Random Update Of A BR He Well In Elidah Oil Field -- Small Jump In Production -- January 29, 2020

The well:

• 19586, 539, BR, He 1-20H, Elidah, t2/11; cum 353K 11/19; neighboring wells were fracked in late 2019;

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2019	30	9291	8990	6550	17236	12514	4648
BAKKEN	10-2019	30	4414	4282	6727	8333	6110	2149
BAKKEN	9-2019	4	169	0	400	374	212	152
BAKKEN	8-2019	13	1449	1802	993	2822	1619	1171
BAKKEN	7-2019	31	3002	2977	2419	7595	4733	2785
BAKKEN	6-2019	30	3404	3405	2467	6723	2027	4622
BAKKEN	5-2019	31	4597	4774	2848	9614	5039	4498
BAKKEN	4-2019	13	2164	1995	1310	4146	335	3779
BAKKEN	3-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2018	5	68	0	120	28	16	0
BAKKEN	11-2018	7	472	232	536	52	35	0
BAKKEN	10-2018	21	1396	1631	2943	1206	0	1154
BAKKEN	9-2018	16	661	467	1480	991	754	197

Halo Effect Pushes This Old Well Over 500K Bbls -- January 29, 2020

The well:

• 22113, 2,077, MRO, Baker USA 11-18H, 33-061-01967, Van Hook, t11/12; cum 537K 11/19; FracFocus, no recent frack:

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2019	30	5307	5315	4841	5880	4500	1043
BAKKEN	10-2019	31	6404	6334	5717	6621	5654	565
BAKKEN	9-2019	30	6633	6693	5263	7989	5820	1757
BAKKEN	8-2019	31	7997	7925	7926	7748	6200	1065
BAKKEN	7-2019	31	8203	8212	5571	7452	6502	463
BAKKEN	6-2019	30	8415	8431	5184	6796	4517	1780
BAKKEN	5-2019	31	12263	12197	9447	12533	1303	10507
BAKKEN	4-2019	21	9062	9022	12039	11880	0	11330
BAKKEN	3-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2018	2	39	361	193	37	0	34
BAKKEN	10-2018	3	116	661	18	109	0	102
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	2434	2278	941	2216	0	1903
BAKKEN	8-2018	31	2809	2653	830	2609	628	1640

Just Happened To Catch This On The News Earlier Today -- Nothing About The Bakken -- It's All Politics -- Texas Politics -- January 29, 2020

Link here, still not behind a paywall, over at The Atlantic.

Democrats always knew it was going to be hard to turn Texas blue in 2020.

This week, they received a painful reminder of just how tough it’ll be. Republicans last night swamped Democrats in what one progressive group had hyped as “the most important special election since the midterms,” winning by 16 points a key state legislative race that both parties viewed as a test run for the much-bigger campaign this fall.

The defeat, particularly by such a wide margin, was a setback for Democrats, who poured nearly $1 million into the election. It also signaled the reinvigoration of the Texas GOP. Republicans were caught napping in 2016 and 2018, giving Democrats hope that they could put the country’s largest GOP stronghold in play this year. But the party came back to life in this race, well exceeding Democrats’ substantial investment.

Texas Governor Greg Abbott and other top Republicans threw their support behind the GOP candidate Gary Gates, who spent more than $1.5 million of his own money in the campaign. The millions spent in total were a whopping sum for an election decided by just 30,000 people—a turnout of 20 percent—to fill just one of 150 seats in the Texas state House.

After cutting into the margins of the Republican majority in the chamber in 2018, Democrats need to flip just nine seats to win control this fall and loosen the GOP’s long-held grip on the state government. They had hoped to get a head start on that bid by nabbing this open GOP seat.

“Democrats were convinced they could buy Texas. But tonight they learned Texans aren’t buying the nonsense the Democrats are selling,” said Austin Chambers, the president of the Republican State Leadership Committee, the national-party group dedicated to state legislative races.

“Texans sent a message loud and clear to the liberals in Washington: ‘We’re going to keep Texas Texas.’”The seemingly small stakes of a local campaign in the Houston suburbs had nevertheless captured the attention of the Democratic Party’s top presidential candidates, who used the race to demonstrate their commitment to Democrats’ broader goal of recapturing power in the states and making Texas truly competitive in 2020.

The Democratic candidate Eliz Markowitz won endorsements from Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, and Michael Bloomberg. Former Representative Beto O’Rourke, who nearly carried the district in his close Senate race in 2018, campaigned aggressively for Markowitz after dropping his own White House bid in the fall. Yet she not only failed to match O’Rourke’s performance two years ago against Senator Ted Cruz; she fell short of the 43 percent of the vote that Hillary Clinton earned in the district in 2016.

