2020

Nine Pages

The cases:

28334, MRO, Bailey-Bakken, two wells on a new overlapping 2560-acre unit, sections 3/4/9/10-146-94; Dunn County;
28335, MRO, Bailey and Killdeer-Bakken; setback rules, Dunn County
28336, Petro-Hunt, Stoneview-Bakken, pooling,
28337, Petro-Hunt, East Tioga-Bakken, pooling,
28338, Petro-Hunt, East Tioga-Bakken, pooling,
28339, Petro-Hunt, East Tioga-Bakken, pooling,
28340, Petro-Hunt, East Tioga-Bakken, pooling,
28341, Petro-Hunt, East Tioga-Bakken, pooling,
28342, Petro-Hunt, East Tioga-Bakken, poolign
28343, Kraken, Burg-Bakken, ten wells on nine standup 1280-acre units; 90 wells total, multiple sections-159-99; Williams County; see this post;
28344, Kraken, Burk-Bakken; ten wells on a standup 1280-acre unit; sections 29/32-159-99; Williams County; see this post;
28345, Whiting, commingling,
28346, Whiting, commingling,
28347, Whiting, commingling,
28348, Whiting, commingling,
28349, Whiting, commingling,
28350, Whiting, commingling,
28351, Hess, commingling,
28352, Hess, commingling,
28353, Hess, commingling,
28354, Hess,Tioga-Bakken, pooling,
28355, Hess, Big Butte-Bakken; two wells on an existing 1280-acre unit; sections 13/24-157-94; Mountrail County;
28356, Hess, Truax-Bakken, twelve wells on a 1280-acre unit, sections 4/9-154-98; Williams County; see this post;
28357, Hess, Blue Buttes-Bakken, pooling,
28358, Hess, Big Butte-Bakken; injectivity test, file #27295, EN-Ortloff #6; Mountrail County, see this post;
28359, Hess, Big Butte-Bakken; injectivity test, file #27296, EN-Ortloff #5; Mountrail County, see this post;
28360, Hess, Big Butte-Bakken; injectivity test, file #27297, EN-Ortloff #4; Mountrail County, see this post;
28361, Hess, Big Butte-Bakken; injectivity test, file #27294, EN-Ortloff #7; Mountrail County, see this post;
28362, Hess Water Services, SWD, Beaver Lodge, Williams County;
28363, Hess Water Services, SWD, Alkali Creek, Mountrail County;
28364, MRO, Bailey-Bakken ten wells on a 1280-acre unit, sections 4/9-146-94, Dunn County; see this post;
28365, MRO, Bailey-Bakken, nine wells on a 1280-acre unit, sections 17/20-146-94, Dunn County; see this post;
28366, MRO, Bailey-Bakken, eight wells on a 1280-acre unit, sections 29/32-146-94, Dunn County; see this post;
28367, MRO, Killdeer-Bakken, eight wells on a 1280-acre unit, sections 30/31-146-94, Dunn County; see this post;

Thursday, March 26, 2020

Twelve Pages

The cases:

