Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- January 29, 2020

Biggest non-story today: Boeing reports loss. But it's a huge story. Not so much for Boeing but for the analysts. How can they get it so wrong? Having said that, Boeing stock up 2% in early morning trading. But how bad were the forecasts?

• earnings:
• analysts forecast a 70% drop in earnings to $1.73/share
• in fact, Boeing posted a huge loss: $2.33 / share
• revenue: 
• analysts forecast revenue would be down 23%; to $21.67 billion
• in fact, revenue fell well below $20 billion, at $17.91 billion
• even defense revenue fell 13%
• negative free cash flow of $2.67 billion vs positive free cash flow of $2.45 billion a year earlier

Next to fall: GE if the Boeing debacle isn't resolved in Boeing's favor by June, 2020. Others agree.

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EIA: For The Archives

Annual Energy Outlook: 2020

Link here. I hope Sophia pulls this chart up in 2050 to see how everything turned out.

Graphics:

US gross energy trade:

• 21st century: the golden age for the US when it comes to energy
• look at the wide gap between exports and imports
• the gap continues well as far out as one can see

US energy consumption by sector:

• transportation hardly changes
• industrial grows nicely
• subtle, but it appears electric power grows slightly

Electricity generation from selected fuels:

• the pie grows larger -- significantly larger;
• from "4,000" in 2010 to "5,200" in 2050
• if renewables grow to 38% that will be huge -- 
• natural gas, on a percentage basis, holds its own -- in a pie that is growing larger