Another Interesting Permit From EOG In Clarks Creek -- January 29, 2020

Most interesting data point on this page: the "chronologic" number of the EOG permits.

Disclaimer: this was done very, very quickly. Not yet proofread. Likely to have content and typographical errors. In progress.

In today's daily activity report, this permit:

• EOG has a permit for a Clarks Creek well in Sanish-Antelope, section 7-151-94;

Clarks Creek oil field is tracked here. Antelope oil field is tracked here.

Does anyone recall this from the April, 2013, dockets?

The 2560-acre stand-up drilling unit:

Briefly:

• eleven wells, 1920-acre unit: sections 25/36-152-95 and section 1-151-95;
• eleven wells, 1280-acre unit: sections 30/31-152-94;
• twenty-two wells, 2560-acre unit: sections 6,7,18 and 19-151-94 

Because this will be an Antelope-Sanish well, my hunch is that the well site is a bit farther to the east.  

The two wells in Antelope-Sanish which appear to be the closest:

• 22505, 1,437, EOG, Clarks Creek 100-0805H, two sections; 38 stages; 4.2 million lbs; Three Forks, NOS; Antelope-Sanish, t6/12; cum 403K 11/19; off line 7/19; remains off line 11/19; a very non-descript well;
• 20550, 1,478, EOG, Clarks Creek 10-0805H, two sections; 37 stages; 4.3 million lbs; middle Bakken; Antelope-Sanish, t6/12; cum 436K 11/19; off line 7/19; remains off line 11/19; a very non-descript well;

The wells in the graphics on this page:

• 34380, drl, 1280-acres; EOG, Clarks Creek 151-0720H, Antelope-Sanish;
• 34677, drl, 320-acres; EOG, Clarks Creek 65-07H, Antelope- Sanish;
• 34678, ros (jan, 2020), 320-acres; Clarks Creek 63-07H, Antelope-Sanish;

• 20890, 600, EOG, Clarks Creek 11-0706H, Clarks Creek, t3/12; cum 368K 11/19; four sections; 33-053-03615; fracked 1/7/12; 2.7 million gallons of water; 84% water by mass; 22 stages; 4.1 million lbs proppant; steady but nothing great;
• 20892, 1,352, EOG, Clarks Creek 16-0706H, Clarks Creek, t3/12; cum 364K 11/19; off line, 7/19; back on line 11/19; four sections; 6/7/18/19-151094;
• 20891, 603, four sections;

Off to the west:

• 36409, loc, 2560-acres; EOG, Clarks Creek 44-0701H, Clarks Creek,
• 36410, conf, producing,EOG, Clarks Creek 45-0705H, Antelope, a nice well;
• 36411, conf, EOG, Clarks Creek 46-0706H, Clarks Creek; 33-053-09056; fracked 8/28/19 - 9/18/19; 11.55 million gallons of water; 84.4% water by mass; producing,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2019	70818	91912
10-2019	40453	44377

• 36412, conf, producing, EOG, Clarks Creek 47-0706H, Clarks Creek, a nice well;

• 36413, conf, producing, EOG, Clarks Creek 1-6-0724H; Clarks Creek; 33-053-09058; 11.36 million gallons of water; 81% water by mass; fracked 7/25/19 - 8/23/19;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2019	73804	122169
10-2019	75855	89623
9-2019	51832	68307

• 36414, loc, EOG, Clarks Creek 17-0719H, Clarks Creek; 1920-acres; sections 19/18/7-151-94 (pending)
• 36415, conf, EOG, Clarks Creek 18-0719H, Clarks Creek, Clarks Creek oil field; 33-053-09060; no frack data available at FracFocus;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2019	48555	79616
10-2019	83464	93516
9-2019	86854	10417

• 36416, conf, EOG, Clarks Creek 105-0719H, Clarks Creek; 33-053-09061, fracked 7/20/19 - 8/22/19; 11.5 million gallons of water; 83% water by mass, producing;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2019	39737	92288
10-2019	71611	96448
9-2019	66951	87763

• 32797, 2,172, EOG, Clarks Creek 72-0706H, 55 stages; 13.6 million lbs, middle Bakken; Clarks Creek, t7/18; cum 265K 11/19; four sections; 6/7/18/19-151-94;
• 32800, 2,615, EOG, Clarks Creek 155-0706H, 55 stages; 13.6 million lbs; Three Forks; Clarks Creek, t6/18; cum 309K 11/19; four sections;
• 32798, 1,744, EOG, Clarks Creek 107-0706H, Clarks Creek, t7/18; cum 264K 11/19; four sections;
• 32799, 1,873, EOG, Clarks Creek 24-0706H, Clarks Creek, t6/18; cum 335K 11/19; four sections; a 71K well;
  