28368, Peregrine Petroleum Partners, Ltd, Flat Top Butte and/or Rough Rider-Bakken; establish a new 1600-acre unit; S/2 section 2, all of sections 11/14-145-101; two wells; McKenzie County;
28369, Ovintiv Production Inc; South Tobacco Garden-Bakken; amend stratigraphic limits; McKenzie County
28370, Slawson, Big Bend-Bakken, i) seven wells on a new overlapping 1920-acre unit, sections 22/27/34-152-91; ii) decrease from ten wells to three wells the number of wells on an existing 640-acre unit, section 22-152-91; and, iii) decrease from ten wells to four wells on an existing 1280-acre unit, sections 27/34-152-91; Mountrail County
28371, Slawson, Big Bend-Bakken; i) ten wells on a new overlapping 2560-acre unit, section 36-152-92, section 31-152-91, sectioin 1-151-92, and section 6-151-91; ii) ten wells on two existing 1280-acre units, sections 24/25-152-92; and, sections 19/30-152-91; iii) terminate an existing 5120-acre unit in Big Bend-Bakken; Mountrail County
28372, Slawson, Big Bend-Bakken; two wells on a new 3840-acre unit, sections 22/23/26/27/34/35-152-91; Mountrail County;
28373, EOG, Clarks Creek-Bakken; amend field rules; setback rules;
28374, KODA Resources, Fertile Valley-Bakken, one well on each of eight new 1280-acre units; multiple sections-160-103; Divide County;
28375, KODA Resources, Grenora-Bakken, one well one each of nine new 1280-acre units; multiple sections-159-103, Williams County
28376, KODA Resources, Bar Butte-Bakken, one wells on each of nine 1280-acre units; multiple sections-159-102, Williams County;
28377, Nine Point Energy, Briar Creek-Bakken, eight wells on a new 1920-acre unit, sections 5/8/17-152-104, Williams, McKenzie counties;
28378, WPX, Heart Butte-Bakken, one well; two new overlapping 2560-acre units; Dunn County;
28379, WPX, Squaw Creek-Bakken, one well; two new overlapping 2560-acre units; McKenzie County;
28380, Kraken, Sanish-Bakken, i) nine wells on a new overlapping 1920-acre unit, sections 21/28/33-154-92; ii) one horizontal well on an overlapping 2560-acre unit; iii) one horizontal well on a new overlapping 3840-acre unit; Mountrail County
28381, Kraken, Robinson Lake-Bakken, one well; a new overlapping 3840-acre unit; Mountrail County;
28382, XTO, Haystack Butte-Bakken, amend field rule for specific well; Dunn County;
28383, XTO, Heart Butte-Bakken, one wells, an overlapping 1280-acre unit (very strange 1280-acre unit);
28384, commission to review permit for treating plant;
28385, CLR, Catwalk-Bakken, setback rules;
28386, CLR, Catwalk-Bakken, one well; two new overlapping 3200-acre units; Williams, McKenzie counties;
28387, CLR, East Fork-Bakken, East Fork-Bakken; two wells on a new overlapping 2560-acre unit; Williams County
28388, CLR, Sanish-Bakken, fourteen wells on each of two new 1680-acre units, many sections-153-93; McKenzie, Mountrail counties
28389, Equinor, working interest legalese; Williams County;
28390, Ovintiv, Production, Inc, Grinnell-Bakken, pooling;
28391, Ovintiv Production, Inc, Grinnell-Bakken, pooling,
28392, Ovintiv Production, Inc, Grinnell-Bakken; fourteen wells on an existing 1280-acre unit, sections 28/33-154-96; McKenzie, Williams counties;
28393, Ovintiv Production, Inc, Siverston-Bakken, fourteen wells on each of two existing 1280-acre units, sections 30/31-151-98; and section 6/7-150-98; McKenzie County

28394, Ovintiv Production, Inc, Tobacco Garden-Bakken, fourteen wells one of three existing 1280-acre units; sections 2/11; sections 5/8; and section 6/7-150-99, McKenzie County
28395, XTO, North Fork-Bakken, pooling,
28396, XTO, North Fork-Bakken, pooling,
28397, XTO, North Fork-Bakken, pooling,
28398, XTO, Haystack Butte-Bakken, pooling,
28399, XTO, Heart Butte-Bakken, pooling,
28400, CLR, East Fork-Bakken, pooling,
28401, CLR, Williston and/or Catwalk-Bakken, pooling,
28402, CLR, Catwalk and/or Last Chance-Bakken, pooling,
28403, CLR, Epping-Bakken, two wells on an existing overlapping 2560-acre unit; Williams
28404, CLR, commingling,
28405, Liberty Resources, McGregor-Bakken, pooling,
28406, Liberty Resources, Enget Lake-Bakken, pooling,
28407, Liberty Resources, Enget Lake-Bakken, pooling,
28408, EOG, Antelope-Sanish, pooling,
28409, EOG, commingling,
28410, WPX, Squaw Creek-Bakken, pooling,
28411, WPX, Squaw Creek-Bakken, pooling,
28412, WPX, Squaw Creek-Bakken, eight wells on an existing 640-acre unit, section 8-149-94, McKenzie County;
28413, KODA Resources, Fertile Valley-Bakken, pooling,
28414, KODA Resources, Fertile Valley-Bakken, pooling,
28415, KODA Resources, Fertile Valley-Bakken, pooling,
28416, KODA Resources, Smoky Butte-Bakken, pooling,
28417, KODA Resources, Hanks-Bakken, pooling,
28418, KODA Resources, Bar Butte-Bakken, pooling,
28419, KODA Resources, Bar Butte-Bakken, pooling,
28420, KODA Resources, Bar Butte-Bakken, pooling,
28421, KODA Resources, Bar Butte, SWD,
28422, KODA Resources, SWD,
28423, Zavanna, SWD,
28424, Hanna SWD,

