Sweden's Strategy May Yet Win Out -- June 28, 2020

Note: in a long note like this, there will be content and typographical errors. I did not triple-check arithmetic. I often make simple arithmetic errors. If this is important to you, go to the source, by state; by country.

Note: if the numbers are correct, on a per capita basis, ND has more corona-related deaths than Texas. I will re-check that later.

Dr Fauci might be walking with a big of a swagger this next week after seeing the new corona virus numbers for the US. He and his team can honestly say they predicted this.

New cases, yesterday:

• FL: almost 10,000
• TX: 6,000
• CA: 4,000
• NY: less than a 1,000
• ND: 37

New deaths, yesterday, but this is a lagging indicator, as they say:

• AZ: 44
• TX: 39
• NJ: 34
• CA: 32
• NY: 31
• ND: 0

Per capita, total cases, per million:

• #1: NY: 21,000
• #2: NJ: 20,000
• #3: MA: 16,000
• #7: CA: 5,400
• #33: TX: 5,000
• #36: ND: 4,500

Per capita, deaths, per million:

• #1: NY: 1,700
• #2: NJ: 1,600
• #3: MA: 1,200
• #29: CA: 149
• #37: ND: 102
• #42: TX: 83

Total cases / Total tests (%)

• CA: 210,849 / 3,839,711 = 5.5%
• NY: 416,018 / 3,754,722 = 11.1%
• TX: 148,845 / 1,959,617 = 7.6%
• FL: 132,545 / 1,830,791 = 7.2%
• ND: 3,458 / 102,519 = 3.4%

Total tests / population

• assumption: any individual tested will average three tests (we can discuss that later, if necessary)

• CA: 3,839,711 / 3 / 40 million =  3.2%
• NY: 3,754,722 / 3/ 20 million = 6.3%
• TX: 1,959,617 / 3 / 30 million = 2.2%
• FL: 1,830,791 / 3 / 22 million = 2.8%
• ND: 102,519 / 3 / 0.75 million = 4.5%

Comments, total tests/population:

• in other words, perhaps two percent of residents in each of those five states have been tested
• NY is an outlier (over 6% vs 3% for the other states):
• due to 
• multiple testing of suspect patients'
• multiple testing of healthcare providers and first responders
• start testing earlier

On the other hand, back to comparing Sweden and Norway.

Back in the US, it is interesting that no one is talking about herd immunity any more.

Gonna be a rough month, July.