EIA, weekly petroleum: Link here. API build reported yesterday did not materialize in EIA report.
- weekly US crude oil inventories: decreased by 1.0 million bbls
- weekly US crude oil inventories now stand at 488.1
- weekly US crude oil inventories are about 10% above the ever-increasing five-year average
- refineries operated at 72.9% capacity;
- imports: down almost 14% from same four-week period last year
- imports averaged 5.1 million bpd, down 167,000 bpd the previous week
- propane/propylene inventories are about 11% above the five-year average
- jet fuel product supplied was down 46% compared with same four-week period last year
- gasoline demand will be reported later today
Re-balancing (US crude oil imports):
|
Week |
Date of Report= |
Change |
Million Bbls Storage |
Over/under 5-year average |
|
Week 0 |
November 21, 2018 |
4.9 |
446.9 |
|
|
Week 1 |
November 28, 2018 |
3.6 |
450.5 |
|
|
Week 2 |
December 6, 2018 |
-7.3 |
443.2 |
|
|
Week 3 |
December 12, 2018 |
-1.2 |
442.0 |
|
|
Week 4 |
December 19, 2018 |
-0.5 |
441.5 |
|
|
Week 5 |
December 28, 2018 |
0.0 |
441.4 |
|
|
Week 84 |
July 15, 2020 |
-7.5 |
531.7 |
17% |
|
Week 85 |
July 22, 2020 |
4.9 |
536.6 |
19% |
|
Week 86 |
July 29, 2020 |
-10.6 |
526.0 |
17% |
|
Week 87 |
August 5, 2020 |
-7.4 |
518.6 |
16% |
|
Week 93 |
September 16, 2020 |
-4.4 |
496.0 |
14% |
|
Week 94 |
September 23, 2020 |
-1.6 |
494.4 |
13% |
|
Week 95 |
September 30, 2020 |
-2.0 |
492.4 |
|
|
Week 96 |
October 7, 2020 |
0.5 |
492.9 |
12% |
|
Week 97 |
October 15, 2020 |
-3.8 |
489.1 |
11% |
|
Week 98 |
October 21, 2020 |
-1.0 |
488.1 |
10% |
Crude Oil imports:
|
Week (week-over-week) |
Date of Report |
Raw Data, millions of bbls |
Change (millions of bbls) |
Four-week period comparison |
|
Week 0 |
March 11, 2029 |
6.4 |
0.174 |
|
|
Week 1 |
March 18, 2020 |
6.5 |
0.127 |
|
|
Week 2 |
March 25, 2020 |
6.1 |
-0.422 |
|
|
Week 13 |
June 10, 2020 |
6.4 |
0.000 |
-13.300% |
|
Week 22 |
August 12, 2020 |
5.6 |
-0.389 |
-20.400% |
|
Week 23 |
August 19, 2020 |
5.7 |
0.109 |
-21.700% |
|
Week 24 |
August 26, 2020 |
5.9 |
0.185 |
-16.900% |
|
Week 25 |
September 2, 2020 |
4.9 |
-1.000 |
-20.200% |
|
Week 26 |
September 10, 2020 |
5.4 |
0.500 |
-17.900% |
|
Week 27 |
September 16, 2020 |
5.0 |
-0.416 |
-20.100% |
|
Week 28 |
September 23, 2020 |
5.2 |
0.160 |
-24.200% |
|
Week 29 |
September 30, 2020 |
5.1 |
0.045 |
-21.600% |
|
Week 30 |
October 7, 2020 |
5.7 |
0.600 |
-18.900% |
|
Week 31 |
October 15, 2020 |
5.3 |
-0.447 |
-15.400% |
|
Week 32 |
October 21, 2020 |
5.1 |
-0.167 |
-13.800% |
Distillate fuel inventories:
|
Week |
Date of Report |
Change in Millions |
Relative to 5-Yr Avg |
|
Week 1 |
August 26, 2020 |
1.40 |
24.0% |
|
Week 2 |
September 2, 2020 |
-1.70 |
23.0% |
|
Week 3 |
September 10, 2020 |
-1.70 |
20.0% |
|
Week 4 |
September 16, 2020 |
3.50 |
22.0% |
|
Week 5 |
September 23, 2020 |
-3.40 |
21.0% |
|
Week 6 |
September 30, 2020 |
-3.20 |
21.0% |
|
Week 7 |
October 7, 2020 |
-1.00 |
23.0% |
|
Week 8 |
October 15, 2020 |
-7.20 |
19.0% |
|
Week 9 |
October 21, 2020 |
-3.80 |
19.0% |
Jet fuel delivered:
|
Week |
Date of Report |
Change |
|
Week 0 |
3/7/2020 |
-12.80% |
|
Week 1 |
3/14/2020 |
-12.60% |
|
Week 2 |
3/21/2020 |
-8.90% |
|
Week 3 |
3/28/2020 |
-16.40% |
|
Week 4 |
4/4/2020 |
-0.22% |
|
Week 5 |
4/11/2020 |
-39.70% |
|
Week 6 |
4/18/2020 |
-53.60% |
|
Week 7 |
4/24/2020 |
-61.60% |
|
Week 8 |
5/1/2020 |
-66.60% |
|
Week 9 |
5/8/2020 |
-68.50% |
|
Week 10 |
5/15/2020 |
-67.90% |
|
Week 11 |
May 22, 2020 |
-66.60% |
|
Week 20 |
July 29, 2020 |
-42.10% |
|
Week 21 |
August 5, 2020 |
-40.90% |
|
Week 22 |
August 12, 2020 |
-45.80% |
|
Week 23 |
August 19, 2020 |
-47.60% |
|
Week 24 |
August 26, 2020 |
-45.70% |
|
Week 29 |
September 30, 2020 |
-46.10% |
|
Week 30 |
October 7, 2020 |
-47.50% |
|
Week 31 |
October 15, 2020 |
-41.80% |
|
Week 32 |
October 21, 2020 |
-45.90% |
I don't understand the drop in production to 9.9 MM bopd. I know they do rebenchmarking when a new STEO comes out, but I didn't see anything to drive the estimate that much lower. Maybe a small tweak, I understand. But they rebenchmarked down by 0.6 MM bopd.