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- What Does Hillary Have Against IHeartRadio -- Jeffrey Epstein Did Not Hang Himself -- February 28, 2020

Coronavirus: two new cases recorded in USA; now at 62; no deaths (yet). Inevitable.

Recalculating: A recurring theme on the blog -- whenever there are significant political developments, Hillary Clinton pops back up in the news. Here we go again. Just in time for Super Tuesday; four of the seven front-runners looking to go home; Bernie surging; Bloomberg likely to survive only as an independent, third-party candidate: Hillary announces a new on-the-air program. Data points:

to be launched "this spring"
IHeart Radio platform (which includes Rush Limbaugh)
yet-to-be titled
will be upbeat

Canceled: folks may recall the Clintons had scheduled a 13-city tour back in late 2018. It was canceled due to "poor ticket sales. " The tour was to go deep into 2019 and keep Hillary in the "hunt." More here, one month later. And if you have not had enough of this fun, more here.

Polar bear update: link here.

Deportation appeal fees to rise: link here.

Sentenced: former Baltimore mayor sentenced to three years in prison.

69 years old
tax evasion
conspiracy
pleaded guilty

Limbaugh: Vic Hanson.

Campaign 2020: link here.

Atmospheric CO2, link here:

At the #realCandaceOwens: Weeks ago, we were all going to die from World War III because Trump killed Soleimani. —which was scheduled to take place before we were all going to die from climate change in 12 years. But now we’re all going to die from Coronavirus. The Left is becoming a Doomsday Cult.

within the last twelve hours, it was reported that two more passengers from the Diamond Princess had died; link here. Iran reporting more deaths. Fortunately Iran is not hosting the summer Olympics.

Local McDonald's: this is almost bizarre. It seem the new owner-manager has doubled the morning rush-hour staff. Three assistant managers that generally alternate shifts and/or weekdays are all at work this morning. Meanwhile, the intense focus on cleaning continues. The drive-through traffic is always heavy during rush hour, but today's sit-down is busier than ever. Very, very interesting. The owner-manager -- a husband-wife team, it appears -- look to be in their mid-40s. Very likely they were brought in by McDonald's to turn this McDonald's around. Its location is one of the best in this area. It's also possible they own other McDonald's restaurants and have just bought this one to add to their franchise.

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Backyard This Morning

This one is really, really cool. Because I'm shooting into the sun and into the shadow, this is a bit hard to see. But, if you look carefully, there is a bit of "red flash" on the anterior/front of the left wing. One can also see a bit of the crest.

WTI Drops Below $46; Hess Midstream's Bakken Crude Oil Gathering Systems and Related Assets -- RBN Energy -- February 28, 2020

Alpine low? Wow, remember all that excitement about Alpine High. Turns out to be a bust. Apache ditches Alpine High after $3 billion writedown. Wow.

Apache Corp. is officially calling it quits on a highly publicized but disappointing shale discovery in West Texas after vehemently defending the play’s prospects for about three years.

The Houston-based company posted a roughly $3 billion writedown on its Alpine High project, a find from 2016 that fizzled when it turned out to hold more natural gas than oil.

Apache will instead focus on offshore riches in Suriname, where the explorer recently struck crude and enlisted French oil titan Total SA as a partner.

Comment: I've been saying the same thing for years that the Permian is producing too much natural gas. Look at the EIA dashboards:

EIA pdf, Bakken: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/bakken.pdf
EIA, pdf, Permian: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/permian.pdf
EIA, pdf, Eagle Ford: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/eagleford.pdf

Mexico: Pemex 4Q19 loss widens to $9 billion. AMLO is counting on increased oil revenue to pay for social programs.

