Monday, November 16, 2020 -- Get Ready For A Wild Ride -- A Lot Happening This Monday Morning

First things first: focus on fracking posted. Link here. Note lede:

• Global oil supply in October was short by 2.5 million bopd despite rising production

Shell: to cut production at its largest refinery in the world by 50%.

Oil prices pre-market trading:

• WTI: up 2%
• OPEC basket down 1%

OPEC basket, link here: yo-yo; down again:

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Back to the Bakken

NB:

• Slawson, perhaps one of the most conservative, most successful independents, family-owned, private drillers in the Bakken has two active rigs (as reported by NDIC) -- for me, this is huge:
• MRO: at three active rigs, as reported by NDIC; again, huge development. Later: that turned out to be a head fake. One rig coming up; one rig coming down. Slawson has one rig; and MRO has two rigs, same thing (one was coming up, one was coming down -- November 17, 2020.]
  

Active rigs:

$41.50	11/16/2020	11/16/2019	11/16/2018	11/16/2017	11/16/2016
Active Rigs	16	57	63	55	38

Operators:

• MRO (3)
• CLR (2)
• WPX (2)
• BR (2)
• Hess (2), but one is drilling SWD well
• Slawson (2)
• Petro-Hunt
• Oasis
• Midwest AgEnergy Group, LLC (it sure is taking them a long time to drill one well)

And just like that, drilling stopped. One well coming off confidential list (actually two but I'm not interested in #37380, a CCS science project)

• 36005, conf, BR, Kermit 3-8-32UTFH, Pershing, Rink/Kermit wells are tracked here;

RBN Energy: physical gas flow constraints, volatility arise at Henry Hub, part 2. Archived.

With the rise of LNG feedgas demand in southern Louisiana, physical natural gas flows at Henry Hub have been climbing. As such, volumes moving through the U.S. benchmark pricing location are increasingly affected by swings in LNG feedgas deliveries, as well as in the gas supply flows into southern Louisiana that serve that demand. Those impacts have become particularly evident in recent months as nearby LNG export capacity utilization went from a trough this summer due to cargo cancellations, to being erratic during late summer and fall as hurricanes disrupted marine traffic and facility operations, and, in more recent days, to being at full bore at most facilities. In conjunction with brimming storage and pipeline maintenance in the area, this has meant more operational constraints and volatility in flows and pricing at the hub. Today, we continue our series on the changing dynamics in and around Henry Hub. 

This is Part 2 of our updated analysis on Henry Hub gas flows. As we said in Part 1, Henry, which is encompassed within Vermilion Parish, LA, has numerous distinctions that give it the benchmark status in the U.S. natural gas market: it’s been the center of the gas spot-trading universe for 30 years; it’s the delivery mechanism for the third-largest commodity futures trading instrument in the world — the CME/NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas futures contract; and, after decades of being the basis of domestic gas deals, spot and futures prices at the hub also now serve as the index for U.S. LNG export contracts.