• 34448, 1,380, EOG, Clarks Creek 108-0706H, Clarks Creek, t6/18; cum 193K 11/19; four sections;

• 32796, 2,518, EOG, Clarks Creek 73-0719H, Clarks Creek, t6/17; cum 335K 11/19; four sections; 6/7/18/19-151-94;
• 32795, 2,204, EOG, Clarks Creek 110-0719H, Clarks Creek, t6/17; cum 339K 11/19; four sections;
• 32794, 2,382, EOG, Clarks Creek 74-0719H, Clarks Creek, t6/17; cum 366K 11/19; four sections;
• 33050, 1,703, EOG, Clarks Creek 75-0719HX, Clarks Creek, t6/17; cum 458K 19/19; four sections; off line 9/19; remains off line 11/19;

I count about twelve wells with 2560-acre spacing.

Notes From All Over, Part 1-- The $12-Lego-Kobe NBA Minifigure Worth $100 -- January 29, 2020

First things first: the other day I was talking about Lego. I was not aware that Lego had a license with the NBA and sold NBA basketball player mini-figures. These figures go for about $10/mini-figure. Our local "Bricks & Minifigs" has about six mini-NBA figures, each priced about $12. Last week the "Kobe Bryant" figure was selling for $10 - $12. Today? $75.

See eBay link.

Next up: CBO report out. It appears the revenue raised through the "Trump tax cut" has completely paid for the tax cuts. If that makes sense. A report heard on the run. Need to see hard copy of the report.

Now, back to oil and natural gas.

The monthly natural gas fill rate, link here: could we see a new five-year maximum?

Two New Permits -- January 29, 2020

Disclaimer: earnings done quickly; on the run; content and typographical errors likely. Dynamic. 

Tesla: shares up 4% after report; $621/share; up $40; up almost 7%; later shares up $68, up almost 12%;

• earnings: 21 cents better than expected; $2.14 vs $1.72;
• revenue: $7.38 billion vs  $7.02 billion
• Tesla: makes 500,000 cars
• Ford: makes 5,000,000 cars
• Tesla market cap greater than GM/F combined

Microsoft:

• very strong beat
• revenue: better than expected, and the bar was set high by analysts; $36.9 billion vs $35.68 billion;
• EPS: $1.51 vs $1.32
• MSFT: up $1.47; then earnings released; up $3.47

Facebook: not as good as investors had wanted; whisper number not mentioned;

• EPS: $2.56; a 3-cent beat
• revenue, $21.08 billion vs $20.89 billion; lightly higher than expected
• trading down $13.43; down 6% in after-hours trading
• investors unhappy

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

*************************

Back to the Bakken

Bakken production going forward, 2020, Platts link here, data points (archived):

• North Dakota Bakken shale gas production projected to climb 10% in 2020
• production grew 20% in 2019
• five processing facilities to come online, expand
• Bakken gas production is expected to grow by 10% in 2020, before slowing down to about 4% annually from 2021 through 2025,
• last year (2019), Bakken producers relied on well completions, or bringing drilled but uncompleted wells online, to keep production growing. However, one of the lingering constraints within the basin is insufficient processing capacity and natural gas takeaway, which has caused producers to consistently miss gas capture targets established by the North Dakota Industrial Commission.To combat the issue there has been a push for additional infrastructure and as a result: four gas processing plants came online during the second half of 2019 and another five are in the planning stages with in-service dates spread out over the next two years. 

Active rigs:

$53.14	1/29/2020	01/29/2019	01/29/2018	01/29/2017	01/29/2016
Active Rigs	54	64	57	38	45

Two new permits, #37356 - #37357, inclusive

• Operators: EOG, Whiting
• Fields: Clarks Creek (McKenzie); Pronghorn oil field (McKenzie County)
• Comments:
• EOG has a permit for a Clarks Creek well in Sanish-Antelope, section 7-151-94; from the daily activity report, January 28, 2020;
• Whiting has a permit for a Helling permit in Pronghorn oil field, section 19-150-101 

permits renewed: pending
permits canceled: pending
producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed: pending

West Fargo, ND, USAF Veteran -- Rolex Watch -- January 29, 2020

First things first: google Fox Business Antiques Roadshow guest floored by value of old Rolex watch West Fargo North Dakota. Yeah, I know, it's long. Cut and paste. Data points:

