Reality sucks: stocks not soaring despite likelihood that at least two vaccines will soon be approved for emergency use. See reader's poll at sidebar at the right. Half of readers responding suggest we won't see universal access to vaccine before March of next year (2021) -- four months from now.
Home sales: 14-year high in October, 2020. Said to be due to low interest rates, desire for pricier houses. No: desire to get out of NYC and San Francisco.
Schools closed in NYC: parents "scurrying" for backup. I don't know what's going on in NYC but I can say with "authority" that some school districts in north Texas were well prepared going into the possibility of a second wave. It's really quite remarkable. Their program keeps improving and it's scalable, here in GCISD. If it's accurate that the closure of NY schools left parents in a bind it suggests the school districts let the students down.
Free internet: schools hand out free iPads for remote learners (and even for students in the classroom). The school districts (i.e., the taxpayers) also need to ensure that every student issued an iPad has home access to the internet. Technology is such that "free" internet could be throttled for speed necessary for schoolwork but not for gaming; available only during school hours. Homework? No one wants homework anyway.
NYC: will the mayor finally kill off Macy's? From The WSJ. Tea leaves: Macy's will likely join Sears, K-Mart, JC Penney, others. We will need new sponsor for annual parade.
Does anyone even read Consumer Reports any more? Ranking reliability of cars.
Weather: we've had an incredibly nice autumn. Sophia and I have really enjoyed biking in the local park the last two days. An aside: this park was closed due to Covid last spring. Now, with the second wave much worse than the first here in north Texas, the park is wide open, and full of folks. The park has increased "services," including working drinking fountains which had been turned off during the first wave last March.
Mild November weather stings natural-gas prices. From The WSJ. Forecasts signal warmer temperatures in many states over the next two weeks; bearish development for natural gas.
Austria: progressive paid-leave and child-care policies failed to close the gender pay gap -- close reading of the article suggests the policies made the gender pay gap wider. But it felt good. From MarcketWatch. My hunch: the "test" needs to be continued for at least another decade or so.
WSJ: one has to remember the target audience for The WSJ -- millionaires and billionaires. From the newspaper yesterday: second homes are driving the US's Covid-19 housing boom. Demand for vacation properties is growing twice as fast as demand for primary homes, as affluent Americans look for more space to ride out the pandemic. "Affluent" = millionaires with at least a million in disposable cash. Again, I would need to see that statistics. As said earlier, the 2020 housing boom is being driven by folks fleeing NYC and San Francisco, not buying second homes in Wyoming.
NFL last night. Another point after touchdown missed by team competing for #1 in its conference. Are you kidding me? Fight on field probably resulted in the win after the penalty assessed. Another penalty and another two points. These are among the top teams in the NFL?
Pop quiz. See if you can spot the error in this table ranking turkey producers. From WorldAtlas.
More recent stats almost everywhere, including this site.
the world and its stock market is getting ready for a Jan RESET..the vaccines might be great, but you have to take them to make them effective.50 % of the USA is heading one way , the other 50 % the other, so how will this work out..Chaos, Real or Imagined does not a good world, nor stock market. i was looking at the 2008-09 reset.This will be discussed more by others before Christmas, ( unless that is cancelled) ( the WHO today suggested you go to a PARK for Christmas). here is one article from Breitbart based on JP Morgan.. The peasants in Lockdown MN are all in there hovel getting ready for a turkey day ,with NO parade, no company, and the BLM oval ball is not worth watching, in fact many including me has sworn off this , like giving something up for lent.. but this is not really a sacrifice.. https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2020/11/20/jpmorgan-economists-forecast-grim-double-dip-contraction-first-quarter-2021/ don
ReplyDelete1. If there is a huge decline in the market: a great buying opportunity.
Delete2. But the $4 trillion stimulus bill is being written.
And this is why I see it as a huge buying opportunity: the first paragraph of that linked Breitbart article:
DeleteWhile most economists have been projecting growth throughout the year in 2021, JPMorgan economists now expect a one percent decline in the first quarter. The economy will then pick up steam, expanding at a 4.5 percent annualized rate in the second quarter, 6.5 percent in the third quarter, and 3.8 in the fourth quarter, the economists forecast. For the full year, they project robust growth of 3.4 percent.
6.5% growth in 3Q21.
"Robust" is always nice to see in a story like this.
In fact, I think the 6.5% in 3Q21 might be a bit low if there is a $4 trillion stimulus bill aimed to bailout out cities and states; move to renewable energy (that $4 trillion will employ a lot of folks putting up wind towers); and, bailout the airlines.
We'll have a positive 4Q20, and then a positive 2Q21, so if there is a one percent contraction in 1Q21 no recession. Most economists define a recession as two quarters of negative growth.
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