ReplyDeleteAnd JUL was at 11.0 MM bopd. (last 914 data.) Just seems like a too huge correction to me, to list 9.9 MM bopd. Almost like a math error, maybe.
I can't answer that. To what extent hurricane/storms shut in off-shore production, I don't know.
DeleteI hadn't thought about the Gulf. Been out of the country (my excuse).
Delete-Reporting dates for this week's report is 10/9 to 10/16
Delete-Shut in production was ~1.8 million barrels per day.
-Hurricane Delta struck the Gulf Coast on 10/9
-Takes a few days to inspect/test pipeline and offshore platforms after a storm, not a simple task of flipping a switch and pump the oil.
That's the reason for the missing 9.9 million barrels.
Perfect. Thank you. Much appreciated.
DeleteNo problem. Since I was born and raise in New Jersey, "You Owe Me"
DeleteI spent a lifetime one summer in New Jersey decades ago. I have fond memories of New Jersey and "left my heart there" as they say, specifically, Union County, the town (city) of Westfield, a "bedroom community" of NYC.
DeleteYes New Jersey has a lot of wonderful small historic towns that date back hundreds of years. I grew up in Hunterdon County on an 85 acre farm. Where I lived it was rural, was able to hunt on the farm and some great fishing on the Delaware river. New Jersey is called the garden state, the farmlands kept NYC well fed. My dad made the best money growing about 5 acres of sweet corn, the set the feeder cattle loose to fatten them up. The best tasting beef is sweet corn fed beef. Grass fed beef does not compare.
DeleteThat's interesting: corn fed vs grass fed. As you are probably aware, the current marketing gimmick is "grass fed." My maternal parents grew up in Iowa -- corn fed cattle. I' sure they would agree -- corn-fed beef much, much better. I'll ask one of my other readers who was raised on grass-fed cattle in North Dakota. Wow, what a great country.
DeleteThe reader is correct: corn-fed is much better tasting. I'll have to see if "Omaha Steaks" advertises corn-fed or grass-fed.
DeleteNot sure if this is GMTA or if my constant mentioning of the fit of MRO/CLR has actually percolated to analysts (or even the companies). But...I told you so.
ReplyDelete"Of those companies left, there’s speculation that billionaire Harold Hamm’s Continental Resources Inc. may come to some agreement with Marathon Oil Corp., Paul Sankey, a New York-based analyst at Sankey Research said in a note."
https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/10/21/us-shale-mergers-reshuffle-the-oil-production-landscape
Note that CLR and MRO are both below 5B market cap, so the combination leaves them still less than Scott Sheffield's magic $10B level.
And they're both "good companies" on some intrinsic level. But given their debt and given $40 WTI strip, you have to really look at it as more like two weak sisters teaming up.
Still wonder who would run it and what would happen to the different organizations. Have to imagine MRO would as the more sophisticated multibasin player. But Harrold's stake would still be 40%+ of the combined company. Maybe he would take it over? Interesting, interesting. [Think he needs a pricey, smart, iconoclastic, ex Navy nuke turned into management consultant to help him?]
I can think of at least one pricey, smart, iconoclastic, ex-Navy-nuke, MBA-turned consultant .... LOL.
ReplyDeleteThe "two-weak-sister" argument is an incredibly good argument. As things consolidate -- it's sort of like musical chairs -- all the "stronger" companies -- made stronger by mergers, acquisitions -- start to take seats away from the table for the other weaker players. To get a seat at the table, these weaker "sisters" may need to join forces. One could see MRO with a subsidiary (CLR) run by Harold Hamm, giving Harold Hamm a directorship on the Board of Directors of MRO.
Delete