Fast And Furious -- Earnings -- July 14, 2020

Updates

Later, 12:30 p.m. CDT: resignation letter over at the NYT -- pretty much says it all --

"A new consensus has emerged in the press, but perhaps especially at this paper: that truth isn’t a process of collective discovery, but an orthodoxy already known to an enlightened few whose job is to inform everyone else." - Bari Weiss in resignation letter from NYT.

Later, 12:27 p.m. CDT: refining and 5G?

Later, 10:53 a.m. CDT: betting on the come -- what will Dak be worth a year from now if there is no 2020 - 2021 season?

The tea leaves suggest Dak / Cowboys won't sign any more contracts between now and next year; he signed "franchise tag" contract for $35 million for one year. Mahomes? A half-billion for ten years. Let's see, Dak or Mahomes? Dak or Mahomes? Dak or Mahomes? Mahomes spent the week golfing, I think -- if the headlines were correct. Dak? Probably in his basement, hoping he doesn't get the "corona virus" this year. 

Later, 10:44 a.m. CDT: this market is crazy --

• Dow, spikes 310 points
• NASDAQ, after being negative, up 13 points; AAPL, up; MSFT, down, despite earnings forecast
• oil, up 1%
• gold, flat at just over $1800

Later, 10:42 a.m. CDT: Philadelphia to ban all major public events through February, 2021. I assume that means no political rallies or on-site voting. Demonstrations and political protests will not be affected. 

Later, 10:39 a.m. CDT: forecast -- 2Q20 earnings --

• MFST: $10.6 billion, reports July 30, 2020
• AAPL: $8.8 billion; AAPL topped MSFT by 5% in 1Q20
• so, EPS numbers to watch -- MSFT, 10; AAPL: 9.

Later, 9:30 a.m. CDT: think about this -- this is absolutely incredible -- it will be re-posted as a stand-alone -- the graphic is amazing -- something is happening here and I don't know what it is, but it is being reported that Chinese crude imports soared to a record 13 million bopd in June vs 11 million bopd in May, and 10 million bopd one year earlier, June, 2019 (numbers rounded).

To a great extent, this was China simply stockpiling huge amounts of oil at very, very cheap prices, but nonetheless, the numbers were staggering. It will be interesting to see what the rest of the year brings.

Later, 9:05 a.m. CDT: absolutely impossible to "call" this market or to make sense of it:

• based on Delta earnings, bank earnings, California back-sliding: the market should be down;
• in fact, it's mixed: Dow up a bit -- very, very surprising; the NASDAQ -- some well-deserved profit-taking
• if there's a story here, this is it -- NASDAQ getting way ahead of the Dow -- today, a bit of convergence; a bit of rotation, as they say
• AAPL: down, surprisingly; profit-taking, no doubt
• BRK-B: with AAPL down and heavy in banks, BRK-B should be down; in fact, it's up
• IMUX: recovers a bit; suggests a trading floor of about $12/share right now
• OPEC basket: up slightly but at $43.46, Saudi is in deep trouble; OPEC may increase production, but summer production is always increased, much of it domestic demand for a/c

Original Post

I talked about this in relation to Warren Buffett / Berkshire Hathaway just a few days ago:

Wells Fargo swings to $2.4 billion loss and slashes dividend by a wider-than-expected margin as the coronavirus pandemic continued to slam the bank's earnings and profit outlook. Dividend to be cut from 51 cents/share to 10 cents/share.

The San Francisco-based bank reported a net loss of $2.4 billion, or 66 cents a share, for the second quarter, vs. income of $6.2 billion, or $1.30 a share, in the comparable year-earlier quarter. Analysts polled by FactSet had been looking for a loss of 16 cents a share. Link here. 

JPMorgan beats; Citigroup mixed. Link here.

Delta: says it will take years to recover. Says business won't return to normal for two years.

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Cognitive Dissonance

Unrelated but important for the archives. Daniel Lewis Lee. US Supreme Court did not stop.

First Federal execution in seventeen years: a self-proclaimed white supremacist.

Interesting, huh? Black lives matter.