First things first. This is really cool. When the NDIC Director's Cut came out in mid-December with October, 2020, data, the preliminary numbers suggested that month-over-month there was a slight decline in North Dakota crude oil production, October/September.
My "blog title" at the time: October production exceeded that of September. I was pretty sure that when the official figures came out later the "newer" / revised numbers would show that increase. And, in fact, they did, according to the EIA 914 for October, 2020.
The preliminary data at that time, from the NDIC Director's Cut:
Crude oil production:
- October: 1,222,871 bopd (preliminary)
- September: 1,223,107 bopd
- delta: 236 bopd
- delta: 0.00%
Now, the EIA data for October, 2020.
In kbpd.
Texas:
- Oct: 4,632
- Sept: 4,631
- up 0.1%
North Dakota:
- Oct: 1,218
- Sept: 1,212
- up: 0.5%
Whoo-hoo.
Over at the sidebar at the right, I asked, somewhat tongue-in-cheek, which would survive the meltdown best -- the Bakken or the Permian.
In the big scheme of things, the Permian did better through the slowdown, but at least for the most recent production numbers, North Dakota proved more resilient, up 0.5% m/m vs 01% for Texas.
But I'll give "it" to the Permian.
Anything else of note in the most recent EIA figures? Month-over-month, change:
- US: down 4.1%
- Alaska: up 4.0%
- Federal Offshore Gulf of Mexico: down a whopping 29.8% (even worse, year-over-year, down 44.8%). That should please the Biden enviromentalists.
- New Mexico: up 5.6% month/month; up 13.3% y/y
Permian wells (in general, on average) are not as productive as Bakken wells. However...
ReplyDelete1. The taxes are lower.
2. The service costs are lower. Especially in winter, but also in summer.
3. There's a much richer option value in terms of alternate strata. Layers that are not immediately economical but which may be in the future.
4. In NM, there is a rush to drill wells prior to the Biden administration (a little like reservation land in ND).
Agree completely.
ReplyDelete1. The tax differential between Texas and North Dakota is one of my blind spots. I keep forgetting about that.
2. It's now water under the bridge but one wonders how much the huge price of entry into the Permian really offset the state tax differentials. I don't know, but upfront costs to acquire acreage in the Permian some years ago was mindboggling and some companies are paying the price now.
3. You know it's interesting as I ramble: under the Biden administration there will be huge challenges at the surface (regulations, shift to green energy, etc) but in the Bakken there certainly seems to be some interesting technological changes occurring below the ground. That may end up being the story for the next several years -- the "contrast" as it were with issues on the ground vs accelerated technology changes below the ground.