• West Fargo, ND, "Antiques Roadshow"
• seller paid $345.97 for the watch in 1974 while serving in the USAF
• ordered in 1974 at the BX -- came in April, 1975
• 1971: draft number, #7
• munitions in the USAF
• with a 10% discount
• the watch
• will sell for "six figures"
• Paul Newman model
• "Oyster" -- extremely, extremely rare;
• "Roadshow" estimate: $400,000 at auction 
• this particular one: $500,000 to $700,000
• never worn; if worn, it will drop to $400,000

Politics:

• Hillary: recalculating, recalculating, recalculating
• Pocahontas; Sanders: last-minute plea for donations; "we fell short"
• “We have some bad news,” Warren’s campaign wrote in an email to supporters late Tuesday night. “We fell short of our daily goal yesterday, which means we're already pacing behind to meet our goal of $3.5 million by the FEC deadline on Friday.”
• That goal for the last five days of the month averages out to $700,000 per day, Warren’s biggest fundraising goal to date. (By comparison, Pete Buttigieg’s campaign asked voters to chip in $1 million, about $200,000 per day).
• And both Bernie and Pocahontas are stuck in their Senate chambers with no access to their donors most of the day, most of the week
• Hillary: pushing for two witnesses each from each US senator; let this drag on for months;

***********************************

One Exception

From the iconoclast, John Hands, Cosmo Sapiens: Human Evolution from the Origin of the Universe, c. 2015, page 583, from his list of 39 conclusions, on evolution of species:

12. With one exception, surviving lineages [surviving species, surviving clades] ended in states of the last species, with some minor reversible morphological changes ....

13. That one exception was the human species, in which consciousness had risen to the point that it had become conscious of itself: its members not only know but know that they know; uniquely, they possess the ability to reflect on themselves and on the cosmos of which they know they are a part.

Wow. Time to go to Costoc and reflect on really good beef choices at really, really good prices.

You Can Store It A Long, Long Time -- Farmers Need To Buy Larger Propane Tanks, Along With Larger Tractors -- January 29, 2020

From the EIA's weekly petroleum report:

• propane/propylene inventories actually decreased by 3.6 million bbls last week but are still almost 30% above the five-year average for this time of year; farmers would be wise to buy larger propane tanks -- along with larger tractors -- said President Trump later today.

AAPL: after the giddiness  has died down (or has it?) what is AAPL doing today? Up over 2% -- now trading up over $7/share, trading at $325 (almost).

BRK: Buffett finally cuts his losses -- after twenty years -- cardinal mistake of investing -- falling in love with your portfolio. It is being reported that "Warren Buffett gives up on newspaper empire with $140 million sale to Lee Enterprises. Details:

• assets sold: BH Media Unit and its 30 daily newspapers
• Lee Enterprises: publishes 46 newspapers across 21 states
• 2018: newspaper circulation fell to its lowest level since 1940
• the deal gives Lee over one-half billion dollars in long-term financing at a 9% annual rate -- wow -- Buffett still knows how to make a deal, and he loves interest/dividends as long as he's not paying 
• a half-billion dollars at 9% annual rate -- wow

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Recent dividend announcements:

• MPC: increases dividend to 58 cents; pays 4.4%
• WMB: increases dividend to 40 cents; pays 7.39% (and it's not a foreign company; and it's not an MLP, as far as I know)
• Hess Midstream Partners: increases dividend to 43 cents; pays 7.13%
• Oasis Midstream Partners: increases dividend to 54 cents, up from 51.5 cents; pays 12.63%; shares at $15.54; one-year target at $20.33;
• Nextera Energy Partners: increases dividend to 54 cents; pays 3.7%
• Dominion Energy: increases dividend to 94 cents; pays 4.48%
• Yum! Brands: increases dividend to 47 cents; pays 1.79%
• Valero Energy: increased dividend to 98 cents; pays 4.38%
• Pfizer: increasing dividend by 5.6%; new dividend, 38 cents, up from 36 cents

Attention detail, know your customer:

You know those "push bars" across swinging glass doors in fast food restaurants. At McDonald's, the door for PlayPlace has two such "push bars": one for adults at the regular height, and then one about two feet up fro the floor for four-year olds. Very, very clever. I'm impressed.

From the iconoclast, John Hands, Cosmo Sapiens: Human Evolution from the Origin of the Universe, c. 2015, page 581:

We can reasonably infer from empirical evidence that we (Earth-bound humans) evolved from primordial energy into carbon-based, mobile, behaviourally sophisticated lifeforms possessing the most complex thing in the known universe: a human brain.