Mexican state-owned oil firm Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) reported a net loss of US$8.77 billion for the fourth quarter of 2019, widened from a loss of US$8.1 billion for the same period of 2018, mainly due to lower crude oil exports.

Pemex’s crude oil and condensate production averaged 1.712 million bpd in the fourth quarter of 2019, down from an average production of 1.741 million bpd for the fourth quarter of 2018, according to Pemex’s results released today.

The lower production in Q4 2019 versus Q4 2018 was the result of natural decline of production at some mature fields, Pemex said, noting that the decline rate slowed down thanks to production from newer oilfields.

Epic Texas pipeline: update.

Permian to EPIC's Crane terminal to Robstown, TX (Corpus Christi market)

initial capacity of 600,000 bbls of oil per day
full service by April 1, 2020
will have a total of 5.4 million bbls of operational storage by April 1, 2020, but will eventualy have 7.5 million bbls of operational storage
yet to complete East Dock; to be operational by 2H02
West Dock began operations, December, 2019

EPIC Crude Holdings was formed in 2017 to build and operate the EPIC Crude Oil Pipeline

700 miles; Orla, TX (Permian and Eagle Ford) to Corpus Christi, TX

Dominion: to buy regional LNG assets from Southern Company, including Pivotal LNG. Link here but nothing of substance.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$45.71	2/28/2020	02/28/2019	02/28/2018	02/28/2017	02/28/2016
Active Rigs	50	67	57	41	38

Only one well coming off confidential list today --

Friday, February 28, 2020: 63 for the month; 170 for the quarter, 170 for the year:

35252, 236, Oasis, Kellogg Federal 5297 44-19 12T, Banks, t9/19; cum 57K 12/19;

RBN Energy: Hess midstream's Bakken crude oil gathering systems and related assets, part 2. Link here. Archived.

The Bakken was among the first plays to benefit big-time from the Shale Revolution, experiencing a 400%-plus increase in crude production in the first half of the 2010s. The play has had more than its share of challenges, however, including a serious lack of takeaway capacity that spurred the first rapid deployment of modern-day crude-by-rail, followed by a rig-count collapse and major production decline after the mid-decade crash in oil prices. But the Bakken has been roaring back. Crude output there now tops 1.5 MMb/d — some 250 Mb/d higher than its late-2014 peak — and producers have been planning for continued production growth in 2020, though many may be reassessing those plans in light of this week’s coronavirus-related price slide. In any case, production growth is only possible if there’s sufficient gathering infrastructure in place to handle it. Today, we continue our series on crude-related infrastructure in western North Dakota with a look at a leading Bakken midstreamer’s assets.

Over the past four years, Bakken producers have significantly reduced their drilling-and-completion costs and increased their productivity and per-well production. Just as important, their chronic shortfall of pipeline takeaway capacity ended in mid-2017 with the start-up of the Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL) to Patoka, IL, whose initial capacity of 470 Mb/d has since been expanded to 570 Mb/d. DAPL significantly reduced Bakken shippers’ reliance on crude-by-rail — though substantial volumes are still railed to refineries on the West Coast — and slashed the cost of delivering most of the play’s light crude to Midwest and Gulf Coast markets. We also pointed out that DAPL has been filling up and its co-owners are considering a possible expansion; that a joint venture of Phillips 66 and Bridger Pipeline is developing the new Liberty Pipeline from the Bakken to the crude oil hub in Cushing, OK; and that a number of new gas processing plants are coming online in western North Dakota to handle all the increasing volumes of associated gas produced by the play’s crude-focused wells.

All that sets the stage for continued production growth in the Bakken in 2020 — again, assuming crude oil prices don’t collapse — and the need for new and expanded crude gathering pipelines and related infrastructure. A case in point is Hess Midstream, which owns and operates a large crude gathering network that connects Hess Corp. and third-party wells in the core of Bakken production to two crude oil terminals, a crude header system and a big crude-by-rail facility. (We’ll discuss each of these in a moment.) Owned primarily by Hess Corp. — a leading Bakken producer — and Global Infrastructure Partners, Hess Midstream also has gas gathering pipelines, gas processing plants and produced-water gathering pipelines in the Bakken.