When The Going Gets Tough, The Tough Get Going -- December 30, 2020

I've been thinking about "this" for the past year but I am unable to articulate it, so I cannot post my thoughts, and generally, when I get too far in front of my headlights, I get a fair amount of pushback from anonymous experts.

I have a thin skin. I don't like the pushback, so I generally try to stay "within my headlights." 

We're currently in "Bakken 4.0." It's very possible we move to Bakken 5.0 if the following four "things" converge as expected:

• the Biden administration/environmentalists significantly impact the "US shale revolution" (which I think they will);
• the relative stability in the Mideast seen in the past four years changes for the worse (which I think it will); 
• global demand for oil increases more quickly than anticipated (not sure about this); and,
• price of oil trends higher (WTI trends toward $60) (not sure about this).
  

This post looks at the new BR permits as perhaps the post we will come back to a year from now to demonstrate how things evolved in the Bakken if, in fact, we move to Bakken 5.0.

Two dots to connect. First, the new BR "Renegade" and "Chuckwagon permits. See these two posts:

• the Renegade wells; I've never followed the Chuckwagon wells so for now, will have to link the Renegade wells;
  
• the new Renegade / Chuckwagon permits.

Then look at this old Chuckwagon well:

• 20528, 2,892, BR, Chuckwagon 21-15MBH, 33-053-03510; Sand Creek, t12/11; cum 213K 10/20; recent production (see full production profile at this post):

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2020	26	13747	14132	18996	34495	0	34495
BAKKEN	9-2020	27	16402	16213	24009	37361	0	37361
BAKKEN	8-2020	23	11701	11494	26238	30070	3724	26346
BAKKEN	7-2020	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2020	2	0	0	5227	313	0	313
BAKKEN	3-2020	1	87	87	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2019	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2019	6	128	488	131	470	0	470
BAKKEN	9-2019	30	563	416	563	2511	0	2511
BAKKEN	8-2019	31	758	982	754	2855	2395	460

From the file report:

• sundry form, approx start date: Ocober 17, 2019: BR respectfully requested to re-stimulate this well; a plug and perf stimulation followed by a coil tubing cleanout;
• the original frack: stimulation, 10/3/11; 20 stages; 2.3 million lbs proppant;

FracFocus:

• first frack, 10/2/11 - 10/2/11 (one day): 1.5 million gallons of water; 83.3% water by mass;
• second frack, 3/24/20 - 4/1/20 (one week): 8.3 million gallons of water; 87.3% water by mass;