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Wednesday, December 30, 2020

When The Going Gets Tough, The Tough Get Going -- December 30, 2020

I've been thinking about "this" for the past year but I am unable to articulate it, so I cannot post my thoughts, and generally, when I get too far in front of my headlights, I get a fair amount of pushback from anonymous experts.

I have a thin skin. I don't like the pushback, so I generally try to stay "within my headlights." 

We're currently in "Bakken 4.0." It's very possible we move to Bakken 5.0 if the following four "things" converge as expected:

  • the Biden administration/environmentalists significantly impact the "US shale revolution" (which I think they will);
  • the relative stability in the Mideast seen in the past four years changes for the worse (which I think it will); 
  • global demand for oil increases more quickly than anticipated (not sure about this); and,
  • price of oil trends higher (WTI trends toward $60) (not sure about this).

This post looks at the new BR permits as perhaps the post we will come back to a year from now to demonstrate how things evolved in the Bakken if, in fact, we move to Bakken 5.0.

Two dots to connect. First, the new BR "Renegade" and "Chuckwagon permits. See these two posts:

Then look at this old Chuckwagon well:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20202613747141321899634495034495
BAKKEN9-20202716402162132400937361037361
BAKKEN8-20202311701114942623830070372426346
BAKKEN7-20201100000
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-20200000000
BAKKEN4-202020052273130313
BAKKEN3-2020187870000
BAKKEN2-20200000000
BAKKEN1-20200000000
BAKKEN12-20191000000
BAKKEN11-20190000000
BAKKEN10-201961284881314700470
BAKKEN9-201930563416563251102511
BAKKEN8-20193175898275428552395460

From the file report:

  • sundry form, approx start date: Ocober 17, 2019: BR respectfully requested to re-stimulate this well; a plug and perf stimulation followed by a coil tubing cleanout;
  • the original frack: stimulation, 10/3/11; 20 stages; 2.3 million lbs proppant;

FracFocus:

  • first frack, 10/2/11 - 10/2/11 (one day): 1.5 million gallons of water; 83.3% water by mass;
  • second frack, 3/24/20 - 4/1/20 (one week): 8.3 million gallons of water; 87.3% water by mass;

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