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Saturday, November 28, 2020

Investing -- November 28, 2020

I've come to the conclusion after thirty years of investing, that investing in companies that pay dividends is not the the best way to invest. But it's hard to get out of that habit. 

It's my gut feeling that retirees like me chase companies paying high dividends to raise cash to invest elsewhere. We might do better buying non-dividend paying growth stocks and taking capital gains (taxed at a lower rate, and taken when we want) in lieu of dividends. We just don't have that discipline, and it's so hard to sell an appreciating stock. It's natural to hold 100 shares of "something" in an account rather than 98 shares.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Over at SeekingAlpha: best "Black Friday" dividend deals -- three value blue chips to buy now. 

Let's just cut to the chase:

  • ATT (T): 7.17%
  • energy:
    • Chevron (CVX) when it was yielding 7.7%. It has soared 37% since then
    • ONEOK (OKE) yielding 13%. It is up 30%
    • Enbridge (ENB) yielding 8.4%. It is up 13%
  • Prudential Financial (PRU): 5.6%

Then this article, mostly based on Kiplinger,  four other analysts. First list:

  • NRG
  • EPD
  • CVS
  • WMB
  • FANG
  • EOG
  • EXC
  • MPC
  • C
  • O

The second list, 39 companies:

  • NRG
  • CVS
  • EPD
  • FANG
  • LT
  • JNJ
  • EOG
  • WMB
  • EXC
  • HD
  • C
  • SRE
  • MCD
  • DVN
  • MPC
  • APD
  • O
  • NI
  • PG
  • PSX
  • COP
  • VLO
  • ABBV
  • KO
  • CVX
  • WMT
  • BKR
  • ETR
  • VZ
  • BX
  • AVGO
  • MMM
  • FITB
  • TXN
  • BXP
  • TFC
  • EMR
  • CFG
  • ETX

Second 39-stock list (mostly just a re-ranking); top six:

  • EPD
  • WMC
  • VLO
  • CVX
  • MRO
  • PSX

There seems to be a trend here. 

If natural gas prices and oil prices were to rise significantly during a Biden administration, this list could get much more interesting very, very quickly. 

And finally this, also from SeekingAlpha:

Layoffs swell at the House of Mouse
Walt Disney is letting go of 32,000 workers - primarily at its theme parks business - marking an increase from the 28,000 it announced in September, 2020. 
The cuts will go into effect in the first half of 2021 due to the "current climate, including COVID-19 impacts, and changing environment in which we are operating."

Disney's California-based theme parks have faced prolonged closures, while limited attendance at its parks in Florida has weighed on the company.

Internationally, Disneyland Paris was forced to close again late last month when France imposed a new lockdown, though the company's theme parks in Shanghai, Hong Kong and Tokyo remain open.
Worst haul in decades
The only major Thanksgiving title arriving in movie theaters this year is DreamWorks' The Croods: A New Age
At best, the film could reach between $10 million - $15million during its first five days. 
Comparing that to the last decade, the five-day Thanksgiving spread - consisting of the Wednesday before Thanksgiving through Sunday - has resulted in more than $230 million in ticket sales each year. 
The annual box office is already a fraction of what it was last year, tumbling more than 77% to $2.18B. Since August, when major theater chains reopened, through November 22, 2020, the box office has only collected $279 million (during the same period last year, the box office brought in $2.86 billion).

By the way, with the "movie" story, there's a bigger story here. 

Movie franchises are at huge risk:

  • the James Bond franchise
  • the MCU franchise
  • the DCU franchise
  • others of which I am unaware

Did you all catch the jab at Governor Newsom of California by the Disney statement?

The cuts will go into effect in the first half of 2021 due to the "current climate, including COVID-19 impacts, and changing environment in which we are operating."
And that's exactly right -- Gavin Newsom's draconian lockdown measures are much, much worse for the California economy than the disease itself.

By the way, see if you can find the ticker symbol for Dreamworks.

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