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Wednesday, August 19, 2020

EIA's Weekly Petroleum Report -- August 19, 2020

Weekly report, link here:

  • US crude oil in storage: decreased by 1.6 million bbls
  • US crude oil in storage: now stands at 512.5 million bbls; 15% above the already-fat five-year average;
  • refiners operating at 80.9% -- still historically low but at least in the "80's"
  • US crude oil imports averaged 5.7 million b/d last week; up by 109,000 b/d from the previous week;
  • US crude oil imports average about 5.6 million bld over the past four week;s about 22% less than the same four-week period last year;
  • jet fuel supplied down about the same as the last report; down about 48% compared with same four-week period last year;

Re-balancing:

Week

Date of Report=

Change

Million Bbls Storage

Week 0

November 21, 2018

4.9

446.9

Week 1

November 28, 2018

3.6

450.5

Week 2

December 6, 2018

-7.3

443.2

Week 3

December 12, 2018

-1.2

442.0

Week 4

December 19, 2018

-0.5

441.5

Week 5

December 28, 2018

0.0

441.4

Week 76

May 20, 2020

-5.0

526.5

Week 77

May 28, 2020

7.9

534.4

Week 78

June 3, 2020

-2.1

532.3

Week 79

June 10, 2020

5.7

538.1

Week 80

June 17, 2020

1.2

539.3

Week 81

June 24, 2020

1.4

540.7

Week 82

July 1, 2020

-7.2

533.5

Week 83

July 8, 2020

5.7

539.2

Week 84

July 15, 2020

-7.5

531.7

Week 85

July 22, 2020

4.9

536.6

Week 86

July 29, 2020

-10.6

526.0

Week 87

August 5, 2020

-7.4

518.6

Week 88

August 12, 2020

-4.5

514.1

Week 89

August 19, 2020

-1.6

512.5

Jet fuel delivered:

Jet Fuel Delivered, Change, Four-Week/Four-Week



Week

Date of Report

Change

Week 0

3/7/2020

-12.80%

Week 1

3/14/2020

-12.60%

Week 2

3/21/2020

-8.90%

Week 3

3/28/2020

-16.40%

Week 4

4/4/2020

-0.22%

Week 5

4/11/2020

-39.70%

Week 6

4/18/2020

-53.60%

Week 7

4/24/2020

-61.60%

Week 8

5/1/2020

-66.60%

Week 9

5/8/2020

-68.50%

Week 10

5/15/2020

-67.90%

Week 11

May 22, 2020

-66.60%

Week 12

June 3, 2020

-68.70%

Week 13

June 10, 2020

-63.70%

Week 14

June 17, 2020

-62.30%

Week 15

June 24, 2020

-62.50%

Week 16

July 1, 2020

-60.00%

Week 17

July 8, 2020

-57.20%

Week 18

July 15, 2020

-51.90%

Week 19

July 22, 2020

-47.70%

Week 20

July 29, 2020

-42.10%

Week 21

August 5, 2020

-40.90%

Week 22

August 12, 2020

-45.80%

Week 23

August 19, 2020

-47.60%

US crude oil imports:

Crude Oil Imports





Week (week-over-week)

Date of Report

Raw Data, millions of bbls

Change (millions of bbls)

Four-week period comparison

Week 0

March 11, 2029

6.4

0.174


Week 1

March 18, 2020

6.5

0.127


Week 2

March 25, 2020

6.1

-0.422


Week 3

April 1, 2020

6.0

-0.070


Week 4

April 8, 2020

5.9

-0.173


Week 5

April 15, 2020

5.7

-0.194


Week 6

April 22, 2020

5.6

-0.700


Week 7

April 29, 2020

5.3

0.365

-19.700%

Week 8

May 6, 2020

5.7

0.410


Week 9

May 13, 2020

5.4

-0.321

-26.100%

Week 10

May 20, 2020

5.2

-0.194


Week 11

May 28, 2020

7.2

2.000

-16.400%

Week 12

June 3, 2020

6.2

-1.000

-18.300%

Week 13

June 10, 2020

6.4

0.000

-13.300%

Week 14

June 17, 2020

6.6

-0.222

-10.000%

Week 15

June 24, 2020

6.5

-0.102

-11.600%

Week 16

July 1, 2020

6.5

-0.600

-11.300%

Week 17

July 8, 2020

7.4

1.400

-8.500%

Week 18

July 15, 2020

7.5

-1.800

-10.200%

Week 19

July 22, 2020

5.9

0.373

-13.500%

Week 20

July 29, 2020

5.1

-0.800

-13.600%

Week 21

August 5, 2020

6.0

0.900

-18.100%

Week 22

August 12, 2020

5.6

-0.389

-20.400%

Week 23

August 19, 2020

5.7

0.109

-21.700%

6 comments:

  1. I see a balanced report considering the bottom line of -707 imports on line 33, 5 million barrels. A lot of product was exported. Interesting to see the SPR drop by 2.7 million barrels. Space in the SPR was leased for contango oil, this report does not show what is actually SPR oil vs. oil space leased.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Agree. It was such a bland report, I am beginning to wonder whether it's even worth the time/trouble to continue reporting on a weekly basis. In the big scheme of things, very little change over the past several months.

      Delete
  2. It will get interesting for the next 3 months;

    -looks like about 10 million barrels oil left of leased space in SPR.
    -without many completions, production decline will continue.
    -several producers have stated that shut-ins are decreasing.
    -wild card is that it is coming to peak of hurricane season, GOM surface temperature is slightly above average. Sizable hurricanes have shut down production, refineries, close ports.

    Although demand is down, balanced with production decline for now. Agree the data is boring, still good data

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It's great data. I agree that next three months could get interesting. If new administration comes into office next year, the data will get really, really interesting.

      Delete
  3. re: refinery utilization low but at least in the "80's"...Aug 16 last year it was at 95.9%, and 17,702,000 barrels per day were being refined, 22.2% more than this week...

    as John noted, over 700K bpd have been pulled from the SPR over the past two weeks, so it appears we're reversing the additions to the SPR of a couple months ago...that means that the reported storage withdrawal numbers are being deflated now by not including those SPR withdrawals, just as the storage builds of two - three months ago were deflated by not including the additions to the SPR back then...what i'm getting at is that if the SPR is now being used as commercial storage virtually every week, thenwhat goes in & out of it for commercial use should be included in the reported commercial inventory totals, and not be invisible to those who aren't watching closely..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 1.Refiners: I made the "at least in the 80's" --somewhat tongue in cheek. It's pretty dismal.

      2. SPR. Agree completely. Guys like me would never catch it, but to anyone paying attention it must be pretty obvious. And irritating.

      Delete

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