- US crude oil in inventory: 539.2 million bbls;
- at 18% above the five-year-average, this is the highest I've seen, on a percentage basis;
- how will shutting down the DAPL affect this;
- the five-year average is already very "fat"
- change week-over-week: increased by a significant 5.7 million bbls
- refineries are operating at 77.5% of capacity; operating at historic lows;
- imports: crude oil imports averaged 7.4 million bpd which is a whopping increase of 1.4 million bpd -- more than double of what I had been seeing
- over the past four weeks, crude oil imports had averaged about 6.6 million bpd but that average is going to trend high
- imports are still 8.5% less than the same four-week period last year
- oil markets starving for heavy oil from Russia, Saudi Arabia; link here;
- jet fuel supplied: down 57.2% same same four-week period last year
Week
|
Date of Report=
|
Change
|
Million Bbls Storage
|
|
Week 0
|
November 21, 2018
|
4.9
|
446.9
|
|
Week 1
|
November 28, 2018
|
3.6
|
450.5
|
|
Week 2
|
December 6, 2018
|
-7.3
|
443.2
|
|
Week 3
|
December 12, 2018
|
-1.2
|
442.0
|
|
Week 4
|
December 19, 2018
|
-0.5
|
441.5
|
|
Week 5
|
December 28, 2018
|
0.0
|
441.4
|
|
Week 71
|
April 8, 2020
|
15.2
|
484.4
|
|
Week 72
|
April 15, 2020
|
19.2
|
503.6
|
|
Week 72
|
April 22, 2020
|
15.0
|
518.6
|
|
Week 73
|
April 29, 2020
|
9.0
|
527.6
|
|
Week 74
|
May 6, 2020
|
4.6
|
532.2
|
|
Week 75
|
May 13, 2020
|
-0.7
|
531.5
|
|
Week 76
|
May 20, 2020
|
-5.0
|
526.5
|
|
Week 77
|
May 28, 2020
|
7.9
|
534.4
|
|
Week 78
|
June 3, 2020
|
-2.1
|
532.3
|
|
Week 79
|
June 10, 2020
|
5.7
|
538.1
|
|
Week 80
|
June 17, 2020
|
1.2
|
539.3
|
15%
|
Week 81
|
June 24, 2020
|
1.4
|
540.7
|
16%
|
Week 82
|
July 1, 2020
|
-7.2
|
533.5
|
15%
|
Week 83
|
July 8, 2020
|
5.7
|
539.2
|
18%
|
Imports:
Crude Oil Imports
|
||||
Week (week-over-week)
|
Date of Report
|
Raw Data, millions of bbls
|
Change (millions of bbls)
|
Four-week period comparison
|
Week 0
|
March 11, 2029
|
6.4
|
0.174
|
|
Week 1
|
March 18, 2020
|
6.5
|
0.127
|
|
Week 2
|
March 25, 2020
|
6.1
|
-0.422
|
|
Week 3
|
April 1, 2020
|
6.0
|
-0.070
|
|
Week 4
|
April 8, 2020
|
5.9
|
-0.173
|
|
Week 5
|
April 15, 2020
|
5.7
|
-0.194
|
|
Week 6
|
April 22, 2020
|
5.6
|
-0.700
|
|
Week 7
|
April 29, 2020
|
5.3
|
0.365
|
-19.700%
|
Week 8
|
May 6, 2020
|
5.7
|
0.410
|
|
Week 9
|
May 13, 2020
|
5.4
|
-0.321
|
-26.100%
|
Week 10
|
May 20, 2020
|
5.2
|
-0.194
|
|
Week 11
|
May 28, 2020
|
7.2
|
2.000
|
-16.400%
|
Week 12
|
June 3, 2020
|
6.2
|
-1.000
|
-18.300%
|
Week 13
|
June 10, 2020
|
6.4
|
0.000
|
-13.300%
|
Week 14
|
June 17, 2020
|
6.6
|
-0.222
|
-10.000%
|
Week 15
|
June 24, 2020
|
6.5
|
-0.102
|
-11.600%
|
Week 16
|
July 1, 2020
|
6.5
|
-0.600
|
-11.300%
|
Week 17
|
July 8, 2020
|
7.4
|
1.400
|
-8.500%
|
Jet fuel:
Jet Fuel Delivered, Change, Four-Week/Four-Week
|
||
Week
|
Date of Report
|
Change
|
Week 0
|
3/7/2020
|
-12.80%
|
Week 1
|
3/14/2020
|
-12.60%
|
Week 2
|
3/21/2020
|
-8.90%
|
Week 3
|
3/28/2020
|
-16.40%
|
Week 4
|
4/4/2020
|
-0.22%
|
Week 5
|
4/11/2020
|
-39.70%
|
Week 6
|
4/18/2020
|
-53.60%
|
Week 7
|
4/24/2020
|
-61.60%
|
Week 8
|
5/1/2020
|
-66.60%
|
Week 9
|
5/8/2020
|
-68.50%
|
Week 10
|
5/15/2020
|
-67.90%
|
Week 11
|
May 22, 2020
|
-66.60%
|
Week 12
|
June 3, 2020
|
-68.70%
|
Week 13
|
June 10, 2020
|
-63.70%
|
Week 14
|
June 17, 2020
|
-62.30%
|
Week 15
|
June 24, 2020
|
-62.50%
|
Week 16
|
July 1, 2020
|
-60.00%
|
Week 17
|
July 8, 2020
|
-57.20%
|
Looks like only the jet report is better. Noticed it says four week so it might be one of those four week averages that makes the graph less choppy maybe the week was closer to -50.00 for the actual week. Did we get refined product report yet?
ReplyDeleteIf you bored and want some fun, look up the US Debt Clock we are at 128% debt to GDP only country worse is greece. Also in left bottom of chart has an oil price based on the formula of money supply and produced oil, value is 101.00 per barrel.
Here is my usual, North Dakota Oil Fund, please tithe to future value activities in your area and review your tax structure competition will be more and more brutal as the days go on, don't think small, think bold.
Coal, get a hold of the feds, lets add some value added processes to the industry, Rare Earths.
As always, you have the best blog around.
Thank you for your kind words.
Delete1. Yes, that jet fuel number is very, very interesting, considering it's a four-week average.
2. I avoid looking at the "US Debt Clock." Wow, amazing how no one seems to care any more. Having said that, when looking at the US Debt Clock one has to compare to that to the alternative. Assuming much of the current jump in debt is due to "saving the Covid-19 economy," without it we would be in a huge, huge depression based on generally accepted criteria for defining a depression.
3. Greece was certainly an interesting story a few years ago, and then all of sudden, it wasn't. Amazing how the press -- in this case, CNBC -- can really push a story.
4. Never enough hours in the day to do all the things I need / want to do.