However, that evolution was only possible because the virtually limitless interactions of matter and energy were constrained by a series of physical and chemical laws plus the fine-tuning of six cosmological parameters, two dimensionless constants, and three parameters of nucleosynthesis.

Moreover, this evolution required a planet with a limited mass range that possessed necessary chemicals and was in a limited part of a galaxy and a limited part of a solar system where it received just enough of the right kind of energy for several billion years while being protected from fatal energy radiations and collisions from comets and other space debris.

Not to mention the twenty amino acids out of hundreds to choose from, and the inexplicable peptide bond.

Are We Already Seeing The China Coronavirus Effect? EIA Weekly Petroleum Report -- January 29, 2020

WTI: before the report --

• $53.20 (down 28 cents) at 9:21 a.m. CT; report to be released at 9:30 a.m. CT.

WTI: after the report --

• $53.24 (down 24 cents) at 9:321 a.m. CT; report released at 9:30 a.m. CT.

Link here.

• US crude oil in storage increased by 3.5 million bbls;
• US crude oil in storage now stands at 431.7 million bbls, about 2% below the 5-year average for this time of year
• refiners are operating at an incredibly low 87.2% of their operable capacity; it is rare to see this number drop below 90% 
• total products supplied over the last four-week period is down 4% from same  period last year
• something not seen often: jet fuel product supplied was actually down, not much, but down by 0.8% -- China travel? Seeing the effect already?
• and look at this, propane/propylene inventories actually decreased by 3.6 million bbls last week but are still almost 30% above the five-year average for this time of year; farmers would be wise to buy larger propane tanks -- along with larger tractors

I'll check the gasoline supplies later, but I bet the US is awash in gasoline.

In North Texas, the DFW area, regular gasoline is easily available below $2.00 / gallon. Lowest price for regular in the metroplex in just outside of Dallas at $1.84 / gallon reported on the radio yesterday. At Gas Buddy today, $1.88. 

Re-balancing:

Week	Week Ending	Change	Million Bbls Storage
Week 0	November 21, 2018	4.9	446.9
Week 1	November 28, 2018	3.6	450.5
Week 2	December 6, 2018	-7.3	443.2
Week 3	December 12, 2018	-1.2	442.0
Week 4	December 19, 2018	-0.5	441.5
Week 5	December 28, 2018	0.0	441.4
Week 49	October 30, 2019	5.7	438.9
Week 50	November 6, 2019	7.9	446.8
Week 51	November 14, 2019	2.2	449.0
Week 52	November 20, 2019	1.4	450.4
Week 53	November 27, 2019	1.6	452.0
Week 54	December 4, 2019	-4.9	447.1
Week 55	December 11, 2019	0.8	447.9
Week 56	December 18, 2019	-1.1	446.8
Week 57	December 27, 2019	-5.5	441.4
Week 58	January 3, 2020	-11.5	429.9
Week 59	January 8, 2020	1.2	431.1
Week 60	January 15, 2020	-2.5	428.5
Week 61	January 23, 2020	-0.4	428.1
Week 62	January 29, 2020	3.5	431.7

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- January 29, 2020

Biggest non-story today: Boeing reports loss. But it's a huge story. Not so much for Boeing but for the analysts. How can they get it so wrong? Having said that, Boeing stock up 2% in early morning trading. But how bad were the forecasts?

• earnings:
• analysts forecast a 70% drop in earnings to $1.73/share
• in fact, Boeing posted a huge loss: $2.33 / share
• revenue: 
• analysts forecast revenue would be down 23%; to $21.67 billion
• in fact, revenue fell well below $20 billion, at $17.91 billion
• even defense revenue fell 13%
• negative free cash flow of $2.67 billion vs positive free cash flow of $2.45 billion a year earlier

Next to fall: GE if the Boeing debacle isn't resolved in Boeing's favor by June, 2020. Others agree.

*******************************

EIA: For The Archives

Annual Energy Outlook: 2020

Link here. I hope Sophia pulls this chart up in 2050 to see how everything turned out.

Graphics:

US gross energy trade:

• 21st century: the golden age for the US when it comes to energy
• look at the wide gap between exports and imports
• the gap continues well as far out as one can see

US energy consumption by sector:

• transportation hardly changes
• industrial grows nicely
• subtle, but it appears electric power grows slightly

Electricity generation from selected fuels:

• the pie grows larger -- significantly larger;
• from "4,000" in 2010 to "5,200" in 2050
• if renewables grow to 38% that will be huge -- 
• natural gas, on a percentage basis, holds its own -- in a pie that is growing larger