Updates
August 18, 2020: See comments. I'm still curious what might explain the record increase in US natural gas storage -- broke through the five-year maximum. See graph below. Some suggest it may be due to decreased usage due to warmer temps in/along the mid-Atlantic states this past winter. That may be be an important contributor but the EIA graph would not have predicted that back in the winter of 2019 - 2020. A google search (US natural gas storage at all-time record) suggests the major reason for the US natural gas underground storage breaking through the five-year maximum was due to less LNG exports.
Good news: it appears exports are forecast to rise again, resulting in a jump in natural gas prices.
Original Post
I find this incredible and for the most part, being reported nowhere in the mainstream media and I doubt most Americans are even aware of this.
From the most recent issue of Focus on Fracking (edited):
The natural gas storage report from the EIA for the week ending August 7th indicated that the quantity of natural gas held in underground storage in the US
- rose by 58 billion cubic feet to 3,332 billion cubic feet by the end of the week:
- which left our gas supplies 608 billion cubic feet, or 22.3% greater than the storage same time one year ago; and,
- 15.3% above the five-year average for the same week.
The 58 billion cubic feet that were added to US natural gas storage this week:
- was more than the average 51 billion cubic feet increase that was forecast by analysts polled by S&P Global Platts;
- more than the 51 billion cubic feet addition of natural gas to storage during the corresponding week of 2019; and,
- it was well above the average of 44 billion cubic feet of natural gas that has been added to natural gas storage during the same week over the past 5 years.
From the EIA (a dynamic link):
Working gas in storage was 3,332 Bcf as of Friday, August 7, 2020, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 58 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 608 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 443 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,889 Bcf. At 3,332 Bcf, total working gas is above the five-year historical range.
what's most remarkable is the complete reversal from the winter of 2019, when supplies were at a 16 year low going in (remember all my hysterics about that?)...that's visible in the 5 year low on the graph up until April 2019...
ReplyDeleteYou are so correct. The past ten years seem to have been so incredibly remarkable -- the swings from shortages to gluts. I remember blogging about the huge propane shortage severely hurting farmers in the midwest not so many years ago, and now there is a glut.
DeleteWhat is so discouraging is that Americans seem to take this for granted and are willing to let politicians in Washington, DC, turn this all around ... back to shortages and putting Saudi Arabia back in the driver's seat.
But on a positive note, the US will never have to worry about affordable, accessible, reliable energy ever again -- whether it's fossil fuel or renewable. My coming-of-age years were during the OPEC embargo/embargoes and I truly thought my grandchildren would never get to drive their own muscle cars. Now, not only will they have a choice of muscle cars running on gasoline (or ethanol) to choose from but also EVs that are ludicrous.
If I owned a home and a three-car garage, I would definitely own a Tesla. I would probably consider a time-share ownership of the Tesla with my neighbors.
the Mid Atlantic had a well above average temperature winter last year in the core months of December through March. IMHO this is the reason for the record storage now.
ReplyDeleteI've been "looking" for an explanation. When I look at the EIA natural gas fill rate chart (above), the fill rate in the core months of December through March were not unusual, and not much above the five-year average, and well within the five-year average. If the warmer temperatures in the mid-Atlantic in those months, what is happening now was not predicted based on the graphic above.
DeleteThe mid-Atlantic temperatures certainly contributed but I think there's more to it, and I'm thinking it's directly related to Covid-19. Imagine the number of buildings/offices in NYC not being air-conditioned. Those folks are working at home (NY state outside the city; Connecticut; and, New Jersey) and using air conditioning, but individuals watch their air conditioning / utility expenses a lot more closely than major enterprises.
I politely disagree with you on the winter data. November was below average, the deep winter was up to 6 degrees above average during December through March. I used Martinsville WV, I live near Harpers Ferry WVC for my data. Looking at the graph, one can see the increase in storage during wintery main source of heat is from a wood pellet stove, last winter I used less than 4 tons, typically I use 5 tons.
DeleteI grew up on a farm in New Jersey, many of the small towns close by have been using NGAS since the 1880s and still are using NGAS today.
We must be looking at different graphs, but that's fine.
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